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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 17, 2020

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DAY 17 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/18/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 39.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 32.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 36.33°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.220 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 395 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.05 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 6.70 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.75 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 77 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.08 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 97 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 17.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-18 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	17	97	39.79994	32.86994	36.33494	0.020000000000039	0.050000000000039	6.7	6.75	T	T	7.79994	394.79994	77	344.07636079638	0.21999943389701	94	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	H
2020-10-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	42.13	42.13	42.13	0.0022	0.0322	6.7	6.7322	T	T	10.13	397.13	76	343.10999603722	0.29281706386923	94	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	H
2020-10-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.22	37.4	41.81	0.0247	0.0547	6.7	6.7547	T	T	14.22	401.22	76	343.10999603722	0.44166953820432	94	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.18	37.25	41.715	0.0433	0.0733	6.7	6.7733	T	T	14.18	401.18	76	343.10999603722	0.44013210949991	94	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 03:59:15	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.72	36.72	41.22	0.0512	0.0812	6.7	6.7812	T	T	13.72	400.72	76	343.10999603722	0.42252222003192	94	2	4	3	1	5	2	22.5	WET	H
2020-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.71	36.17	41.44	0.0719	0.1019	6.7	6.8019	T	T	14.71	402.71	77	344.07636079638	0.460567409552	94	2	4	3	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2020-10-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.7	35.84	41.27	0.0388	0.5788	6.7	7.2788	T	T	14.7	402.7	77	344.07636079638	0.46018069881645	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.59	37.82	42.205	0.0346	0.5746	6.7	7.2746	T	T	14.59	402.59	77	344.07636079638	0.45592944613508	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.56	38.47	42.015	0.0521	0.5921	6.7	7.2921	T	T	13.56	401.56	77	344.07636079638	0.41643130315609	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.26	37.33	41.295	0.0148	0.6948	6.7	7.3948	T	T	13.26	399.26	77	344.07636079638	0.40506583769954	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.5	37.41	41.455	0.0155	0.6955	6.7	7.3955	T	T	13.5	399.5	77	344.07636079638	0.41415228928622	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	44.78	37.91	41.345	0.0439	0.6739	6.7	7.3739	T	T	12.78	398.78	77	344.07636079638	0.38705020513002	94	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2020-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.2	38.35	41.775	0.0317	0.6117	6.7	7.3117	T	T	13.2	409.2	77	344.07636079638	0.40280199329969	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.12	38.11	42.115	0.0223	0.5923	6.7	7.2923	T	T	14.12	409.12	77	344.07636079638	0.43782766493987	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.49	36.28	41.385	0.0418	0.5618	6.7	7.2618	T	T	14.49	411.49	77	344.07636079638	0.45206903133237	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	45.42	38.06	41.74	0.0431	0.5631	6.7	7.2631	T	T	13.42	411.42	77	344.07636079638	0.41111810715171	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.05	40.05	44.55	0.1718	0.6818	6.7	7.3818	T	T	17.05	413.05	77	344.07636079638	0.55130005984892	94	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	48.41	40.88	44.645	0.5467	1.0767	6.66	7.7367	T	T	16.41	413.41	77	344.07636079638	0.52655034850608	94	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	48.76	37.98	43.37	0.8376	1.5676	6.76	8.3276	T	T	16.76	422.76	77	344.07636079638	0.54010422185821	94	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	17	97	48.16	39.87	44.015	0.9498	1.3798	6.76	8.1398	T	T	