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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 17, 2020

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DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 68.75°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 49.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 59.12°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.888 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 37 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 581 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 260 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 5 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 65.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	353	67	68.75006	49.47998	59.11502	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	0.19	0.19999999999999	F	F	36.75006	580.75006	260	471.27376800312	0.88832742353406	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.75	55.68	63.215	0.0105	0.0105	0.19	0.2005	F	F	38.75	582.75	261	471.75403460025	0.91856448947382	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.73	53.46	62.095	0.0185	0.0185	0.19	0.2085	F	F	38.73	582.73	261	471.75403460025	0.91829614205553	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	65.76	49.53	57.645	0.0325	0.0325	0.19	0.2225	F	F	33.76	577.76	261	471.75403460025	0.82947061642118	91	4	4	4	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.23	50.91	61.07	0.0346	0.0346	0.19	0.2246	F	F	39.23	568.23	260	471.27376800312	0.92480777038242	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.57	50.6	61.085	0.0416	0.0616	0.19	0.2516	F	F	39.57	587.57	260	471.27376800312	0.92900519703687	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.9	52.12	62.01	0.0255	0.0455	0.19	0.2355	F	F	39.9	587.9	260	471.27376800312	0.93290532583824	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.2	53.35	61.775	0.0489	0.0689	0.19	0.2589	F	F	38.2	586.2	260	471.27376800312	0.91094066907907	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.33	52.76	61.545	0.039	0.059	0.19	0.249	F	F	38.33	583.33	260	471.27376800312	0.91278876236034	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.43	52.51	61.47	0.0384	0.0484	0.19	0.2384	F	F	38.43	582.43	260	471.27376800312	0.91419083800429	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.34	52.61	61.475	0.0323	0.0423	0.19	0.2323	F	F	38.34	575.34	260	471.27376800312	0.91292973237763	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	70.15	53.16	61.655	0.0394	0.0794	0.19	0.2694	F	F	38.15	590.15	260	471.27376800312	0.91022218145107	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	69.95	52.8	61.375	0.0489	0.0889	0.19	0.2789	F	F	37.95	589.95	260	471.27376800312	0.90730526562199	91	5	4	4	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.29	53.49	60.89	0.1646	0.2046	0.19	0.3946	F	F	36.29	588.29	260	471.27376800312	0.88036215650777	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	67.92	53.27	60.595	0.156	0.216	0.19	0.406	F	F	35.92	582.92	260	471.27376800312	0.87367252020177	91	5	4	4	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	353	67	66.94	52.86	59.9	0.28	0.35	0.19	0.54	F	F	34.94	584.94	260	471.27376800312	0.85471420208657	91	5	4	4	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.96	51.9	58.43	0.2734	0.3734	0.19	0.5634	F	F	32.96	577.96	260	471.27376800312	0.81085305542983	91	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	67.17	51.71	59.44	0.1916	0.2716	0.2	0.4716	F	F	35.17	592.17	260	471.27376800312	0.85932639414082	91	5	4	4	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	65.57	52.25	58.91	0.1586	0.2186	0.2	0.4186	F	F	33.57	591.57	260	471.27376800312	0.82515852960556	91	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	353	67	66.02	50.14	58.08	0.3023	0.4623	0.2	0.6623	F	F	34.02	590.02	260	471.27376800312	0.83526027669866	91	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.21	49.17	56.69	0.3127	0.4527	0.2	0.6527	F	F	32.21	586.21	260	471.27376800312	0.79230970538961	91	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	353	67	67.52	50.41	58.965	0.3188	