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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 16, 2020

[ Wednesday, January 15, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, January 17, 2020 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.120
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 534

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-17 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020108-17724.2900614.6100219.45004137.035487083330.349999999999970.7999999999999714.8515.65TT-7.70994534.2900616371.93738735303 50.9686210404250.1202639296150488 1143129WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17715.4415.4415.44138.03141273380.00480.454814.8515.3048TT-16.56525.4416372.5082715630951.417842978880.010121601820973881142126WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17724.5820.0522.315138.254754208930.05420.504214.8515.3542TT-7.42534.5816372.6360971783551.5187120247660.12794502441373881143129WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17727.6418.7523.195138.648632468720.12860.578614.8515.4286TT-4.36537.6416372.8613499296751.6967162681890.22949196438668881143129WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020108-17723.4619.5821.52139.885968233820.28570.735714.8515.5857TT-8.54533.4616373.5674985553552.2568512361010.1000823759489881143129WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17728.8520.6924.77143.716077302520.33270.562714.8515.4127TT-3.15538.8516375.7393307050753.9997826972050.279560117966218821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020108-17729.0718.6323.85142.187231919650.23360.733614.8515.5836TT-2.93540.0716374.874944213153.3024306336950.289201274365588821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17729.4719.7224.595142.374841898910.270.7714.8515.62TT-2.53540.4716374.981196879153.3878886207250.30711964369888821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17728.9819.6424.31143.835242937790.2640.76414.8515.614TT-3.02539.9816375.8065642793254.0542284707330.285238324419188821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17729.2519.9424.595144.290323265180.26620.846214.8515.6962TT-2.75542.2516376.0631346631154.2622712686590.297203802698628821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020108-17728.8818.5423.71143.847045834550.25750.827514.8515.6775TT-3.12538.8816375.8132223980854.0596218275270.280865595805748821431210.5WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17728.9420.0224.48144.705596286350.33050.670514.8515.5205TT-3.06535.9416376.2970033776354.4522822545280.283485348465688821431210.5WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020108-17725.2519.9722.61143.378173174580.31290.832914.8515.6829TT-6.75537.2516375.5485735772653.8454684178270.14697426038423881143129WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17729.0919.6524.37143.467356153380.31840.818414.8515.6684TT-2.91541.0916375.5989359777553.886186318750.290085428742248821431210.5WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:10FORECAST2020108-17724.9319.7422.335144.811194188260.31160.811614.8515.6616TT-7.07536.9316376.3564334683654.5006245709870.13766155387304881143129WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17729.8121.4325.62145.429052583340.24040.890414.8515.7404TT-2.19543.8116376.7038424753454.783682915690.322723138332218821431210.5WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020108-17730.121.5925.845145.872922770370.26091.010914.8515.8609TT-1.9545.116376.9530851917654.9872482842290.336284486327328821441214WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17730.1620.2925.225141.202728609420.32191.141914.5515.6919TT-1.84542.1616374.3165413017652.854516995450.339117810072858821441214WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:10FORECAST2020108-17729.8120.0624.935140.774854318380.45281.212814.7315.9428TT-2.19549.8116374.0734185534552.6601310012410.322723138332218821441214WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020108-17729.6220.7225.17140.589260472210.45561.135614.7315.8656TT-2.38548.6216373.9678799557652.575867683340.313962781659188821441214WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17726.0518.722.375142.362394474890.4721.21214.7315.942TT-5.95545.0516374.9741488649353.3822176985960.172060859773748811441212WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17721.5717.1619.365142.14649198330.3831.15314.7115.863TT-10.43537.5716374.8518645114853.2838775537040.0635239131965258811441212WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020108-17721.5917.1919.39142.395938560040.38931.189314.7615.9493TT-10.41537.5916374.9931