Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 19, 2020

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DAY 19 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/20/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.297 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 337 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.22 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.73 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 75 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.14 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 99 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-20 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	19	99	42.20006	32.75996	37.48001	0	0.21999999999997	0.24999999999997	6.73	6.98	T	T	10.20006	337.20006	75	342.13995210598	0	0.29745141034284	90	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	33.17	33.17	33.17	0	0.0017	0.0317	6.73	6.7617	T	T	1.17	328.17	74	341.1662149952	0	0.073936097916328	90	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	H
2020-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.34	33.45	37.895	0	0.0521	0.0821	6.73	6.8121	T	T	10.34	337.34	74	341.1662149952	0	0.30237863881209	90	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	41.45	33.78	37.615	0	0.0716	0.1016	6.73	6.8316	T	T	9.45	336.45	74	341.1662149952	0	0.27168881957768	90	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-19 04:00:33	FORECAST	2021	19	99	39.8	34.82	37.31	0	0.1127	0.1427	6.73	6.8727	T	T	7.8	334.8	74	341.1662149952	0	0.21921458551031	90	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2020-10-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	41.23	34.51	37.87	0	0.1347	0.1647	6.73	6.8947	T	T	9.23	333.23	75	342.13995210598	0	0.26434846904703	90	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	40.47	34.91	37.69	0	0.1321	0.4121	6.73	7.1421	T	T	8.47	337.47	75	342.13995210598	0	0.23979013013093	90	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2020-10-18 15:59:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.06	34.58	38.32	0	0.1218	0.4018	6.73	7.1318	T	T	10.06	339.06	75	342.13995210598	0	0.29255696245557	90	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	41.45	34.26	37.855	0	0.1576	0.4376	6.73	7.1676	T	T	9.45	338.45	75	342.13995210598	0	0.27168881957768	90	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2020-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.82	34.2	38.51	0	0.1657	0.7057	6.73	7.4357	T	T	10.82	339.82	75	342.13995210598	0	0.31955002492925	90	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	41.42	34.13	37.775	0	0.1782	1.1582	6.73	7.8882	T	T	9.42	338.42	75	342.13995210598	0	0.27068192601525	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-18 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	43.12	34.61	38.865	0	0.1524	1.2224	6.73	7.9524	T	T	11.12	342.12	75	342.13995210598	0	0.33048507133324	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.78	35.8	39.29	0	0.1857	1.1057	6.73	7.8357	T	T	10.78	345.78	75	342.13995210598	0	0.31810352749468	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.4	35.94	39.17	0	0.1909	1.0109	6.73	7.7409	T	T	10.4	344.4	75	342.13995210598	0	0.3045023568217	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.77	37.21	39.99	0	0.1967	1.2667	6.73	7.9967	T	T	10.77	344.77	75	342.13995210598	0	0.31774233475556	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	44.84	37.07	40.955	0	0.1698	1.2698	6.73	7.9998	T	T	12.84	347.84	75	342.13995210598	0	0.39574338544081	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 03:59:15	FORECAST	2021	19	99	45.45	37.05	41.25	0	0.1697	1.3197	6.73	8.0497	T	T	13.45	348.45	75	342.13995210598	0	0.41972256750479	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	44.89	38.46	41.675	0	0.1802	1.3602	6.73	8.0902	T	T	12.89	350.89	75	342.13995210598	0	0.39769543103531	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	46.16	39.85	43.005	0	0.177	1.317	7.24	8.557	T	T	14.16	352.16	75	342.13995210598	0	0.44800677999791	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	43.29	38.59	40.94	0	0.1331	1.2831	7.24	8.5231	T	T	11.29	348.29	75	342.13995210598	0	0.33674718891852	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	42.81	37.09	39.95	0	0.1934	1.4834	7.24	8.7234	T	T	10.81	346.81	75	342.13995210598	0	0.31918814217442	