0.4788	0.21	0.6888	F	F	35.52	585.52	260	471.27376800312	0.8661529631453	91	5	4	4	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.71	51.12	59.915	0.1132	0.3332	0.21	0.5432	F	F	36.71	587.71	260	471.27376800312	0.88764925756201	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.71	51.12	59.915	0.1136	0.3736	0.21	0.5836	F	F	36.71	604.71	260	471.27376800312	0.88764925756201	91	5	4	5	2	5	1	140	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.26	51.6	59.93	0.1083	0.4083	0.21	0.6183	F	F	36.26	602.26	260	471.27376800312	0.8798292175678	91	5	4	5	2	5	1	140	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.5	53.43	60.965	0.1117	0.3417	0.28	0.6217	F	F	36.5	596.5	260	471.27376800312	0.884046217938	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.5	53.41	60.955	0.1117	0.3617	0.26	0.6217	F	F	36.5	595.5	260	471.27376800312	0.884046217938	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	69.9	53.83	61.865	0.1169	0.3569	0.25	0.6069	F	F	37.9	596.9	260	471.27376800312	0.90656524025307	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.91	54.4	63.155	0.0709	0.2909	0.3	0.5909	F	F	39.91	595.91	260	471.27376800312	0.93302088046502	91	5	4	4	2	5	1	130	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.91	54.41	63.16	0.0709	0.5509	0.36	0.9109	F	F	39.91	614.91	260	471.27376800312	0.93302088046502	91	5	4	5	3	5	1	210	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	353	67	71.66	53.82	62.74	0.2035	0.7235	0.35	1.0735	F	F	39.66	614.66	260	471.27376800312	0.9300856833198	91	5	4	5	3	5	1	210	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.26	51.78	58.02	0.2528	0.5728	0.23	0.8028	F	F	32.26	603.26	260	471.27376800312	0.79357830974286	91	4	4	5	3	5	2	97.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.26	51.79	58.025	0.2528	0.4528	0.21	0.6628	F	F	32.26	598.26	260	471.27376800312	0.79357830974286	91	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	353	67	68.98	54.67	61.825	0.2571	0.6671	0.22	0.8871	F	F	36.98	610.98	260	471.27376800312	0.8921635845236	91	5	4	5	3	5	1	210	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	74.2	55.57	64.885	0.0412	0.2312	0.21	0.4412	F	F	42.2	609.2	260	471.27376800312	0.95567424535329	91	5	4	5	2	5	1	140	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	73.42	54.73	64.075	0.1136	0.4636	0.2	0.6636	F	F	41.42	623.42	260	471.27376800312	0.94877447449577	91	5	4	5	2	5	1	140	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	72.04	54.68	63.36	0.1045	0.2945	0.2	0.4945	F	F	40.04	623.04	260	471.27376800312	0.93450916560004	91	5	4	5	2	5	1	140	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	62.31	48.85	55.58	0.4271	0.7671	0.3	1.0671	F	F	30.31	612.31	260	471.27376800312	0.74080026012433	91	4	4	5	3	5	2	97.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	353	67	57.62	45.96	51.79	0.3109	0.9509	0.32	1.2709	F	F	25.62	601.62	260	471.27376800312	0.5908005456917	91	3	4	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	353	67	57.61	45.95	51.78	0.3109	0.9509	0.31	1.2609	F	F	25.61	601.61	260	471.27376800312	0.59045569882001	91	3	4	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	57.61	45.95	51.78	0.3109	0.9509	0.31	1.2609	F	F	25.61	604.61	260	471.27376800312	0.59045569882001	91	3	4	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.1	49.37	56.735	0.0017	0.7317	0.32	1.0517	F	F	32.1	632.1	260	471.27376800312	0.78950264784698	91	4	4	5	3	5	2	97.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	64.1	49.38	56.74	0.001	0.731	0.32	1.051	F	F	32.1	632.1	260	471.27376800312	0.78950264784698	91	4	4	5	3	5	2	97.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	353	67	58.04	49.39	53.715	0.0008	0.7308	0.32	1.0508	F	F	26.04	626.04	260	471.27376800312	0.60521753533697	91	3	4	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	353	67	51.84	50.48	51.16	0.0007	0.7707	0.54	1.3107	F	F	19.84	610.84	260	471.27376800312	0.38846889101673	91	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	353	67	51.08	50.67	50.875	0.0007	0.7707	0.53	1.3007	F	F	19.08	607.08	260	471.27376800312	0.36288616101774	91	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH