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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 15, 2020

[ Tuesday, January 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 16, 2020 ]

DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2020 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 7.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 15.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.119
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 550

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.76 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.48 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-16 04:00:13OBSERVATION2020107-17822.737.5399815.13499138.424920.229999999999960.7599999999999614.5915.35TT-9.27549.7315371.87617926208 51.4769303642590.1189530946392389 1143129WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020108-17822.7122.7122.71142.044282736480.00880.538814.5915.1288TT-9.29549.7115373.9445352825353.1166832974330.11850070160318891143129WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17824.1518.5921.37142.47167872560.28230.812314.5915.4023TT-7.85551.1515374.1875262453.3111250215920.15422003010457891143129WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17826.4314.1220.275142.899469625950.35920.889214.5915.4792TT-5.57553.4315374.4304777097653.5059166765170.22394069571849891143129WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-17823.516.0819.79142.432760394840.34680.876814.5915.4668TT-8.5550.515374.1654105961653.2934122754810.13730134734544891143129WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17823.0813.2418.16142.903976342330.33910.649114.5915.2391TT-8.92547.0815374.4330357640653.5079696846150.1270673318406891143129WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020107-17826.5714.1820.375141.647633646790.31880.828814.5915.4188TT-5.43551.5715373.7187889859352.9363821092010.22873525621072891143129WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:10FORECAST2020107-17826.6212.3319.475141.628210366760.30190.811914.5915.4019TT-5.38551.6215373.7077287036352.9275568165220.23046144106081891143129WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:10FORECAST2020107-17826.5213.8720.195143.003915875910.29670.806714.5915.3967TT-5.48551.5215374.4897548525953.5535013993290.22701634183127891143129WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17826.6815.7121.195144.111908929420.29230.962314.5915.5523TT-5.32553.6815375.117614923454.0589155596630.23254242440409891143129WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020107-17826.5414.6920.615144.404451722210.26381.063814.5915.6538TT-5.46554.5415375.2830938235554.1925494042050.227703033538768911441212WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17826.112.9219.51139.40079022030.2680.82814.5915.418TT-5.9552.115372.4357330756551.9178354970230.21286772195772891143129WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:10FORECAST2020107-17825.5914.3219.955138.00595879760.22850.948514.5915.5385TT-6.41559.5915371.6355253997751.2879170060450.19639744189777891143129WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020107-17825.4612.0918.775137.691562964490.21420.874214.5915.4642TT-6.54559.4615371.4547662510751.1461873357180.19232576456394891143129WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-1782414.2319.115139.198019890270.29290.932914.5915.5229TT-855915372.3195808087851.8261484149560.15019867074929891143129WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17821.2713.7117.49139.383383593180.34030.940314.5915.5303TT-10.73556.2715372.4257644413251.9099631851060.089050044812243891143129WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-17821.0113.7317.37139.544890548930.36781.017814.5915.6078TT-10.99556.0115372.5182412415151.9830172015260.0843687517112758911441212WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17824.6412.6218.63133.604710067740.39481.084813.1814.2648TT-7.36546.6415369.0918845636549.3124142254830.167846967105058911441212WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020107-17823.2211.3217.27129.892609672690.38641.086413.8614.9464TT-8.78557.2215366.9243107955147.660756281580.130418157818938911441212WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020107-17823.1810.5216.85129.42659930340.29460.984613.8614.8446TT-8.82560.1815366.6507507773547.454359805150.12945462114814891143129WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17821.9712.0917.03133.587486279230.34221.022213.8614.8822TT-10.03559.9715369.0818743505149.3047198257120.102606792086788911441212WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17819.6110.6215.115135.150985926790.34031.060314.3515.4103TT-12.39557.6115369.9887753050350.0043477643210.0622734275589728911441212WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-17816.388.7212.55137.679016000220.34951.009514.8915.8995TT-15.62555.3815371.4475494874251.1405331091210.0283955563471558911441212WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020107-17816.318.7512.53127.695889218530.34851.178513.8415.0185TT-15.69551.3115365.6319405356146.6896957733920.0278792167252578911441212WETL
