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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 16, 2020

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DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 44.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 35.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 39.80°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.343 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 430 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 6.66 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.73 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 78 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-17 03:59:15	OBSERVATION	2021	16	96	44.22002	35.38994	39.80498	0.0099999999999909	0.069999999999991	6.66	6.73	T	T	12.22002	430.22002	78	345.03906033777	0.34320978408984	93	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	45.34	45.34	45.34	0.0063	0.0663	6.66	6.7263	T	T	13.34	431.34	77	344.07636079638	0.38184631374787	93	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	44.83	38.51	41.67	0.5247	0.5847	6.66	7.2447	T	T	12.83	430.83	77	344.07636079638	0.36407943339772	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	43.14	38.7	40.92	0.6593	0.7193	6.66	7.3793	T	T	11.14	429.14	77	344.07636079638	0.30743760286232	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	43.04	38.32	40.68	0.6576	0.7176	6.66	7.3776	T	T	11.04	429.04	77	344.07636079638	0.30420963561077	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	44.77	39.58	42.175	0.626	0.666	6.66	7.326	T	T	12.77	428.77	78	345.03906033777	0.36200744487297	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	45.75	40.72	43.235	0.578	0.618	6.66	7.278	T	T	13.75	438.75	78	345.03906033777	0.39631419923023	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	44.91	40.39	42.65	0.5724	0.6124	6.66	7.2724	T	T	12.91	437.91	78	345.03906033777	0.36684826490193	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.68	40.63	43.655	0.5237	0.5637	6.66	7.2237	T	T	14.68	439.68	78	345.03906033777	0.42963539052547	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	47.15	40.07	43.61	0.5064	0.5564	6.66	7.2164	T	T	15.15	441.15	78	345.03906033777	0.44668384111871	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.85	40.53	43.69	0.5029	0.5529	6.66	7.2129	T	T	14.85	438.85	78	345.03906033777	0.43578843466466	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	47.32	39.88	43.6	0.5216	0.5316	6.66	7.1916	T	T	15.32	440.32	78	345.03906033777	0.45287636051312	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.82	40.85	43.835	0.7172	0.8272	6.66	7.4872	T	T	14.82	448.82	78	345.03906033777	0.43470142932125	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.38	40.51	43.445	0.4155	0.5255	6.66	7.1855	T	T	14.38	448.38	78	345.03906033777	0.41881955660797	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.66	41.4	44.03	0.3925	0.5025	6.66	7.1625	T	T	14.66	447.66	78	345.03906033777	0.42891259534166	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.73	41.23	43.98	0.3692	0.5792	6.66	7.2392	T	T	14.73	443.73	78	345.03906033777	0.43144340541183	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.42	40.1	43.26	0.3163	0.5963	6.66	7.2563	T	T	14.42	444.42	78	345.03906033777	0.42025831473955	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	47.35	40.83	44.09	0.2178	0.6278	5.16	5.7878	T	F	15.35	435.35	78	345.03906033777	0.45397039254926	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	16	96	50.42	42.83	46.625	0.1731	0.7431	5.84	6.5831	T	T	18.42	447.42	78	345.03906033777	0.56628492869432	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	45.73	42.92	44.325	0.0692	0.6192	5.84	6.4592	T	T	13.73	446.73	78	345.03906033777	0.39560494723872	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	45.74	42.23	43.985	0.1747	0.5947	5.84	6.4347	T	T	13.74	446.74	78	345.03906033777	0.39595953019095	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	47.33	41.74	44.535	0.18	0.59	6.44	7.03	T	T	15.33	446.33	78	345.03906033777	0.45324099853358	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	16	96	51.23	42.02	46.625	0.144	0.624	7.27	