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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 20, 2020

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DAY 20 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/21/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 33.71°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 31.09°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 32.40°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.092 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 302 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.33 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 6.75 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.08 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 74 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.17 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 100 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 5 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-21 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	20	100	33.71	31.08992	32.39996	0.099999999999966	0.32999999999997	6.75	7.08	T	T	1.71	301.71	74	341.1662149952	0.091512501210714	91	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	31.56	31.56	31.56	0.0006	0.2306	6.75	6.9806	T	T	-0.44	299.56	73	340.18877064411	0.060633768303214	91	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.8	32.84	37.32	0.027	0.257	6.75	7.007	T	T	9.8	309.8	73	340.18877064411	0.30407237842185	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.15	31.75	36.45	0.0382	0.2682	6.75	7.0182	T	T	9.15	309.15	73	340.18877064411	0.28147432611459	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	37.62	32.12	34.87	0.0541	0.2841	6.75	7.0341	T	T	5.62	305.62	73	340.18877064411	0.17474342593046	91	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.23	33.54	37.385	0.0743	0.0843	6.75	6.8343	T	T	9.23	300.23	74	341.1662149952	0.28421147459117	91	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.12	34.14	37.63	0.0862	0.1462	6.75	6.8962	T	T	9.12	309.12	74	341.1662149952	0.28045118069102	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	40.9	34.62	37.76	0.0748	0.1348	6.75	6.8848	T	T	8.9	308.9	74	341.1662149952	0.27300356104021	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	40.8	34.98	37.89	0.1395	0.1995	6.75	6.9495	T	T	8.8	308.8	74	341.1662149952	0.26965095568224	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	40.25	34.76	37.505	0.0986	0.1786	6.75	6.9286	T	T	8.25	307.25	74	341.1662149952	0.25158759727408	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 04:00:33	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.14	34.31	37.725	0.0911	0.2111	6.75	6.9611	T	T	9.14	307.14	74	341.1662149952	0.28113307783706	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	40.84	33.96	37.4	0.1299	0.2699	6.75	7.0199	T	T	8.84	304.84	74	341.1662149952	0.2709895225998	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.28	33.29	37.285	0.1019	0.4919	6.75	7.2419	T	T	9.28	309.28	74	341.1662149952	0.28592862276689	91	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-18 15:59:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.05	33.15	37.1	0.092	0.472	6.75	7.222	T	T	9.05	311.05	74	341.1662149952	0.27807085859954	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.27	33.46	37.365	0.0649	0.4849	6.75	7.2349	T	T	9.27	310.27	74	341.1662149952	0.28558479930533	91	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.94	34.17	38.055	0.1045	0.7945	6.75	7.5445	T	T	9.94	312.94	74	341.1662149952	0.30904343704181	91	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	42.09	33.92	38.005	0.1044	1.2444	6.75	7.9944	T	T	10.09	311.09	74	341.1662149952	0.31440859739889	91	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	42	35.12	38.56	0.1657	1.3857	6.73	8.1157	T	T	10	315	74	341.1662149952	0.31118470590736	91	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	42.78	35.46	39.12	0.4285	1.5185	6.75	8.2685	T	T	10.78	319.78	74	341.1662149952	0.3395814583308	91	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	38.31	35.36	36.835	0.4367	1.4267	6.75	8.1767	T	T	6.31	313.31	74	341.1662149952	0.19330958094384	91	1	5	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	