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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 18, 2020

[ Thursday, September 17, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 19, 2020 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.521
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 591

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 82.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203546856.0746.0451.05500.60810.618100.6181FF24.07591.07262472.2324796474600.520996991900929234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 23:59:17FORECAST20203546854.9545.3950.1700.390.400.4FF22.95591.95261471.7540346002500.480873551700269224425250DRYMH
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203546855.4145.850.60500.42850.438500.4385FF23.41592.41261471.7540346002500.497352505287229224425250DRYMH
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203546855.6945.3950.5400.73760.747600.7476FF23.69592.69261471.7540346002500.507387182775659234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203546856.0245.750.8600.5020.51200.512FF24.02593.02261471.7540346002500.519207283260749234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203546855.9845.5850.7800.29530.315300.3153FF23.98592.98261471.7540346002500.517775235810859234425255DRYH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203546856.4244.6650.5400.55530.585300.5853FF24.42588.42261471.7540346002500.533511087921229234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203546854.246.8350.51500.38270.412700.4127FF22.2576.2261471.7540346002500.454088250779719224425250DRYMH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203546853.6746.7250.19500.41330.473300.4733FF21.67595.67261471.7540346002500.435277938425039224425250DRYMH
2020-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20203546854.3546.4750.4100.64830.698300.6983FF22.35596.35261471.7540346002500.45943255892879224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203546854.4746.3850.42500.61630.686300.6863FF22.47594.47261471.7540346002500.46371333681669224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203546854.1946.1850.18500.56630.626300.6263FF22.19591.19261471.7540346002500.453732248077969224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203546853.7146.5150.1100.66810.718100.7181FF21.71589.71261471.7540346002500.436693031412669224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203546854.0346.0350.0300.69090.730900.7309FF22.03583.03261471.7540346002500.448041452594729224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203546853.7545.6649.70500.67140.72140.030.7514FF21.75597.75261471.7540346002500.438108934909449224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203546853.5446.1549.84500.75850.81850.030.8485FF21.54597.54261471.7540346002500.430684698623599224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203546852.7547.0349.8900.4070.5770.030.607FF20.75594.75261471.7540346002500.402994984290059224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203546852.5947.6850.13500.50950.67950.050.7295FF20.59589.59261471.7540346002500.397440977378429224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203546852.1546.4649.30500.43920.72920.060.7892FF20.15591.15261471.7540346002500.382277429209089224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203546856.6446.1651.400.40010.68010.090.7701FF24.64588.64261471.7540346002500.54136095448789234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203546850.3746.3648.36500.36590.56590.080.6459FF18.37596.37261471.7540346002500.322967092415769224435275DRYVH
2020-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203546855.2846.0750.67500.33560.50560.060.5656FF23.28601.28261471.7540346002500.492693731881189224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 11:59:27FORECAST20203546849.8646.9548.40500.24360.55360.160.7136FF17.86593.86261471.7540346002500.306696252790319224435275DRYVH
2020-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20203546849.0245.8847.4500.24360.56360.140.7036FF17.02589.02261471.7540346002500.280719409041719224435275DRYVH
2020-09-14 03:59:29FORECAST20203546856.5546.2451.39500.27460.61460.160.7746FF24.55596.55261471.7540346002500.538151418832059234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 00:05:08FORECAST20203546850.0746.3748.2200.68370.81370.221.0337FF18.07592.07261471.7540346002500.313352407528999224435275DRYVH
2020-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20203546850.0846.3748.22500.68370.83370.241.0737FF18.08609.08261471.7540346002500.313670910812399224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20203546851.0546.9348.9900.65790.84790.241.0879FF19.05607.05261471.7540346002500.345194651144449224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20203546857.7148.1652.93500.22180.39180.260.6518FF25.71608.71261471.7540346002500.579255190556429234525260DRYH
2020-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20203546857.7248.1752.94500.22180.40180.250.6518FF25.72607.72261471.7540346002500.579606460679289234525260DRYH
2020-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203546856.6248.0252.3200.3010.4410.280.721FF24.62607.62261471.7540346002500.540647949852139234525260DRYH
2020-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20203546853.8546.9650.40500.2920.3720.320.692FF21.85603.85261471.7540346002500.441652122579449224525255DRYH
2020-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20203546853.8646.9650.4100.2920.3720.641.012FF21.86622.86261471.7540346002500.442006703082779224525255DRYH
2020-09-12 15:59:34FORECAST20203546854.3647.6150.98500.34220.56220.661.2222FF22.36623.36261471.7540346002500.459789117766949224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20203546851.0947.1549.1200.82221.08220.351.4322FF19.09608.09261471.7540346002500.3465198799837492245452110DRYVH
2020-09-12 07:50:39FORECAST20203546851.147.1649.1300.82221.08220.211.2922FF19.1603.1261471.7540346002500.3468514815223792245452110DRYVH
2020-09-12 04:05:07FORECAST20203546853.948.3351.11500.53530.80530.431.2353FF21.9618.9261471.7540346002500.443425486990239224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20203546861.950.9456.4200.09730.15730.190.3473FF29.9624.9261471.7540346002500.717833082202239244525265DRYH
2020-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20203546864.5251.4157.96500.07750.23750.310.5475FF32.52641.52261471.7540346002500.791557641124199244525265DRYH
2020-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20203546858.450.7454.5700.08720.21720.170.3872FF26.4635.4261471.7540346002500.603330039964789234525260DRYH
2020-09-11 12:00:03FORECAST20203546855.0147.151.05500.04660.52660.40.9266FF23.01621.01261471.7540346002500.483021729815189224535282.5DRYVH
2020-09-11 07:50:44FORECAST20203546845.2443.8344.53500.02680.83680.271.1068FF13.24601.24261471.7540346002500.178685372560579214535275DRYVH
2020-09-11 03:59:39FORECAST20203546845.2544.9345.0900.00710.81710.261.0771FF13.25601.25261471.7540346002500.178920248801469214535275DRYVH