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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 18, 2020

[ Friday, January 17, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 19, 2020 ]

DAY 110 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.372
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.60 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 373.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-19 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020110-17530.6199423.6899427.15494137.196247916670.600000000000021.0714.4615.53TT-1.38006-97.3800618373.73974452109 51.2756906456270.3722937248956990 2114128WETL
2020-01-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020111-17530.8130.8130.811340.00170.471714.4614.9317TT-1.19-97.1918371.9124990949249.8362748787190.38050243831259902112124WETL
2020-01-18 12:00:10FORECAST2020110-17533.1327.4930.31134.102466084880.1530.62314.4615.083TT1.13-94.8718371.9713078199949.8822696914780.4839593008644902113126WETL
2020-01-18 08:00:10FORECAST2020110-17535.8226.3131.065134.401990327740.35530.825314.4615.2853TT3.82-92.1818372.1431270983650.0167769688070.60481016329189903113127.5WETL
2020-01-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020110-17535.226.2130.705135.288879989290.73251.202514.4615.6625TT3.2-92.818372.6511171579650.4155522670580.577413584540059031141210WETL
2020-01-18 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17532.1223.0127.565138.918250522860.94381.303814.4615.7638TT0.12-96.8818374.71805499452.0551766390960.43836148886251902114128WETL
2020-01-17 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17535.5526.5131.03138.696003457730.92641.446414.4615.9064TT3.55-88.4518374.5920315347951.9544177009860.592934482344639031141210WETL
2020-01-17 16:00:10FORECAST2020110-17535.4726.3730.92138.622840558940.96921.489214.4615.9492TT3.47-88.5318374.550529518651.9212583347220.589398757983279031141210WETL
2020-01-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17536.0527.3531.7137.999366686041.04981.569814.4616.0298TT4.05-87.9518374.1965478048751.6388866131730.614850739393149031151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17536.0727.2131.64139.240560702771.1961.77614.4616.236TT4.07-86.9318374.9006921088652.2013825770960.615720312728149031151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 04:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.2827.4529.865139.88079727961.24531.925314.4616.3853TT0.28-90.7218375.2630390808652.4920930961950.445546291004099021151210WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17536.0127.431.705140.72290938571.18861.538614.4615.9986TT4.01-95.9918375.7387427541452.8750490492860.61310986365239031151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.9926.6729.83141.188132054981.22611.666114.4616.1261TT0.99-91.0118376.001108020553.0868940920160.477612570762159021151210WETL
2020-01-16 16:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.8828.0230.45139.186068369691.2261.65614.4616.116TT0.88-89.1218374.869824521252.1766570255410.472629753688279021151210WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17533.2427.9330.585139.92119494351.2561.74614.4616.206TT1.24-88.7618375.2858827021752.5104491531160.488948950981879021151210WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.8827.7930.335146.076139757591.31041.850414.4616.3104TT0.88-85.1218378.7390706810355.3247414204610.472629753688279021151210WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020110-17532.3527.9930.17147.364159797311.25581.975814.4616.4358TT0.35-90.6518379.4548996189755.9180524633220.448695417370749021151210WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17532.3927.9930.19152.250207633241.25372.203714.2416.4437TT0.39-84.6118382.1491726702758.1822908859210.450496383461959021151210WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.1326.6829.405149.802497291751.27721.877214.5116.3872TT0.13-86.8718380.8036316167257.0453349939510.438809969604399021151210WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020110-17532.326.5729.435150.141565283271.32241.952414.5116.4624TT0.3-86.718380.9905216184557.2025132738840.446445699785489021151210WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17536.4526.7231.585151.527425021071.29242.052414.5116.5624TT4.45-82.5518381.7527188589657.8460064834890.632127023172949031151212.5WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17533.2227.2630.24151.472374804611.11271.762714.5916.3527TT1.22-80.7818381.7224934011257.8204125918030.488041590293389021151210WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020110-