Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 15, 2020

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DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2020 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 7.54°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 15.13°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.119 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 550 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.23 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.76 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.35 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 138 in SWE DAY: 15 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.88 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 51.48 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 4 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-16 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2020	107	-178	22.73	7.53998	15.13499	138.42492	0.22999999999996	0.75999999999996	14.59	15.35	T	T	-9.27	549.73	15	371.87617926208	51.476930364259	0.11895309463923	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-16 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	108	-178	22.71	22.71	22.71	142.04428273648	0.0088	0.5388	14.59	15.1288	T	T	-9.29	549.71	15	373.94453528253	53.116683297433	0.11850070160318	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-15 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	24.15	18.59	21.37	142.4716787256	0.2823	0.8123	14.59	15.4023	T	T	-7.85	551.15	15	374.18752624	53.311125021592	0.15422003010457	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-15 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.43	14.12	20.275	142.89946962595	0.3592	0.8892	14.59	15.4792	T	T	-5.57	553.43	15	374.43047770976	53.505916676517	0.22394069571849	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-15 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	23.5	16.08	19.79	142.43276039484	0.3468	0.8768	14.59	15.4668	T	T	-8.5	550.5	15	374.16541059616	53.293412275481	0.13730134734544	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-15 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	23.08	13.24	18.16	142.90397634233	0.3391	0.6491	14.59	15.2391	T	T	-8.92	547.08	15	374.43303576406	53.507969684615	0.1270673318406	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.57	14.18	20.375	141.64763364679	0.3188	0.8288	14.59	15.4188	T	T	-5.43	551.57	15	373.71878898593	52.936382109201	0.22873525621072	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.62	12.33	19.475	141.62821036676	0.3019	0.8119	14.59	15.4019	T	T	-5.38	551.62	15	373.70772870363	52.927556816522	0.23046144106081	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.52	13.87	20.195	143.00391587591	0.2967	0.8067	14.59	15.3967	T	T	-5.48	551.52	15	374.48975485259	53.553501399329	0.22701634183127	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.68	15.71	21.195	144.11190892942	0.2923	0.9623	14.59	15.5523	T	T	-5.32	553.68	15	375.1176149234	54.058915559663	0.23254242440409	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.54	14.69	20.615	144.40445172221	0.2638	1.0638	14.59	15.6538	T	T	-5.46	554.54	15	375.28309382355	54.192549404205	0.22770303353876	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-14 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	26.1	12.92	19.51	139.4007902203	0.268	0.828	14.59	15.418	T	T	-5.9	552.1	15	372.43573307565	51.917835497023	0.21286772195772	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-13 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	25.59	14.32	19.955	138.0059587976	0.2285	0.9485	14.59	15.5385	T	T	-6.41	559.59	15	371.63552539977	51.287917006045	0.19639744189777	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-13 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	25.46	12.09	18.775	137.69156296449	0.2142	0.8742	14.59	15.4642	T	T	-6.54	559.46	15	371.45476625107	51.146187335718	0.19232576456394	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	24	14.23	19.115	139.19801989027	0.2929	0.9329	14.59	15.5229	T	T	-8	559	15	372.31958080878	51.826148414956	0.15019867074929	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	21.27	13.71	17.49	139.38338359318	0.3403	0.9403	14.59	15.5303	T	T	-10.73	556.27	15	372.42576444132	51.909963185106	0.089050044812243	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	21.01	13.73	17.37	139.54489054893	0.3678	1.0178	14.59	15.6078	T	T	-10.99	556.01	15	372.51824124151	51.983017201526	0.084368751711275	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	24.64	12.62	18.63	133.60471006774	0.3948	1.0848	13.18	14.2648	T	T	-7.36	546.64	15	369.09188456365	49.312414225483	0.16784696710505	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	23.22	11.32	17.27	129.89260967269	0.3864	1.0864	13.86	14.9464	T	T	-8.78	557.22	15	366.92431079551	47.66075628158	0.13041815781893	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	23.18	10.52	16.85	129.4265993034	0.2946	0.9846	13.86	14.8446	T	T	-8.82	560.18	15	366.65075077735	47.45435980515	0.12945462114814	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	21.97	12.09	17.03	133.58748627923	0.3422	1.0222	13.86	14.8822	T	T	-10.03	559.97	15	369.08187435051	49.304719825712	0.10260679208678	