7.894	T	T	19.23	448.23	78	345.03906033777	0.59540665795019	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	53.43	44.03	48.73	0.1515	0.6515	7.4	8.0515	T	T	21.43	452.43	78	345.03906033777	0.67146583099592	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	53.43	43.59	48.51	0.1517	0.6317	7.27	7.9017	T	T	21.43	459.43	78	345.03906033777	0.67146583099592	93	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	48.37	42.01	45.19	0.1549	0.7249	7.47	8.1949	T	T	16.37	449.37	78	345.03906033777	0.49132111027731	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.06	46.8	53.93	0.0016	0.4216	7.34	7.7616	T	T	29.06	460.06	78	345.03906033777	0.87421037916887	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.06	46.8	53.93	0.0016	0.3816	7.35	7.7316	T	T	29.06	463.06	78	345.03906033777	0.87421037916887	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.75	47.12	54.435	0.0016	0.3116	7.29	7.6016	T	T	29.75	468.75	78	345.03906033777	0.88688208544573	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	60.95	44.89	52.92	0	0.18	5.27	5.45	T	F	28.95	474.95	78	345.03906033777	0.87210241642419	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2020-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	60.95	44.89	52.92	0	0.14	7.24	7.38	T	T	28.95	466.95	78	345.03906033777	0.87210241642419	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-11 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.37	47.08	54.225	0	0.07	7	7.07	T	T	29.37	465.37	78	345.03906033777	0.88002058222656	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 11:59:27	FORECAST	2021	16	96	63.3	46.58	54.94	0.0012	0.0912	6.85	6.9412	T	T	31.3	464.3	78	345.03906033777	0.91197512154771	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-11 07:59:57	FORECAST	2021	16	96	63.25	46.58	54.915	0.0012	0.0912	7.26	7.3512	T	T	31.25	466.25	78	345.03906033777	0.91123626472125	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	16	96	62.77	46.77	54.77	0.0012	0.0712	7.39	7.4612	T	T	30.77	471.77	78	345.03906033777	0.90390774847582	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	59.17	46.08	52.625	0.0142	0.1142	5.55	5.6642	T	F	27.17	459.17	78	345.03906033777	0.83457601494613	93	4	4	3	2	5	2	55	WET	MH
2020-10-10 20:00:21	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.84	48.4	55.12	0.0143	0.1043	5.83	5.9343	T	F	29.84	468.84	78	345.03906033777	0.88846546476125	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2020-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	59.71	48.84	54.275	0.0163	0.0863	5.17	5.2563	T	F	27.71	468.71	78	345.03906033777	0.84664395384066	93	4	4	3	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	63.39	48.63	56.01	0.001	0.051	5	5.051	T	F	31.39	469.39	78	345.03906033777	0.91329353065408	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	63.39	48.63	56.01	0.001	0.051	5.57	5.621	T	F	31.39	468.39	78	345.03906033777	0.91329353065408	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	16	96	60.96	48.43	54.695	0.019	0.069	6.09	6.159	T	F	28.96	467.96	78	345.03906033777	0.87229505454115	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	65.63	48.69	57.16	0	0.04	6.54	6.58	T	F	33.63	475.63	78	345.03906033777	0.94156139370832	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	65.63	48.69	57.16	0	0.04	6.32	6.36	T	F	33.63	490.63	78	345.03906033777	0.94156139370832	93	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	16	96	61.72	48.56	55.14	0	0.1	6.14	6.24	T	F	29.72	483.72	78	345.03906033777	0.88635075620253	93	5	4	3	2	5	2	60	WET	MH
2020-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	16	96	49.78	43.28	46.53	0.2731	1.1831	6.91	8.0931	T	T	17.78	462.78	78	345.03906033777	0.54300953408884	93	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-09 08:00:17	FORECAST	2021	16	96	45.92	43.28	44.6	0.1865	1.0965	6.66	7.7565	T	T	13.92	446.92	78	345.03906033777	0.40235647265912	93	2	4	3	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2020-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	16	96	46.23	45.91	46.07	0.075	0.835	6.36	7.195	T	T	14.23	448.23	78	345.03906033777	0.41343402738149	93	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H