Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 19, 2020

[ Saturday, January 18, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, January 20, 2020 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.54°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.22°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.841 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -82 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.72 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.28 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 132 in SWE DAY: 19 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.57 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.01 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-20 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	111	-174	43.53998	31.22006	37.38002	131.90754458333	0	0.72	14.28	15	T	T	11.53998	-82.46002	19	371.56990550045	49.012873875625	0.84132181918121	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-20 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	112	-174	36.32	36.32	36.32	136.976384	0.0002	0.7202	14.28	15.0002	T	T	4.32	-89.68	19	374.46519379881	51.29288818042	0.59334764424294	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	43.06	35.53	39.295	136.55599733333	0.0268	0.7468	14.28	15.0268	T	T	11.06	-82.94	19	374.22648668387	51.102871117665	0.82871718499181	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	42.55	33.67	38.11	136.534732	0.092	0.812	14.28	15.092	T	T	10.55	-83.45	19	374.21440486836	51.093263479241	0.81464400027894	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-19 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	38.25	33.19	35.72	136.84676391667	0.1056	0.8256	14.28	15.1056	T	T	6.25	-87.75	19	374.39161912677	51.234281515019	0.6701339218249	91	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.31	31.55	36.43	133.57600533333	0.1204	0.2404	14.28	14.5204	T	T	9.31	-84.69	19	372.52703806976	49.760673624017	0.77755093703531	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-18 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.64	33.51	37.575	133.487828	0.1345	0.4045	14.28	14.6845	T	T	9.64	-82.36	19	372.47655553823	49.721086379719	0.78781405437855	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-18 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.76	32.62	37.19	133.51844133333	0.2231	0.4931	14.28	14.7731	T	T	9.76	-82.24	19	372.4940833029	49.734829408491	0.79147648004534	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.96	33.12	37.54	133.65534741821	0.1406	0.4106	14.28	14.6906	T	T	9.96	-82.04	19	372.57245265754	49.796300598398	0.79749716808059	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-18 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.52	34.46	37.99	133.86817032774	0.1922	0.6722	14.28	14.9522	T	T	9.52	-79.48	19	372.69422509642	49.891894005372	0.78411436914258	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.81	33.27	37.54	134.80136265595	0.2139	1.0639	14.28	15.3439	T	T	9.81	-80.19	19	373.22740011773	50.311562116409	0.79299144430243	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	42.27	32.39	37.33	138.48764118953	0.2178	1.1678	14.28	15.4478	T	T	10.27	-83.73	19	375.32122511112	51.977351154004	0.80662156743074	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.59	33.85	37.72	138.2065181244	0.1982	1.2982	14.28	15.5782	T	T	9.59	-75.41	19	375.1622354047	51.849866287048	0.78627703457107	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-17 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.74	33.25	37.495	138.16932589227	0.1588	1.2988	14.28	15.5788	T	T	9.74	-76.26	19	375.14119275959	51.833005718014	0.79086867219441	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	41.02	33.86	37.44	137.46915468604	0.1885	1.4085	14.28	15.6885	T	T	9.02	-75.98	19	374.74467824746	51.515834141768	0.7683030954637	91	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	40.82	33.66	37.24	138.75588603611	0.1613	1.5913	14.28	15.8713	T	T	8.82	-75.18	19	375.47282570701	52.099064613457	0.76180266368743	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	40.8	32.33	36.565	139.4817852796	0.117	1.697	14.28	15.977	T	T	8.8	-79.2	19	375.88255554684	52.42876990313	0.76114717858952	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	40.5	33.31	36.905	140.23987471903	0.1114	1.6514	13.93	15.5814	T	T	8.5	-84.5	19	376.30964928353	52.773618071084	0.75119768670509	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	42.62	33.18	37.9	140.69902938831	0.078	1.698	13.98	15.678	T	T	10.62	-77.38	19	376.56792902478	52.982742112554	0.81661693043417	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	42.38	33.1	37.74	138.69390436969	0.1179	1.7279	13.98	15.7079	T	T	10.38	-75.62	19	375.43780547683	52.07093508957	0.80979812775634	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	42.09	33.46	37.775	139.42514961017	0.145	1.845	13.98	15.825	T	T	10.09	-75.91	19	375.85061501876	52.403028230065	