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	43.88	39.95	41.915	0	0.1519	1.1819	7.38	8.5619	T	T	11.88	344.88	75	342.13995210598	0	0.35882391218623	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	49.24	37.84	43.54	0	0.0958	1.0258	7.38	8.4058	T	T	17.24	350.24	75	342.13995210598	0	0.57190430083487	90	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	48.96	41.02	44.99	0	0.0473	1.0673	7.33	8.3973	T	T	16.96	348.96	75	342.13995210598	0	0.56074872653849	90	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	48.96	41.02	44.99	0	0.0446	1.0446	7.28	8.3246	T	T	16.96	358.96	75	342.13995210598	0	0.56074872653849	90	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	46.5	38.53	42.515	0	0.0312	1.0812	7.27	8.3512	T	T	14.5	355.5	75	342.13995210598	0	0.46165476139725	90	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	48.03	38.78	43.405	0	0.0429	0.9629	7.22	8.1829	T	T	16.03	362.03	75	342.13995210598	0	0.52339775857317	90	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	48.03	38.78	43.405	0	0.0429	0.7429	7.22	7.9629	T	T	16.03	362.03	75	342.13995210598	0	0.52339775857317	90	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	47.18	37.91	42.545	0	0.1493	1.5193	7.21	8.7293	T	T	15.18	365.18	75	342.13995210598	0	0.48907052247506	90	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	43.98	34.96	39.47	0	0.0308	1.7508	7.19	8.9408	T	T	11.98	358.98	75	342.13995210598	0	0.36261538574047	90	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	43.98	34.96	39.47	0	0.0308	1.9808	7.49	9.4708	T	T	11.98	368.98	75	342.13995210598	0	0.36261538574047	90	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	19	99	46.21	37.79	42	0	0.1972	2.0172	7.19	9.2072	T	T	14.21	373.21	75	342.13995210598	0	0.45001037395876	90	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	19	99	47.79	40.79	44.29	0	0.0655	0.7455	7.16	7.9055	T	T	15.79	375.79	75	342.13995210598	0	0.51371191344309	90	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	47.79	40.79	44.29	0	0.0655	0.5955	7.24	7.8355	T	T	15.79	371.79	75	342.13995210598	0	0.51371191344309	90	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	52.17	43.69	47.93	0	0.0047	0.4447	7.26	7.7047	T	T	20.17	382.17	75	342.13995210598	0	0.68366109446223	90	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	57.5	45.9	51.7	0	0.0756	0.1956	5.79	5.9856	T	F	25.5	379.5	75	342.13995210598	0	0.84564234012898	90	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	19	99	57.5	45.9	51.7	0	0.0756	0.1456	6.58	6.7256	T	T	25.5	391.5	75	342.13995210598	0	0.84564234012898	90	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	56.63	44.38	50.505	0	0.0759	0.1459	6.46	6.6059	T	F	24.63	390.63	75	342.13995210598	0	0.82375043102131	90	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	58.82	42.6	50.71	0	0.0018	0.0118	6.43	6.4418	T	F	26.82	385.82	75	342.13995210598	0	0.87528527539125	90	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	58.82	42.6	50.71	0	0.0018	0.0118	7.03	7.0418	T	T	26.82	384.82	75	342.13995210598	0	0.87528527539125	90	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	19	99	55.98	39.11	47.545	0	0.0018	0.0318	7.89	7.9218	T	T	23.98	384.98	75	342.13995210598	0	0.8061761319736	90	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	59.41	41.87	50.64	0	0.0014	0.0914	8.05	8.1414	T	T	27.41	389.41	75	342.13995210598	0	0.88716090265385	90	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	WET	H
2020-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	59.41	41.87	50.64	0	0.0014	0.0914	7.9	7.9914	T	T	27.41	396.41	75	342.13995210598	0	0.88716090265385	90	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	WET	H
2020-10-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	60.11	43.11	51.61	0	0.0007	0.0207	8.19	8.2107	T	T	28.11	393.11	75	342.13995210598	0	0.90017867500116	90	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	19	99	52.95	47.47	50.21	0	0.0007	0.0007	7.76	7.7607	T	T	20.95	409.95	75	342.13995210598	0	0.71122259616901	90	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	19	99	48.18	47.51	47.845	0	0.0002	0.0002	7.73	7.7302	T	T	16.18	408.18	75	342.13995210598	0	0.52944476310378	90	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	19	99	47.52	47.25	47.385	0	0.0002	0.0002	7.6	7.6002	T	T	15.52	414.52	75	342.13995210598	0	0.50280594521656	90	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	H