417788953.3975003771840.0638473430742198811441212WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17721.2117.2219.215136.539421749240.38571.175713.4214.5957TT-10.79528.2116371.6524936707650.7452165774680.057916940924168811441212WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020108-17718.8313.2716.05133.619148497380.43481.204814.1315.3348TT-13.17535.8316369.9680647387249.434817781610.0299693772461348811441212WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17715.4910.2912.89132.257818898080.28530.935314.1415.0753TT-16.51535.4916369.1785627194748.8267514892070.010298092256145881143129WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17715.4910.3212.905136.470132016740.28530.985314.1315.1153TT-16.51535.4916371.6126715284550.7140303425810.010298092256145881143129WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17715.279.812.535136.965565135310.17670.896714.6415.5367TT-16.73533.2716371.8972524341450.937117351910.0095411037333001881143129WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020108-17714.9210.3512.635138.608854406790.08750.757515.1815.9375TT-17.08529.9216372.8386117135551.6787328482330.0084368347686077881143129WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020108-17714.9310.3612.645128.644416750270.08750.947514.1115.0575TT-17.07525.9316367.069685006547.2214655343660.0084667587901592881143129WETL
2020-01-11 20:00:11FORECAST2020108-17718.849.8814.36126.301409923870.24470.754714.9115.6647TT-13.16535.8416365.6918632112246.1873979212650.030057749085675881143129WETL
2020-01-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17720.229.6814.95125.197309860780.20910.619114.9415.5591TT-11.78534.2216365.0397414419245.7019936208030.044484042174112881143129WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17720.229.714.96127.444086258040.20910.599114.9715.5691TT-11.78533.2216366.3648465121146.6910331008020.044484042174112881143129WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17721.8216.5219.17137.63845906750.92571.565715.2816.8457TT-10.18531.8216372.2831952518351.2404853311880.0676591323169198811451215WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020108-17720.815.5818.19139.45268267930.88241.482415.7917.2724TT-11.2526.816373.3204745677352.060541677580.0520117506447328811441212WETL
2020-01-11 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17720.815.5918.195139.309359783570.88241.482414.6816.1624TT-11.2524.816373.2387037194251.9956448616030.0520117506447328811441212WETL
2020-01-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020108-17716.411.7214.06136.376424759410.24041.210416.2617.4704TT-15.6529.416371.5588050152550.6718614158570.0140113150779428811441212WETL
2020-01-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17715.1811.6413.41138.280131932240.23491.214916.317.5149TT-16.82524.1816372.6506170902751.5301764958720.00924571725087668811441212WETL
2020-01-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17715.1611.6713.415142.885969514790.23491.234916.3217.5549TT-16.84524.1616375.2704165858853.6208773040920.00918117220766458811441212WETL
2020-01-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-17717.9710.7814.375139.589630105860.39540.855416.7217.5754TT-14.03528.9716373.3985801762552.1225696888570.023134579384964881143129WETL
2020-01-10 04:00:11FORECAST2020108-17720.0613.216.63148.436558234280.88881.448816.9318.3788TT-11.94526.0616378.3871365756656.1664842334160.0425691621318078811441212WETL
2020-01-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17720.0813.2116.645149.78642518770.88881.448816.4217.8688TT-11.92531.0816379.1384832096456.789798051060.0428048256744018811441212WETL
2020-01-09 20:00:10FORECAST2020108-17719.5110.2714.89152.937319282450.83491.334916.617.9349TT-12.49526.5116380.8823034719858.2511184551310.0364880782927838811441212WETL
2020-01-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020108-17720.5312.216.365150.010340429150.75021.260216.3617.6202TT-11.47535.5316379.2628672910356.8933518344610.0483906463933228811441212WETL
2020-01-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020108-17718.8112.215.505148.741597799770.56891.078916.0417.1189TT-13.19531.8116378.5571493796956.3071952572620.0297932781435688811441212WETL
2020-01-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020108-1775.914.785.345146.082384086180.41860.748615.5816.3286TT-26.09511.9116377.0706046989555.083372903240.00018496060871287881143129WETL
2020-01-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020108-1773.532.563.045137.932514255020.04990.369915.5615.9299TT-28.47499.5316372.4516455674551.3731919115375.4627831385767E-5881142126WETL