2020-01-11 20:00:11FORECAST2020107-17815.530.958.24123.909146929620.19291.032914.4415.4729TT-16.47556.5315363.3871324149345.0269895827340.0226355699716368911441212WETL
2020-01-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020107-17812.122.017.065123.196832683470.05740.967414.4315.3974TT-19.88554.1215362.9624493303844.715824140540.0083667790833813891143129WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17812.152.057.1125.395374711360.05740.967414.4415.4074TT-19.85553.1515364.2707539507345.6778676880410.0084454542639534891143129WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17816.882.389.63129.27327383170.35991.119914.8515.9699TT-15.12549.8815366.5606739818847.3864983835940.0323189450713168911441212WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-17815.362.79.03130.921192901260.36730.967315.4716.4373TT-16.64546.3615367.5269706068948.117069415240.02161018171044891143129WETL
2020-01-11 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17815.382.719.045130.547858212240.36730.957314.3715.3273TT-16.62544.3815367.3084111386147.9513263774850.021728745974199891143129WETL
2020-01-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020107-17813.827.2410.53133.390251281290.52411.374115.9117.2841TT-18.18552.8215368.9672130375149.2166292616310.0139808501367138911441212WETL
2020-01-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020107-17814.037.110.565135.305120483350.51811.398115.9317.3281TT-17.97549.0315370.0779854896350.0734464149090.0148607563198358911441212WETL
2020-01-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17814.057.1310.59139.815726552810.51811.498115.8717.3681TT-17.95549.0515372.6732333210852.1055788835720.0149469840350758911441212WETL
2020-01-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17811.812.727.265134.161684088920.25291.042916.1917.2329TT-20.19550.8115369.4153537488849.5613859872530.00759070962453078911441212WETL
2020-01-10 04:00:11FORECAST2020107-17813.042.217.625137.295548674030.15971.059716.4817.5397TT-18.96546.0415371.226875762150.9677975903050.0110939166251298911441212WETL
2020-01-10 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17813.062.247.65138.082513910270.15971.059715.9717.0297TT-18.94551.0615371.6795182463951.3224422484220.0111609149108768911441212WETL
2020-01-09 20:00:10FORECAST2020107-17811.014.897.95140.633482055490.14811.128116.0217.1481TT-20.99547.0115373.1405660914652.4760571055980.00587317452429048911441212WETL
2020-01-09 16:00:11FORECAST2020107-17811.814.858.33139.298797762690.13141.111415.8116.9214TT-20.19554.8115372.3773165463551.8717125090030.00759070962453078911441212WETL
2020-01-09 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17811.814.868.335139.511191115930.13141.111415.4916.6014TT-20.19552.8115372.4989485126351.9677719964270.00759070962453078911441212WETL
2020-01-09 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-17810.6536.825136.110624676170.0550.98514.9715.955TT-21.35545.6515370.5436284122750.4349247329680.0052197622040343891143129WETL
2020-01-09 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-17810.31.335.815136.536912163510.0160.87615.0515.926TT-21.7536.315370.7896698930350.6264765893220.0046473269903419891143129WETL
2020-01-09 00:00:12FORECAST2020107-17810.331.365.845136.245221940330.0160.87614.9415.816TT-21.67528.3315370.6213430529250.495387140070.0046941001503408891143129WETL
2020-01-08 20:00:11FORECAST2020107-1788.951.535.24139.051682030240.0490.93915.6916.629TT-23.05530.9515372.2357173960651.7600026156550.0029283788832924891143129WETL
2020-01-08 16:00:11FORECAST2020107-17813.50.46.95138.290322809630.02680.776816.0616.8368TT-18.5534.515371.7988937368551.4161890351340.012726357083389891143129WETL
2020-01-08 12:00:11FORECAST2020107-17813.510.436.97139.527787961470.01490.764916.1316.8949TT-18.49536.5115372.508450316351.975280069590.012764036202698891143129WETL
2020-01-08 08:00:11FORECAST2020107-1784.16-1.941.11144.1573112089200.5316.2316.76TT-27.84530.1615375.1433051054754.0796501820310.00047647564928593891143129WETL
2020-01-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020107-1782.76-0.751.005147.3321729246500.6416.3917.03TT-29.24527.7615376.9324246711655.5342731725580.00026600551986677891143129WETL