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	19.61	10.62	15.115	135.15098592679	0.3403	1.0603	14.35	15.4103	T	T	-12.39	557.61	15	369.98877530503	50.004347764321	0.062273427558972	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	16.38	8.72	12.55	137.67901600022	0.3495	1.0095	14.89	15.8995	T	T	-15.62	555.38	15	371.44754948742	51.140533109121	0.028395556347155	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-12 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	16.31	8.75	12.53	127.69588921853	0.3485	1.1785	13.84	15.0185	T	T	-15.69	551.31	15	365.63194053561	46.689695773392	0.027879216725257	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	15.53	0.95	8.24	123.90914692962	0.1929	1.0329	14.44	15.4729	T	T	-16.47	556.53	15	363.38713241493	45.026989582734	0.022635569971636	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	12.12	2.01	7.065	123.19683268347	0.0574	0.9674	14.43	15.3974	T	T	-19.88	554.12	15	362.96244933038	44.71582414054	0.0083667790833813	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	12.15	2.05	7.1	125.39537471136	0.0574	0.9674	14.44	15.4074	T	T	-19.85	553.15	15	364.27075395073	45.677867688041	0.0084454542639534	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	16.88	2.38	9.63	129.2732738317	0.3599	1.1199	14.85	15.9699	T	T	-15.12	549.88	15	366.56067398188	47.386498383594	0.032318945071316	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	15.36	2.7	9.03	130.92119290126	0.3673	0.9673	15.47	16.4373	T	T	-16.64	546.36	15	367.52697060689	48.11706941524	0.02161018171044	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-11 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	15.38	2.71	9.045	130.54785821224	0.3673	0.9573	14.37	15.3273	T	T	-16.62	544.38	15	367.30841113861	47.951326377485	0.021728745974199	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	13.82	7.24	10.53	133.39025128129	0.5241	1.3741	15.91	17.2841	T	T	-18.18	552.82	15	368.96721303751	49.216629261631	0.013980850136713	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	14.03	7.1	10.565	135.30512048335	0.5181	1.3981	15.93	17.3281	T	T	-17.97	549.03	15	370.07798548963	50.073446414909	0.014860756319835	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	14.05	7.13	10.59	139.81572655281	0.5181	1.4981	15.87	17.3681	T	T	-17.95	549.05	15	372.67323332108	52.105578883572	0.014946984035075	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	11.81	2.72	7.265	134.16168408892	0.2529	1.0429	16.19	17.2329	T	T	-20.19	550.81	15	369.41535374888	49.561385987253	0.0075907096245307	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	13.04	2.21	7.625	137.29554867403	0.1597	1.0597	16.48	17.5397	T	T	-18.96	546.04	15	371.2268757621	50.967797590305	0.011093916625129	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	13.06	2.24	7.65	138.08251391027	0.1597	1.0597	15.97	17.0297	T	T	-18.94	551.06	15	371.67951824639	51.322442248422	0.011160914910876	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	11.01	4.89	7.95	140.63348205549	0.1481	1.1281	16.02	17.1481	T	T	-20.99	547.01	15	373.14056609146	52.476057105598	0.0058731745242904	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	11.81	4.85	8.33	139.29879776269	0.1314	1.1114	15.81	16.9214	T	T	-20.19	554.81	15	372.37731654635	51.871712509003	0.0075907096245307	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	11.81	4.86	8.335	139.51119111593	0.1314	1.1114	15.49	16.6014	T	T	-20.19	552.81	15	372.49894851263	51.967771996427	0.0075907096245307	89	1	1	4	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-01-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	10.65	3	6.825	136.11062467617	0.055	0.985	14.97	15.955	T	T	-21.35	545.65	15	370.54362841227	50.434924732968	0.0052197622040343	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	10.3	1.33	5.815	136.53691216351	0.016	0.876	15.05	15.926	T	T	-21.7	536.3	15	370.78966989303	50.626476589322	0.0046473269903419	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-09 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	10.33	1.36	5.845	136.24522194033	0.016	0.876	14.94	15.816	T	T	-21.67	528.33	15	370.62134305292	50.49538714007	0.0046941001503408	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-08 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	8.95	1.53	5.24	139.05168203024	0.049	0.939	15.69	16.629	T	T	-23.05	530.95	15	372.23571739606	51.760002615655	0.0029283788832924	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	13.5	0.4	6.95	138.29032280963	0.0268	0.7768	16.06	16.8368	T	T	-18.5	534.5	15	371.79889373685	51.416189035134	0.012726357083389	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-08 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	13.51	0.43	6.97	139.52778796147	0.0149	0.7649	16.13	16.8949	T	T	-18.49	536.51	15	372.5084503163	51.97528006959	0.012764036202698	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	4.16	-1.94	1.11	144.15731120892	0	0.53	16.23	16.76	T	T	-27.84	530.16	15	375.14330510547	54.079650182031	0.00047647564928593	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-01-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	107	-178	2.76	-0.75	1.005	147.33217292465	0	0.64	16.39	17.03	T	T	-29.24	527.76	15	376.93242467116	55.534273172558	0.00026600551986677	89	1	1	4	3	1	2	9	WET	L