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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 17, 2020

[ Thursday, January 16, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 18, 2020 ]

DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2020 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.116
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 261

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 370.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-18 04:00:11OBSERVATION2020109-17623.4513.8900218.67001133.782540833330.119999999999950.6999999999999515.0615.76TT-8.55261.4517370.92677969522 49.6235270507530.1164811759772989 1123126WETL
2020-01-18 00:00:12FORECAST2020110-17622.4822.4822.48137.061726376470.01220.592215.0615.6522TT-9.52260.4817372.809418188651.0979024663380.096121094053255891123126WETL
2020-01-17 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17627.4821.0824.28137.444848883080.16560.745615.0615.8056TT-4.52265.4817373.0283543050651.2708257865630.23235250059179891123126WETL
2020-01-17 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17627.9917.3922.69137.666684659450.2320.81215.0615.872TT-4.01265.9917373.1550254377851.3710152160320.25055975184408892123127.5WETL
2020-01-17 04:00:11FORECAST2020109-17627.9214.921.41138.163002972630.32820.908215.0615.9682TT-4.08265.9217373.4381713450951.5953391776430.24801683618211891123126WETL
2020-01-17 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17627.8815.8421.86139.194495167530.34720.577215.0615.6372TT-4.12256.8817374.0254894110952.0622891783670.24656993858973891123126WETL
2020-01-16 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.1716.9121.54139.493136812910.38950.669515.0615.7295TT-5.83265.1717374.1952449795252.1976685026690.18912362594346891123126WETL
2020-01-16 16:00:10FORECAST2020109-17628.4918.1923.34139.200500369690.38430.664315.0615.7243TT-3.51267.4917374.0289041907552.0650106160790.26911707359675892123127.5WETL
2020-01-16 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17628.1619.4123.785139.81871853410.44470.724715.0615.7847TT-3.84267.1617374.3801673207852.3453552393740.25679237243043892123127.5WETL
2020-01-16 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17628.5219.0623.79140.675672005910.40550.765515.0615.8255TT-3.48270.5217374.8661652877352.734549714130.2702520241992892123127.5WETL
2020-01-16 04:00:13FORECAST2020109-17628.6218.2823.45142.130196824230.43310.953115.0616.0131TT-3.38265.6217375.688641984753.3967006299110.27405237274458892123127.5WETL
2020-01-16 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17628.5118.9623.735147.039074443080.62340.963415.0616.0234TT-3.49271.5117378.4420937777555.6457751993810.26987344188642892123127.5WETL
2020-01-15 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.1518.7622.455144.363216399460.37060.880615.0615.9406TT-5.85270.1517376.9454283244754.4170544399930.18850445161966891123126WETL
2020-01-15 16:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.1118.8122.46144.470925023710.35970.909715.0615.9697TT-5.89270.1117377.005868787354.4663866030680.1872698501741891123126WETL
2020-01-15 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.3118.9522.63146.747541709970.4951.03515.0616.095TT-5.69270.3117378.2795265206755.5115905961190.19349275125371891124128WETL
2020-01-15 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17628.6319.0323.83146.404653851730.37571.005715.0616.0657TT-3.37274.6317378.0881680101555.353867362960.274433853233238921241210WETL
2020-01-15 04:00:12FORECAST2020109-17628.9618.2323.595145.785727423440.34820.958215.0616.0182TT-3.04271.9617377.7423359704955.0694412280890.28716749691924892123127.5WETL
2020-01-15 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17626.3719.3622.865146.980867457810.3851.05514.8415.895TT-5.63266.3717378.4096454620355.6189779444110.19538388949758891124128WETL
2020-01-14 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17628.4619.2423.85145.919871848820.44381.073815.0416.1138TT-3.54269.4617377.8173368176355.1310573706920.267984516609318921241210WETL
2020-01-14 16:00:11FORECAST2020109-17628.5618.8623.71145.869907850850.36730.987315.0416.0273TT-3.44273.5617377.7894046725255.1081056466070.27176900068321892123127.5WETL
2020-01-14 12:00:10FORECAST2020109-17628.3319.9524.14146.764956811740.30320.913215.0415.9532TT-3.67269.3317378.2892410765755.5196041289490.26310462881623892123127.5WETL
2020-01-14 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17624.2220.0122.115148.615913475640.47071.000715.216.2007TT-7.78272.2217379.3193023928456.3728846240540.13468512081728891124128WETL
