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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 20, 2020

[ Sunday, January 19, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 21, 2020 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/21/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.668
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -75

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 369.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-21 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020112-17338.2699430.9599634.61495126.725468333330.0199999999999820.6199999999999813.9314.55TT6.26994-74.7300620369.44094533338 46.8175768188820.6678763116868291 3113127.5WETL
2020-01-21 00:00:13FORECAST2020113-17332.7632.7632.76131.995845333330.00070.600713.9314.5307TT0.76-80.2420372.4788918207149.1656661946980.46413197496096912113126WETL
2020-01-20 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17342.053237.025131.7161160.02750.627513.9314.5575TT10.05-70.9520372.3186703911649.0403691782070.78630093898185914113129WETL
2020-01-20 08:00:10FORECAST2020112-17341.7831.7936.785131.689602666670.03240.632413.9314.5624TT9.78-71.2220372.3034783606349.028497136730.7787453168278914113129WETL
2020-01-20 04:00:11FORECAST2020112-17340.1131.735.905131.453100583330.03390.633913.9314.5639TT8.11-72.8920372.1679183679448.922626807110.72876687892448914113129WETL
2020-01-20 00:00:13FORECAST2020112-17340.3232.5136.415136.428569333330.03940.639413.9314.5694TT8.32-80.6820375.0027003024351.1610818983970.73534665633289914113129WETL
2020-01-19 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17341.2632.3636.81136.583440.04370.673713.9314.6037TT9.26-72.7420375.0903645026451.2311322946240.76377229391902914113129WETL
2020-01-19 16:00:10FORECAST2020112-17341.2832.436.84136.548726666670.04040.670413.9314.6004TT9.28-72.7220375.0707180950551.2154289658310.76435829374552914113129WETL
2020-01-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17340.2232.2436.23136.234940.05240.682413.9314.6124TT8.22-73.7820374.8930483231251.0735319447180.73222356611654914113129WETL
2020-01-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17340.1832.2936.235136.210941333330.0450.73513.9314.665TT8.18-73.8220374.8794541602851.0626833376970.7309691579046914113129WETL
2020-01-19 04:00:11FORECAST2020112-17336.732.6234.66136.518217250.06140.771413.9314.7014TT4.7-82.320375.0534495117851.2016283008110.61207363985666913113127.5WETL
2020-01-19 00:00:13FORECAST2020112-17336.832.8134.805133.251121333330.07770.197713.9314.1277TT4.8-79.220373.196480128949.7288494548290.61571251796941913112125WETL
2020-01-18 20:00:10FORECAST2020112-17338.1932.6435.415133.021630666670.05160.331613.9314.2616TT6.19-74.8120373.0654608507649.625775947780.66511101241162913112125WETL
2020-01-18 16:00:10FORECAST2020112-17339.9332.9936.46133.0706120.05620.426213.9314.3562TT7.93-73.0720373.0934313573749.6477712439060.72306297819754914112126WETL
2020-01-18 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17337.6432.8835.26133.329096751540.06950.359513.9314.2895TT5.64-75.3620373.2409799533749.7638827278430.64584907874604913112125WETL
2020-01-18 08:00:10FORECAST2020112-17337.7932.5635.175133.464511661070.08260.632613.9314.5626TT5.79-72.2120373.3182390052549.8247364630060.65114197790746913113127.5WETL
2020-01-18 04:00:12FORECAST2020112-17337.3732.3934.88134.539946655950.10651.046513.9314.9765TT5.37-73.6320373.9308705265550.3086393736570.636251136530589131141210WETL
2020-01-18 00:00:12FORECAST2020112-17337.6331.7534.69138.227865189530.11381.273813.8215.0938TT5.63-77.3720376.0190638320151.9763124640640.645495201804589131141210WETL
2020-01-17 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17333.7731.0932.43138.09007812440.19851.328513.9815.3085TT1.77-72.2320375.9413965414151.9137768185970.502408716063729131141210WETL
2020-01-17 16:00:10FORECAST2020112-17333.8731.0132.44138.05496322560.29861.428613.9815.4086TT1.87-73.1320375.9215987616251.8978424927460.506203056489949131141210WETL
2020-01-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17338.3731.8935.13137.185598686040.361.613.9815.58TT6.37-68.6320375.4308875877751.5037110789580.671324758855439131151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17335.5631.9733.765138.610144702770.31111.671114.0415.7111TT3.56-70.4420376.2344034309452.1499051017240.569969023643299131151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 04:00:11FORECAST2020112-17335.729.9932.845139.414599946260.3711.74114.1415.881TT3.7-74.320376.6868739340452.5156498345220.575193229550939131151212.5WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020112-17333.3230.0231.67140.205052052360.30561.605613.8115.4156TT1.32-81.6820377.1305686600652.8756110095210.485336443112369121151210WETL