41.9	35.46	38.68	0.2231	1.4731	6.75	8.2231	T	T	9.9	317.9	74	341.1662149952	0.30761951140627	91	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	43.42	38.3	40.86	0.243	1.473	6.77	8.243	T	T	11.42	322.42	74	341.1662149952	0.36359076397652	91	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-17 03:59:15	FORECAST	2021	20	100	45.48	38.3	41.89	0.4549	1.7249	6.78	8.5049	T	T	13.48	324.48	74	341.1662149952	0.44411846623287	91	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	47.43	40.42	43.925	0.5487	1.8387	6.8	8.6387	T	T	15.43	329.43	74	341.1662149952	0.52260006196932	91	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	47.43	40.42	43.925	0.507	1.787	7.28	9.067	T	T	15.43	330.43	74	341.1662149952	0.52260006196932	91	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	46.99	40.17	43.58	0.3815	1.6315	7.27	8.9015	T	T	14.99	325.99	74	341.1662149952	0.5048591267997	91	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	47.83	39.89	43.86	0.2248	1.6548	7.29	8.9448	T	T	15.83	325.83	74	341.1662149952	0.53869032823127	91	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	47.83	39.89	43.86	0.2248	1.3948	7.39	8.7848	T	T	15.83	323.83	74	341.1662149952	0.53869032823127	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	47.79	41.19	44.49	0.2247	1.2347	7.4	8.6347	T	T	15.79	328.79	74	341.1662149952	0.53708371111611	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.81	40.83	44.82	0.2129	1.2429	7.37	8.6129	T	T	16.81	328.81	74	341.1662149952	0.5777921303856	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.81	40.83	44.82	0.2129	1.2229	7.31	8.5329	T	T	16.81	338.81	74	341.1662149952	0.5777921303856	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.93	38.1	43.515	0.2174	1.2774	7.29	8.5674	T	T	16.93	335.93	74	341.1662149952	0.5825357313775	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.04	38.61	43.325	0.035	0.955	7.26	8.215	T	T	16.04	341.04	74	341.1662149952	0.54711410862944	91	3	5	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.04	38.61	43.325	0.035	0.735	7.26	7.995	T	T	16.04	341.04	74	341.1662149952	0.54711410862944	91	3	5	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	48.38	38.86	43.62	0.0392	1.3892	7.38	8.7692	T	T	16.38	344.38	74	341.1662149952	0.56070613784679	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	49.68	35.64	42.66	0.0248	1.2248	7.74	8.9648	T	T	17.68	339.68	74	341.1662149952	0.6118857220809	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	49.68	35.64	42.66	0.0248	1.1648	8.33	9.4948	T	T	17.68	349.68	74	341.1662149952	0.6118857220809	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	20	100	51.5	38.26	44.88	0.0032	1.0732	8.14	9.2132	T	T	19.5	355.5	74	341.1662149952	0.68021822797986	91	3	5	2	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	20	100	45.43	37.2	41.315	0.4016	0.5816	7.73	8.3116	T	T	13.43	352.43	74	341.1662149952	0.44212163044469	91	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	45.43	37.2	41.315	0.4016	0.5816	7.66	8.2416	T	T	13.43	348.43	74	341.1662149952	0.44212163044469	91	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	50.92	40.82	45.87	0.3951	0.5051	7.59	8.0951	T	T	18.92	363.92	74	341.1662149952	0.65896793289391	91	3	5	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	55.3	42.41	48.855	0.0248	0.1148	5.9	6.0148	T	F	23.3	366.3	74	341.1662149952	0.80308696110978	91	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	20	100	55.3	43.98	49.64	0.0248	0.1148	6.64	6.7548	T	T	23.3	378.3	74	341.1662149952	0.80308696110978	91	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	20	100	56.42	47.59	52.005	0.025	0.115	6.52	6.635	T	F	24.42	378.42	74	341.1662149952	0.83298618470026	91	4	5	2	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	20	100	50.76	43.87	47.315	0.0008	0.0008	6.44	6.4408	T	F	18.76	367.76	74	341.1662149952	0.6530122857211	91	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	20	100	45.19	44.39	44.79	0.0002	0.0002	7.04	7.0402	T	T	13.19	361.19	74	341.1662149952	0.43255815197684	91	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	20	100	39.66	39.57	39.615	0	0	7.92	7.92	T	T	7.66	355.66	74	341.1662149952	0.23294431009276	91	1	5	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H