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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 15, 2020

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DAY 15 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/16/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 43.16°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 28.46°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 35.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.320 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 458 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 1.59 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 5.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 6.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 79 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 346.00 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 95 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 3 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 112.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-16 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2021	15	95	43.16	28.45994	35.80997	0.019999999999982	1.59	5.13	6.72	T	T	11.16	458.16	79	345.99810856281	0.31953832138567	95	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	40.76	40.76	40.76	0.0007	1.5707	5.13	6.7007	T	T	8.76	455.76	78	345.03906033777	0.24617249080121	95	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	50.32	39.58	44.95	0.0034	1.5734	5.13	6.7034	T	T	18.32	465.32	78	345.03906033777	0.57146309641392	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	50.67	34.56	42.615	0.0066	1.5766	5.13	6.7066	T	T	18.67	465.67	78	345.03906033777	0.58387995334321	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.47	31.08	40.275	0.0062	1.5762	5.13	6.7062	T	T	17.47	464.47	78	345.03906033777	0.54103595903183	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	50.02	33.52	41.77	0.0085	1.5385	5.13	6.6685	T	T	18.02	465.02	79	345.99810856281	0.56076299062892	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.92	32.64	41.28	0.0077	1.6377	5.13	6.7677	T	T	17.92	473.92	79	345.99810856281	0.55718599891115	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 15:59:19	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.65	33.88	41.765	0.0079	1.6379	5.13	6.7679	T	T	17.65	473.65	79	345.99810856281	0.5475056274353	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 11:59:21	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.37	35.88	42.625	0.0095	1.6395	5.13	6.7695	T	T	17.37	473.37	79	345.99810856281	0.53743688533167	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.49	35.95	42.72	0.0107	1.7407	5.13	6.8707	T	T	17.49	469.49	79	345.99810856281	0.54175537989247	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.31	35.96	42.635	0.0114	1.8114	5.13	6.9414	T	T	17.31	470.31	79	345.99810856281	0.53527594996471	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.48	36.19	42.835	0.016	0.436	5.13	5.566	T	F	17.48	460.48	79	345.99810856281	0.54139568641025	95	3	4	3	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2020-10-13 20:00:26	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.59	36.27	42.93	0.0147	1.2847	5.13	6.4147	T	T	17.59	468.59	79	345.99810856281	0.54535038614992	95	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.89	35.94	42.915	0.0088	1.2588	5.13	6.3888	T	T	17.89	472.89	79	345.99810856281	0.55611197824244	95	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	50.38	36.22	43.3	0.0044	1.1344	5.13	6.2644	T	T	18.38	473.38	79	345.99810856281	0.57359708909287	95	3	4	3	4	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.77	36.29	43.03	0.0039	1.7239	5.13	6.8539	T	T	17.77	470.77	79	345.99810856281	0.55181185103277	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-13 03:59:55	FORECAST	2021	15	95	50.78	36.39	43.585	0.0079	2.6179	5.13	7.7479	T	T	18.78	468.78	79	345.99810856281	0.58776578063646	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	51.23	35.93	43.58	0.006	3.286	4.61	7.896	T	T	19.23	471.23	79	345.99810856281	0.60356905804434	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	53.43	36.2	44.815	0.0046	3.1246	4.63	7.7546	T	T	21.43	478.43	79	345.99810856281	0.67797358165872	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-12 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	47.64	36.31	41.975	0.0059	3.4059	4.63	8.0359	T	T	15.64	472.64	79	345.99810856281	0.47494146520708	95	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.25	34.9	42.075	0.0084	3.1284	4.63	7.7584	T	