17535.3527.3431.345150.139744198351.13651.746514.5816.3265TT3.35-81.6518380.9895182892557.2016688181990.584081610924739031151212.5WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020110-17530.9925.828.395151.88412142340.95641.676414.3516.0264TT-1.01-92.0118381.9484615254758.0119065078160.388326637861529021151210WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17530.4925.0127.75150.865544162740.9041.65414.5316.184TT-1.51-89.5118381.3890313131557.5384637467590.366714545059459021151210WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020110-17531.4225.0628.24152.750854648841.241.9314.5116.44TT-0.58-83.5818382.4233564211958.4154945310150.407196517075659021151210WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:10FORECAST2020110-17531.4425.0928.265153.766986979581.241.8514.5116.36TT-0.56-88.5618382.9787794176258.8894929881640.408079820288929021151210WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17530.5424.6727.605155.680928334491.20481.914814.6616.5748TT-1.46-86.4618384.0210642721459.7847557858870.368858118133729021151210WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020110-17530.8625.1828.02155.181821888511.09761.787614.7616.5476TT-1.14-84.1418383.7497515098459.5509855885580.382671082449369021151210WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17530.8825.228.04149.919299479161.09761.727614.5316.2576TT-1.12-87.1218380.8680296835157.0994682041590.3835395751839021151210WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17529.1325.2327.18149.010175791540.88621.736214.6516.3862TT-2.87-80.8718380.3662859804956.6784471391280.310195263251469021151210WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020110-17528.5123.3325.92149.072654735050.79581.775814.5716.3458TT-3.49-81.4918380.4008050840356.7073578772280.285751868570379021151210WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17527.8925.5626.725151.784338285740.88481.844814.6316.4748TT-4.11-87.1118381.8937218507957.96548586660.262263516297249021151210WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17528.924.9726.935156.690554295561.50422.524214.6417.1642TT-3.1-92.118384.5688434199760.2583052402790.301021371057579021151210WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020110-17528.922526.96157.259494568491.50422.534214.7217.2542TT-3.08-92.0818384.8769073970460.525547928340.301814235159089021151210WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17528.9525.0226.985151.744537991011.50422.534213.3715.9042TT-3.05-102.0518381.8718840786257.9469726212680.303005286083979021151210WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17528.1625.1226.64150.726492339851.52552.685514.0616.7455TT-3.84-95.8418381.3125479453257.4739028369680.272369855242489021151210WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020110-17528.5623.4526.005153.777107896391.872.9213.9516.87TT-3.44-98.4418382.9843043540958.8942186932840.28768878902519021151210WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17528.5723.4726.02158.610851763031.872.9213.9916.91TT-3.43-98.4318385.6068444786461.1614300484130.288076915542579021151210WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17528.9325.2227.075153.298475000681.49492.814914.5217.3349TT-3.07-98.0718382.7228665344958.6708317876270.302211018538889021151210WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020110-17529.6326.2527.94156.841497168661.86513.095115.0118.1051TT-2.37-99.3718384.6506178199860.3291787857350.330544406871819021151210WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020110-17529.6426.2727.955147.590433115781.86513.095114.1317.2251TT-2.36-103.3618379.5804114238856.0224373243170.330956805393659021151210WETL
2020-01-11 20:00:11FORECAST2020110-17530.2326.8828.555148.889845497671.44353.653514.5818.2335TT-1.77-90.7718380.2997890438156.6227768335280.355636183296859021151210WETL
2020-01-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020110-17530.6127.4329.02147.868712730541.40343.593414.5118.1034TT-1.39-93.3918379.7346717826656.1508770956550.371865970399569021151210WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020110-17529.9627.4528.705150.295082445241.27293.462914.5217.9829TT-2.04-95.0418381.0750854221557.2737113813480.344259454155859021151210WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020110-17529.4128.1928.8149.533338649330.25022.550215.0817.6302TT-2.59-95.5918380.6551601262556.9206369677750.321524387126259021151210WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020110-17525.2823.7224.5151.775580037570.11222.322215.5517.8722TT-6.72-107.7218381.888916532457.9614118166240.17530262389756901115127.5WETL