16.16	421.16	77	344.07636079638	0.51684923089721	94	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.94	42.84	44.89	0.5665	0.9665	6.76	7.7265	T	T	14.94	419.94	77	344.07636079638	0.46947131374822	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	46.94	42.99	44.965	0.4174	0.7974	6.86	7.6574	T	T	14.94	415.94	77	344.07636079638	0.46947131374822	94	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	51.9	42.94	47.42	0.3261	0.6561	6.93	7.5861	T	T	19.9	420.9	77	344.07636079638	0.6578422294583	94	3	4	3	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	51.28	42.09	46.685	0.1111	0.3511	5.55	5.9011	T	F	19.28	411.28	77	344.07636079638	0.63539736122037	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	17	97	51.28	41.54	46.41	0.0567	0.2367	6.4	6.6367	T	T	19.28	423.28	77	344.07636079638	0.63539736122037	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	51.16	41.71	46.435	0.0648	0.1448	6.38	6.5248	T	F	19.16	423.16	77	344.07636079638	0.63099619240535	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	47.75	35.09	41.42	0.0081	0.1781	6.26	6.4381	T	F	15.75	419.75	77	344.07636079638	0.50092043722346	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	47.75	35.09	41.42	0.0081	0.1881	6.85	7.0381	T	T	15.75	418.75	77	344.07636079638	0.50092043722346	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	17	97	50.4	37.9	44.15	0.0258	0.1758	7.74	7.9158	T	T	18.4	423.4	77	344.07636079638	0.60274436892459	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.7	37.29	43.495	0.0357	0.1957	7.89	8.0857	T	T	17.7	426.7	77	344.07636079638	0.57623322599161	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.7	37.29	43.495	0.0357	0.1857	7.75	7.9357	T	T	17.7	433.7	77	344.07636079638	0.57623322599161	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.77	38.3	44.035	0.0207	0.1807	8.03	8.2107	T	T	17.77	423.77	77	344.07636079638	0.57890204499252	94	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	17	97	58.88	43.96	51.42	0.0045	0.0145	7.75	7.7645	T	T	26.88	443.88	77	344.07636079638	0.86143138544877	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	58.88	43.96	51.42	0.0045	0.0145	7.72	7.7345	T	T	26.88	446.88	77	344.07636079638	0.86143138544877	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	59.17	45.3	52.235	0.0045	0.0045	7.6	7.6045	T	T	27.17	453.17	77	344.07636079638	0.86758607563055	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	64.99	48.84	56.915	0.0006	0.0106	5.44	5.4506	T	F	32.99	464.99	77	344.07636079638	0.95384263367519	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	64.99	48.84	56.915	0.0006	0.0106	7.37	7.3806	T	T	32.99	456.99	77	344.07636079638	0.95384263367519	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	17	97	66.11	50.04	58.075	0.0006	0.0006	7.07	7.0706	T	T	34.11	456.11	77	344.07636079638	0.96350198247874	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 11:59:27	FORECAST	2021	17	97	67.96	54	60.98	0.0024	0.0024	6.94	6.9424	T	T	35.96	456.96	77	344.07636079638	0.97580559733329	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 07:59:57	FORECAST	2021	17	97	67.96	54	60.98	0.0024	0.0024	7.35	7.3524	T	T	35.96	458.96	77	344.07636079638	0.97580559733329	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	17	97	68.06	53.25	60.655	0.0024	0.0024	7.46	7.4624	T	T	36.06	465.06	77	344.07636079638	0.97635707503058	94	5	4	3	1	5	1	60	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	62.07	49.83	55.95	0.0027	0.0127	5.65	5.6627	T	F	30.07	446.07	77	344.07636079638	0.91894598419929	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-10 20:00:21	FORECAST	2021	17	97	64.01	51.57	57.79	0.0026	0.0126	5.92	5.9326	T	F	32.01	458.01	77	344.07636079638	0.94380192630344	94	5	4	3	1	5	2	30	WET	MH
2020-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	52.99	43.9	48.445	0.0203	0.0403	5.24	5.2803	T	F	20.99	446.99	77	344.07636079638	0.69594320042939	94	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.39	46.35	47.87	0.0114	0.0114	5.05	5.0614	T	F	17.39	443.39	77	344.07636079638	0.5643737386075	94	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.39	46.75	48.07	0.0025	0.0025	5.62	5.6225	T	F	17.39	442.39	77	344.07636079638	0.5643737386075	94	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	17	97	49.21	46.98	48.095	0.0055	0.0255	6.14	6.1655	T	F	17.21	442.21	77	344.07636079638	0.55746020988837	94	3	4	3	1	5	2	25	WET	MH