2020-01-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17334.1829.731.94140.653584658530.24081.550813.915.4508TT2.18-73.8220377.3819420539753.0801229352880.517960419956569131151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 16:00:11FORECAST2020112-17334.3529.7832.065138.613763036360.23061.580613.8915.4706TT2.35-72.6520376.2364406541652.1515488304770.524402033986869131151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17336.2929.7833.035139.325984276840.23341.643413.9515.5934TT4.29-70.7120376.6370768388952.4753314457290.597054397060489131151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17336.6531.0233.835146.041972056320.11091.55091415.5509TT4.65-72.3520380.3795034739555.5513728171380.610250482411719131151212.5WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020112-17337.3231.2634.29147.140957504550.03091.420914.1815.6009TT5.32-74.6820380.9858485228156.058622547330.634464110131939131141210WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020112-17337.3431.334.32151.975710402530.03091.360914.1915.5509TT5.34-68.6620383.633324249458.3029469868860.635179273344819131141210WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17337.7730.734.235150.020184779960.11011.420114.1115.5301TT5.77-69.2320382.5664066391157.3926830146040.650437927181889131141210WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020112-17337.8830.734.29150.366412469650.07661.516614.1415.6566TT5.88-70.1220382.75569170657.5536002141720.654303743363179131151212.5WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17337.930.7334.315151.760032616360.07661.486614.2715.7566TT5.9-66.120383.5159121837258.2023873418950.655004908935439131141210WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17336.9328.4232.675152.763921763730.31331.533314.2415.7733TT4.93-65.0720384.061869188158.6707973370840.620427815811549131151212.5WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020112-17336.7529.4633.105151.802921254580.36221.582214.1915.7722TT4.75-66.2520383.5392653013158.2223808885760.613894330959659131151212.5WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:13FORECAST2020112-17336.7829.3533.065156.41304685620.90082.110814.0716.1808TT4.78-76.2220386.0347301648360.3808683373930.614985546065899131151212.5WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17330.6828.4629.57157.815293503310.95182.041814.2816.3218TT-1.32-87.3220386.7879898288461.0410601383920.386722842080739121151210WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020112-17330.3127.5728.94160.518933832350.96512.455114.216.6551TT-1.69-80.6920388.2327814801662.3187121619640.373323417607679121151210WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17330.3427.628.97161.760550608780.96512.455114.1216.5751TT-1.66-85.6620388.892968807862.9075407622330.374404415223479121151210WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17330.1226.0128.065163.682843014040.8862.32614.3716.696TT-1.88-82.8820389.9109839702963.8217383786580.366500544852789121151210WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020112-17329.5625.7427.65163.840229490460.8982.25814.4516.708TT-2.44-81.4420389.9941133854663.8967250370.346642143123119121151210WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:13FORECAST2020112-17329.5725.7627.665158.922965573120.8982.25814.1616.418TT-2.43-84.4320387.3811159694961.5637557568940.346993280003639121151210WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020112-17334.5927.1430.865150.5350873774801.1214.515.62TT2.59-75.4120382.8478471570957.6320341240710.533484838642499131141210WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020112-17334.2627.9631.11150.700588491760.00041.020414.5515.5704TT2.26-75.7420382.9382302406157.7090166532520.520992454897949131141210WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020112-17331.4426.9429.19152.1497991317100.9314.5915.52TT-0.56-82.5620383.7280488946758.3841455605260.41465665194491912113126WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020112-17329.527.3328.415156.7433580920.00071.510714.6616.1707TT-2.5-90.520386.2124085760760.5362298570140.344538095399479121151210WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020112-17329.532929.265157.309127188980.00021.510214.7516.2602TT-2.47-90.4720386.5163964958160.8025569769850.345589523324489121151210WETL