Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 17, 2020

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DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.89°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.67°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.116 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 261 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.12 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.06 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.76 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 134 in SWE DAY: 17 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 370.93 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 49.62 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-18 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	109	-176	23.45	13.89002	18.67001	133.78254083333	0.11999999999995	0.69999999999995	15.06	15.76	T	T	-8.55	261.45	17	370.92677969522	49.623527050753	0.11648117597729	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	110	-176	22.48	22.48	22.48	137.06172637647	0.0122	0.5922	15.06	15.6522	T	T	-9.52	260.48	17	372.8094181886	51.097902466338	0.096121094053255	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.48	21.08	24.28	137.44484888308	0.1656	0.7456	15.06	15.8056	T	T	-4.52	265.48	17	373.02835430506	51.270825786563	0.23235250059179	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.99	17.39	22.69	137.66668465945	0.232	0.812	15.06	15.872	T	T	-4.01	265.99	17	373.15502543778	51.371015216032	0.25055975184408	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-17 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.92	14.9	21.41	138.16300297263	0.3282	0.9082	15.06	15.9682	T	T	-4.08	265.92	17	373.43817134509	51.595339177643	0.24801683618211	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.88	15.84	21.86	139.19449516753	0.3472	0.5772	15.06	15.6372	T	T	-4.12	256.88	17	374.02548941109	52.062289178367	0.24656993858973	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.17	16.91	21.54	139.49313681291	0.3895	0.6695	15.06	15.7295	T	T	-5.83	265.17	17	374.19524497952	52.197668502669	0.18912362594346	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.49	18.19	23.34	139.20050036969	0.3843	0.6643	15.06	15.7243	T	T	-3.51	267.49	17	374.02890419075	52.065010616079	0.26911707359675	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.16	19.41	23.785	139.8187185341	0.4447	0.7247	15.06	15.7847	T	T	-3.84	267.16	17	374.38016732078	52.345355239374	0.25679237243043	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.52	19.06	23.79	140.67567200591	0.4055	0.7655	15.06	15.8255	T	T	-3.48	270.52	17	374.86616528773	52.73454971413	0.2702520241992	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.62	18.28	23.45	142.13019682423	0.4331	0.9531	15.06	16.0131	T	T	-3.38	265.62	17	375.6886419847	53.396700629911	0.27405237274458	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.51	18.96	23.735	147.03907444308	0.6234	0.9634	15.06	16.0234	T	T	-3.49	271.51	17	378.44209377775	55.645775199381	0.26987344188642	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.15	18.76	22.455	144.36321639946	0.3706	0.8806	15.06	15.9406	T	T	-5.85	270.15	17	376.94542832447	54.417054439993	0.18850445161966	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.11	18.81	22.46	144.47092502371	0.3597	0.9097	15.06	15.9697	T	T	-5.89	270.11	17	377.0058687873	54.466386603068	0.1872698501741	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.31	18.95	22.63	146.74754170997	0.495	1.035	15.06	16.095	T	T	-5.69	270.31	17	378.27952652067	55.511590596119	0.19349275125371	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.63	19.03	23.83	146.40465385173	0.3757	1.0057	15.06	16.0657	T	T	-3.37	274.63	17	378.08816801015	55.35386736296	0.27443385323323	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.96	18.23	23.595	145.78572742344	0.3482	0.9582	15.06	16.0182	T	T	-3.04	271.96	17	377.74233597049	55.069441228089	0.28716749691924	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.37	19.36	22.865	146.98086745781	0.385	1.055	14.84	15.895	T	T	-5.63	266.37	17	378.40964546203	55.618977944411	0.19538388949758	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.46	19.24	23.85	145.91987184882	0.4438	1.0738	15.04	16.1138	T	T	-3.54	269.46	17	377.81733681763	55.131057370692	0.26798451660931	89	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.56	18.86	23.71	145.86990785085	0.3673	0.9873	15.04	16.0273	T	T	-3.44	273.56	17	377.78940467252	55.108105646607	0.27176900068321	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	28.33	19.95	24.14	146.76495681174	0.3032	0.9132	15.04	15.9532	T	T	-3.67	269.33	17	378.28924107657	55.519604128949	0.26310462881623	89	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.22	20.01	22.115	148.61591347564	0.4707	1.0007	15.2	16.2007	T	T	-7.78	272.22	17	379.31930239284	56.372884624054	0.13468512081728	