2020-01-14 04:00:11FORECAST2020109-17624.6819.2521.965148.781753120520.42630.946315.3316.2763TT-7.32273.6817379.411356340456.4494867501590.14644422626567891123126WETL
2020-01-14 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17624.7118.8421.775143.397231604060.31150.901515.0915.9915TT-7.29270.7117376.4026282472353.9750948591460.14723429760855891123126WETL
2020-01-13 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17625.0417.5421.29143.516044648650.40171.081715.2516.3317TT-6.96279.0417376.4694627757354.0294082285740.156112956457891124128WETL
2020-01-13 16:00:10FORECAST2020109-17626.3618.322.33144.057807158490.5161.18615.1916.376TT-5.64279.3617376.7739586423954.2772302764470.19506792408711891124128WETL
2020-01-13 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17625.117.8421.47145.848747728030.48621.246215.1716.4162TT-6.9274.117377.7775741338355.0983861071520.15776429547688891124128WETL
2020-01-13 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17625.6120.2222.915146.729542154310.64331.363315.1316.4933TT-6.39267.6117378.2694854909755.5033084170380.17226081957951891124128WETL
2020-01-13 04:00:12FORECAST2020109-17625.6420.2322.935147.068271753670.64331.403315.1816.5833TT-6.36267.6417378.4583684291255.6592181755840.17313916842873891124128WETL
2020-01-13 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17625.6720.2522.96141.306117660230.64331.423313.8115.2333TT-6.33257.6717375.2230306896153.0213097234540.17402035756549891124128WETL
2020-01-12 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17624.7918.0521.42139.302223364320.73431.554314.516.0543TT-7.21264.7917374.0867397279852.1111145752170.149355061709738911251210WETL
2020-01-12 16:00:11FORECAST2020109-17623.2312.3117.77138.743881182070.76141.341414.4915.8314TT-8.77262.2317373.7691050124151.8581762953720.11161546653098891124128WETL
2020-01-12 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17623.2412.3317.785143.109669586530.76141.391414.4815.8714TT-8.76262.2417376.2407858019653.8436945410940.11183344115108891124128WETL
2020-01-12 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17625.2514.8320.04144.391072581791.14461.664615.0116.6746TT-6.75262.2517376.9610613465354.4298119693960.161942523690548911251210WETL
2020-01-12 04:00:12FORECAST2020109-17626.0612.7819.42146.110007450251.13511.575115.4917.0651TT-5.94260.0617377.9235988520455.2184198438950.185733631511328911251210WETL
2020-01-12 00:00:17FORECAST2020109-17626.0812.819.44136.361007333931.13511.575114.6116.1851TT-5.92256.0817372.4084393053550.7819899233340.186347180632228911251210WETL
2020-01-11 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17627.5516.6422.095140.286303535131.96992.399915.2217.6199TT-4.45267.5517374.6454766240152.5576290517390.234807204558498911251210WETL
2020-01-11 16:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.8918.2222.555140.11361980551.97852.248515.2817.5285TT-5.11264.8917374.5475319891852.4792104962210.212238477868388911251210WETL
2020-01-11 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17626.9118.2422.575142.849643905781.97852.248515.2917.5385TT-5.09263.9117376.0943392421653.7249424357240.212903229912458911251210WETL
2020-01-11 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17627.9517.4922.72147.855046379691.37042.660415.5518.2104TT-4.05263.9517378.8964643495656.0217543095030.249104970644338921251212.5WETL
2020-01-11 04:00:12FORECAST2020109-17624.5817.5721.075150.744820915831.32792.577916.0118.5879TT-7.42255.5817380.498071175257.3581135981240.143831184032098911251210WETL
2020-01-11 00:00:12FORECAST2020109-17624.5617.5821.07151.218211961261.32792.577914.917.4779TT-7.44253.5617380.7593210395457.5777437151810.143312363186458911251210WETL
2020-01-10 20:00:11FORECAST2020109-17620.2413.9517.095142.615385025970.43461.194616.717.8946TT-11.76253.2417375.962321707853.6180112656150.059260871446047891124128WETL
2020-01-10 16:00:11FORECAST2020109-17618.513.1215.81142.474727366030.27181.021816.7517.7718TT-13.5246.517375.8830157662253.5538301928130.039127261211424891124128WETL
2020-01-10 12:00:11FORECAST2020109-17616.7713.1214.945146.720908822430.23190.981916.7917.7719TT-15.23244.7717378.2646692346355.4993360455210.025005786934615891123126WETL
2020-01-10 08:00:11FORECAST2020109-17615.8514.0914.97140.973740939760.08480.734816.9217.6548TT-16.15248.8517375.0349592047552.8700811822850.019425982451512891123126WETL
2020-01-10 04:00:12FORECAST2020109-17619.2118.8319.02149.26724707890.0561.10617.3218.426TT-12.79249.2117379.6806205718956.6738810019730.046545648869249891124128WETL