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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 21, 2020

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DAY 21 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 30.61°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 23.45°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 27.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.065 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 267 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.34 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 6.76 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 7.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 2 in SWE DAY: 73 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.19 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.68 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 101 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 5 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-22 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	21	101	30.61004	23.45	27.03002	0.020000000000039	0.34000000000004	6.76	7.1	T	T	-1.38996	266.61004	73	340.18877064411	0.064754534796152	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	23.79	23.79	23.79	0.0002	0.3202	6.76	7.0802	T	T	-8.21	259.79	72	339.20760493838	0.015057062583726	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	35.25	26.13	30.69	0.145	0.465	6.76	7.225	T	T	3.25	271.25	72	339.20760493838	0.1415694580457	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	32.97	26.16	29.565	0.1491	0.4691	6.76	7.2291	T	T	0.97	268.97	72	339.20760493838	0.09839536182601	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	35.9	25.54	30.72	0.1529	0.4729	6.76	7.2329	T	T	3.9	271.9	72	339.20760493838	0.15592924240394	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	33.34	24.59	28.965	0.1766	0.3966	6.76	7.1566	T	T	1.34	267.34	73	340.18877064411	0.10465805830647	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	33.23	25.09	29.16	0.2108	0.4608	6.76	7.2208	T	T	1.23	277.23	73	340.18877064411	0.10276684063376	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	33.17	25.91	29.54	0.2183	0.4683	6.76	7.2283	T	T	1.17	277.17	73	340.18877064411	0.10174576122688	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.19	25.73	29.96	0.2764	0.5264	6.76	7.2864	T	T	2.19	278.19	73	340.18877064411	0.12012334632253	92	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-10-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.07	26.28	30.175	0.2744	0.5344	6.76	7.2944	T	T	2.07	277.07	73	340.18877064411	0.11784765039366	92	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-10-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.21	25.75	29.98	0.2694	0.5394	6.76	7.2994	T	T	2.21	274.21	73	340.18877064411	0.12050561030799	92	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-10-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	35.01	25.53	30.27	0.198	0.268	6.76	7.028	T	T	3.01	269.01	73	340.18877064411	0.13650070016801	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	35.55	25.65	30.6	0.179	0.319	6.76	7.079	T	T	3.55	278.55	73	340.18877064411	0.14808214910598	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	35.53	26.1	30.815	0.1862	0.3062	6.76	7.0662	T	T	3.53	278.53	73	340.18877064411	0.14764184760277	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.07	25.74	30.905	0.1971	0.3871	6.76	7.1471	T	T	4.07	279.07	73	340.18877064411	0.15983757152353	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.15	25.99	31.07	0.2147	0.3847	6.76	7.1447	T	T	4.15	277.15	73	340.18877064411	0.1616987116831	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 04:00:33	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.18	26.01	31.095	0.2024	0.4024	6.76	7.1624	T	T	4.18	277.18	73	340.18877064411	0.16240025669632	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.92	25.91	30.415	0.1662	0.4262	6.76	7.1862	T	T	2.92	273.92	73	340.18877064411	0.13463222176032	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.86	26.22	30.54	0.1409	0.3709	7.01	7.3809	T	T	2.86	277.86	73	340.18877064411	0.13339633728051	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 15:59:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	33.93	25.57	29.75	0.1649	0.3749	7.01	7.3849	T	T	1.93	278.93	73	340.18877064411	0.11523131464635	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	34.76	26.18	30.47	0.2472	0.4672	7.01	7.4772	T	T	2.76	278.76	73	340.18877064411	0.13135386702656	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.02	27.4	31.71	0.1999	0.4699	7.27	7.7399	T	T	4.02	283.02	73	340.18877064411	0.15868148488081	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.92	26.69	31.805	0.1681	0.4481	7.71	8.1581	T	T	4.92	281.92	73	340.18877064411	0.18032860091768	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-10-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	38.6	27.59	33.095	0.2598	0.5798	7.8	8.3798	T	T	6.6	287.6	73	340.18877064411	0.2254143987108	92	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	39.58	27.59	33.585	0.2425	0.8625	7.65	8.5125	T	T	7.58	293.58	73	340.18877064411	0.25441153052041	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	40.86	26.52	33.69	0.2259	0.8559	7.55	8.4059	T	T	8.86	287.86	73	340.18877064411	0.29503297939193	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	42.02	30.85	36.435	0.0354	0.4554	7.8	8.2554	T	T	10.02	294.02	73	340.18877064411	0.33423538648853	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	42.02	30.85	36.435	0.0354	0.4454	7.83	8.2754	T	T	10.02	298.02	73	340.18877064411	0.33423538648853	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-17 03:59:15	FORECAST	2021	21	101	42.79	29.33	36.06	0.0612	0.6812	7.88	8.5612	T	T	10.79	300.79	73	340.18877064411	0.36133018449196	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	42.77	33.66	38.215	0.0201	0.7501	7.91	8.6601	T	T	10.77	305.77	73	340.18877064411	0.36061683614409	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	42.77	33.1	37.935	0.0221	0.7121	8.38	9.0921	T	T	10.77	306.77	73	340.18877064411	0.36061683614409	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	44.88	34.34	39.61	0.0219	0.5319	8.39	8.9219	T	T	12.88	304.88	73	340.18877064411	0.43808066880239	92	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	43.57	33.48	38.525	0.0238	0.4338	8.53	8.9638	T	T	11.57	303.57	73	340.18877064411	0.3895041027013	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	43.57	33.48	38.525	0.0238	0.3938	8.41	8.8038	T	T	11.57	301.57	73	340.18877064411	0.3895041027013	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	45.51	34.69	40.1	0.0032	0.3232	8.31	8.6332	T	T	13.51	308.51	73	340.18877064411	0.46182728953802	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	41.43	30.46	35.945	0.049	0.309	8.35	8.659	T	T	9.43	304.43	73	340.18877064411	0.31403469060352	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	41.43	30.46	35.945	0.049	0.299	8.28	8.579	T	T	9.43	314.43	73	340.18877064411	0.31403469060352	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	39.45	29.6	34.525	0.0551	0.3051	8.32	8.6251	T	T	7.45	309.45	73	340.18877064411	0.25045592689308	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	43.57	30.23	36.9	0.0478	0.1278	8.14	8.2678	T	T	11.57	318.57	73	340.18877064411	0.3895041027013	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	43.57	30.23	36.9	0.0478	0.1278	7.92	8.0478	T	T	11.57	318.57	73	340.18877064411	0.3895041027013	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	21	101	43.66	30.51	37.085	0.0209	0.2109	8.58	8.7909	T	T	11.66	321.66	73	340.18877064411	0.39279585280091	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	47.08	32.24	39.66	0.0287	0.0787	8.91	8.9887	T	T	15.08	321.08	73	340.18877064411	0.52141581601021	92	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	47.08	34.38	40.73	0.0287	0.0787	9.44	9.5187	T	T	15.08	331.08	73	340.18877064411	0.52141581601021	92	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	21	101	48.93	38.19	43.56	0.0101	0.2101	9.01	9.2201	T	T	16.93	338.93	73	340.18877064411	0.59092120262043	92	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.74	32.33	34.535	0.0249	0.4949	7.84	8.3349	T	T	4.74	322.74	73	340.18877064411	0.17585753711018	92	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	21	101	36.74	33.39	35.065	0.016	0.486	7.77	8.256	T	T	4.74	318.74	73	340.18877064411	0.17585753711018	92	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	21	101	40.94	38.98	39.96	0.0108	0.4108	7.7	8.1108	T	T	8.94	338.94	73	340.18877064411	0.2976677818849	92	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H