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.68	19.25	21.965	148.78175312052	0.4263	0.9463	15.33	16.2763	T	T	-7.32	273.68	17	379.4113563404	56.449486750159	0.14644422626567	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.71	18.84	21.775	143.39723160406	0.3115	0.9015	15.09	15.9915	T	T	-7.29	270.71	17	376.40262824723	53.975094859146	0.14723429760855	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.04	17.54	21.29	143.51604464865	0.4017	1.0817	15.25	16.3317	T	T	-6.96	279.04	17	376.46946277573	54.029408228574	0.156112956457	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.36	18.3	22.33	144.05780715849	0.516	1.186	15.19	16.376	T	T	-5.64	279.36	17	376.77395864239	54.277230276447	0.19506792408711	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.1	17.84	21.47	145.84874772803	0.4862	1.2462	15.17	16.4162	T	T	-6.9	274.1	17	377.77757413383	55.098386107152	0.15776429547688	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.61	20.22	22.915	146.72954215431	0.6433	1.3633	15.13	16.4933	T	T	-6.39	267.61	17	378.26948549097	55.503308417038	0.17226081957951	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.64	20.23	22.935	147.06827175367	0.6433	1.4033	15.18	16.5833	T	T	-6.36	267.64	17	378.45836842912	55.659218175584	0.17313916842873	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.67	20.25	22.96	141.30611766023	0.6433	1.4233	13.81	15.2333	T	T	-6.33	257.67	17	375.22303068961	53.021309723454	0.17402035756549	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.79	18.05	21.42	139.30222336432	0.7343	1.5543	14.5	16.0543	T	T	-7.21	264.79	17	374.08673972798	52.111114575217	0.14935506170973	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	23.23	12.31	17.77	138.74388118207	0.7614	1.3414	14.49	15.8314	T	T	-8.77	262.23	17	373.76910501241	51.858176295372	0.11161546653098	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	23.24	12.33	17.785	143.10966958653	0.7614	1.3914	14.48	15.8714	T	T	-8.76	262.24	17	376.24078580196	53.843694541094	0.11183344115108	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	25.25	14.83	20.04	144.39107258179	1.1446	1.6646	15.01	16.6746	T	T	-6.75	262.25	17	376.96106134653	54.429811969396	0.16194252369054	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.06	12.78	19.42	146.11000745025	1.1351	1.5751	15.49	17.0651	T	T	-5.94	260.06	17	377.92359885204	55.218419843895	0.18573363151132	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-12 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.08	12.8	19.44	136.36100733393	1.1351	1.5751	14.61	16.1851	T	T	-5.92	256.08	17	372.40843930535	50.781989923334	0.18634718063222	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.55	16.64	22.095	140.28630353513	1.9699	2.3999	15.22	17.6199	T	T	-4.45	267.55	17	374.64547662401	52.557629051739	0.23480720455849	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.89	18.22	22.555	140.1136198055	1.9785	2.2485	15.28	17.5285	T	T	-5.11	264.89	17	374.54753198918	52.479210496221	0.21223847786838	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	26.91	18.24	22.575	142.84964390578	1.9785	2.2485	15.29	17.5385	T	T	-5.09	263.91	17	376.09433924216	53.724942435724	0.21290322991245	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	27.95	17.49	22.72	147.85504637969	1.3704	2.6604	15.55	18.2104	T	T	-4.05	263.95	17	378.89646434956	56.021754309503	0.24910497064433	89	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.58	17.57	21.075	150.74482091583	1.3279	2.5779	16.01	18.5879	T	T	-7.42	255.58	17	380.4980711752	57.358113598124	0.14383118403209	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-11 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	24.56	17.58	21.07	151.21821196126	1.3279	2.5779	14.9	17.4779	T	T	-7.44	253.56	17	380.75932103954	57.577743715181	0.14331236318645	89	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	20.24	13.95	17.095	142.61538502597	0.4346	1.1946	16.7	17.8946	T	T	-11.76	253.24	17	375.9623217078	53.618011265615	0.059260871446047	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	18.5	13.12	15.81	142.47472736603	0.2718	1.0218	16.75	17.7718	T	T	-13.5	246.5	17	375.88301576622	53.553830192813	0.039127261211424	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-01-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	16.77	13.12	14.945	146.72090882243	0.2319	0.9819	16.79	17.7719	T	T	-15.23	244.77	17	378.26466923463	55.499336045521	0.025005786934615	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	15.85	14.09	14.97	140.97374093976	0.0848	0.7348	16.92	17.6548	T	T	-16.15	248.85	17	375.03495920475	52.870081182285	0.019425982451512	89	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-01-10 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	109	-176	19.21	18.83	19.02	149.2672470789	0.056	1.106	17.32	18.426	T	T	-12.79	249.21	17	379.68062057189	56.673881001973	0.046545648869249	89	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L