T	17.25	471.25	79	345.99810856281	0.53311397369866	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.25	37.38	43.315	0.0073	3.0873	4.64	7.7273	T	T	17.25	474.25	79	345.99810856281	0.53311397369866	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	54.28	35.36	44.82	0.0027	2.9127	4.69	7.6027	T	T	22.28	479.28	79	345.99810856281	0.70509123961577	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	55.41	36.46	45.935	0.0073	2.6473	2.8	5.4473	T	T	23.41	486.41	79	345.99810856281	0.73941769720198	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	55.41	37.8	46.605	0.0085	2.5985	4.78	7.3785	T	T	23.41	478.41	79	345.99810856281	0.73941769720198	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 15:59:26	FORECAST	2021	15	95	55.57	36.67	46.12	0.0016	2.3716	4.7	7.0716	T	T	23.57	475.57	79	345.99810856281	0.74410665740033	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 11:59:27	FORECAST	2021	15	95	54.18	35.68	44.93	0.0018	2.0818	4.86	6.9418	T	T	22.18	473.18	79	345.99810856281	0.7019559491352	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 07:59:57	FORECAST	2021	15	95	54.21	34.34	44.275	0.0018	2.3818	4.97	7.3518	T	T	22.21	475.21	79	345.99810856281	0.7028981288866	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	15	95	54.66	36.49	45.575	0.0018	2.3218	5.14	7.4618	T	T	22.66	480.66	79	345.99810856281	0.71686455077211	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	52.17	36.32	44.245	0.0018	2.2418	3.41	5.6518	T	T	20.17	472.17	79	345.99810856281	0.63600934513839	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-10 20:00:21	FORECAST	2021	15	95	53.63	36.67	45.15	0.0012	2.0912	3.83	5.9212	T	T	21.63	478.63	79	345.99810856281	0.68444725263238	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	55.59	38.9	47.245	0.0012	1.4812	3.76	5.2412	T	F	23.59	480.59	79	345.99810856281	0.74468967033514	95	4	4	3	4	5	2	110	WET	MH
2020-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	56.2	38.53	47.365	0.0014	1.6214	3.43	5.0514	T	F	24.2	478.2	79	345.99810856281	0.76213322313573	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2020-10-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	56.2	38.53	47.365	0.0014	1.5914	4.03	5.6214	T	F	24.2	477.2	79	345.99810856281	0.76213322313573	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2020-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	15	95	55.7	36.45	46.075	0.0014	1.6214	4.52	6.1414	T	T	23.7	478.7	79	345.99810856281	0.74788380528633	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	59.41	42.66	51.035	0.0017	1.5517	5.03	6.5817	T	T	27.41	482.41	79	345.99810856281	0.84238652348567	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	59.41	42.66	51.035	0.0017	1.5517	4.81	6.3617	T	T	27.41	497.41	79	345.99810856281	0.84238652348567	95	4	4	3	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	59.32	41.68	50.5	0.0019	1.4619	4.78	6.2419	T	T	27.32	494.32	79	345.99810856281	0.84041128134926	95	4	4	3	4	5	2	110	WET	H
2020-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	51.99	37.85	44.92	0.0284	3.3884	4.43	7.8184	T	T	19.99	484.99	79	345.99810856281	0.62986434191424	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-09 08:00:17	FORECAST	2021	15	95	51.99	37.85	44.92	0.0284	3.3884	4.18	7.5684	T	T	19.99	472.99	79	345.99810856281	0.62986434191424	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2021	15	95	51.54	38	44.77	0.0284	2.8484	4.27	7.1184	T	T	19.54	473.54	79	345.99810856281	0.61435930178361	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.53	33.75	41.64	0.001	1.681	5.04	6.721	T	T	17.53	476.53	79	345.99810856281	0.54319380901369	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	49.53	33.75	41.64	0.001	1.681	5.1	6.781	T	T	17.53	485.53	79	345.99810856281	0.54319380901369	95	3	4	3	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	15	95	47.19	34.88	41.035	0.0033	1.5333	5.42	6.9533	T	T	15.19	481.19	79	345.99810856281	0.45872421896409	95	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	15	95	41.57	34.58	38.075	0.0036	2.2036	5.31	7.5136	T	T	9.57	475.57	79	345.99810856281	0.26989112637802	95	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	36.51	34.58	35.545	0.0034	2.2034	5.52	7.7234	T	T	4.51	466.51	79	345.99810856281	0.14184623009314	95	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2020-10-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	15	95	35.87	35.31	35.59	0.0019	1.7019	5.57	7.2719	T	T	3.87	463.87	79	345.99810856281	0.12920840599855	95	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	WET	H