0.80135439169396	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	36.22	32.16	34.19	146.06988191412	0.1327	1.8527	14.06	15.9127	T	T	4.22	-77.78	19	379.56683151173	55.443282257435	0.5892394365036	91	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.22	31.32	35.27	147.31789519995	0.13	1.82	14.22	16.04	T	T	7.22	-80.78	19	380.25784174318	56.018784878882	0.70639203519698	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.24	31.36	35.3	152.15506517091	0.0771	1.9471	14.04	15.9871	T	T	7.24	-74.76	19	382.91552279406	58.262536325684	0.70711989250732	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.69	31.38	35.535	149.68939687474	0.0321	1.6821	14.21	15.8921	T	T	7.69	-76.31	19	381.56489360972	57.116218793014	0.72327098362422	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.45	31.52	35.485	150.25287465131	0.116	1.796	14.25	16.046	T	T	7.45	-76.55	19	381.87429820463	57.377711060699	0.71471138312918	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.47	31.53	35.5	151.64157657433	0.116	1.906	14.24	16.146	T	T	7.47	-72.53	19	382.63494398302	58.023366158016	0.71542947064327	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.39	29.53	34.46	151.56645440332	0.1073	1.5973	14.33	15.9273	T	T	7.39	-70.61	19	382.59386527101	57.988395635586	0.71255196234685	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.25	29.62	34.435	150.18769279411	0.0753	1.5653	14.31	15.8753	T	T	7.25	-71.75	19	381.83852961438	57.347447782681	0.70748350714378	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	39.34	29.79	34.565	152.9312777369	0.2454	1.5954	14.15	15.7454	T	T	7.34	-81.66	19	383.33896431036	58.624517618322	0.71074656722365	91	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-01-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.16	27.8	29.98	151.96339854914	0.1933	1.5333	14.31	15.8433	T	T	0.16	-86.84	19	382.81083572842	58.173235598729	0.41925749982846	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.72	29.87	31.295	154.14647283496	0.2509	1.8609	14.3	16.1609	T	T	0.72	-80.28	19	384.00020642966	59.192277389028	0.4425259180111	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.76	29.9	31.33	155.19375329951	0.2509	1.7909	14.29	16.0809	T	T	0.76	-85.24	19	384.56844352395	59.682620151032	0.44419655193941	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.56	28.11	30.335	157.2130897213	0.2392	1.9092	14.37	16.2792	T	T	0.56	-82.44	19	385.6598441539	60.63077568087	0.43585388755399	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.63	28.6	30.615	156.84681422264	0.2579	1.7879	14.49	16.2779	T	T	0.63	-80.37	19	385.46229681803	60.458533258849	0.43877077041464	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.68	28.63	30.655	151.62921202656	0.2579	1.6679	14.32	15.9879	T	T	0.68	-83.32	19	382.62818327298	58.017609928838	0.44085630540758	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	31.07	24.61	27.84	150.59205004414	0.2322	1.5222	14.57	16.0922	T	T	-0.93	-78.93	19	382.06032539116	57.535247641187	0.3748361996526	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-13 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	31.06	22.91	26.985	150.74847649176	0.2243	1.5443	14.5	16.0443	T	T	-0.94	-78.94	19	382.1460664618	57.607937316435	0.37443528504049	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	32.78	25.96	29.37	152.14979913171	0.052	1.422	14.57	15.992	T	T	0.78	-83.22	19	382.91264719845	58.260082356234	0.44503224275121	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	31.62	22.84	27.23	156.73655680178	0.006	2.146	14.49	16.636	T	T	-0.38	-89.38	19	385.40279449004	60.406706990152	0.39708348696198	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	31.67	22.85	27.26	157.30702718898	0.006	2.146	14.58	16.726	T	T	-0.33	-89.33	19	385.71047886197	60.674968785415	0.3991238905507	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	31.71	22.85	27.28	151.79384050439	0.006	2.146	13.23	15.376	T	T	-0.29	-99.29	19	382.71818172858	58.09426263544	0.40075820258592	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	30.81	25.64	28.225	156.19767594204	0.6279	2.8879	13.96	16.8479	T	T	-1.19	-94.19	19	385.11173822371	60.153558488541	0.36445754791036	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	30.87	27.69	29.28	159.23939468652	0.6899	3.3199	13.71	17.0299	T	T	-1.13	-96.13	19	386.74939861661	61.585740131085	0.3668441391266	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	29.56	27.72	28.64	163.45236880178	0.5485	3.1785	13.75	16.9285	T	T	-2.44	-97.44	19	388.99686507808	63.582459053479	0.31605052528992	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	29.68	28.42	29.05	155.75011360128	0.3905	3.0205	14.17	17.1905	T	T	-2.32	-97.32	19	384.8697012031	59.943499684072	0.3205791095715	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	111	-174	30.16	29.64	29.9	157.67479861151	0.1314	3.1414	14.57	17.7114	T	T	-1.84	-97.84	19	385.90860090553	60.848060930227	0.33895607544356	91	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L