morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 19, 2020

[ Friday, September 18, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 20, 2020 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 46.60°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 43.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 44.99°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.221 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 566 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.40 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.44 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.44 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 262 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 45.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-20 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	355	69	46.59998	43.37996	44.98997	0.39999999999998	0.43999999999998	0	0.43999999999998	F	F	14.59998	565.59998	262	472.23247964746	0.22134390722332	92	1	4	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-09-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	45.77	45.77	45.77	0.0081	0.0481	0	0.0481	F	F	13.77	564.77	263	472.70911005348	0.19856019192337	92	1	4	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	51.53	44.16	47.845	0.123	0.163	0	0.163	F	F	19.53	570.53	263	472.70911005348	0.38290668456517	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	46.65	43.85	45.25	0.2287	0.2687	0	0.2687	F	F	14.65	565.65	263	472.70911005348	0.22276307382366	92	1	4	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-09-19 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	355	69	48.58	44.31	46.445	0.3061	0.3461	0	0.3461	F	F	16.58	567.58	263	472.70911005348	0.28130806268334	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-19 00:05:17	FORECAST	2020	355	69	48.93	44.12	46.525	0.2592	0.2792	0	0.2792	F	F	16.93	564.93	262	472.23247964746	0.2926680373445	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	48.33	44.67	46.5	0.2729	0.9629	0	0.9629	F	F	16.33	570.33	262	472.23247964746	0.27332617155376	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	51.71	44.87	48.29	0.2528	0.9428	0	0.9428	F	F	19.71	573.71	262	472.23247964746	0.38946869912054	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.85	43.49	47.17	0.456	1.146	0	1.146	F	F	18.85	572.85	262	472.23247964746	0.35843292329611	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.91	44.2	47.555	0.2528	0.8128	0	0.8128	F	F	18.91	573.91	262	472.23247964746	0.36057081612511	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	47.88	44.17	46.025	0.2381	0.8581	0	0.8581	F	F	15.88	571.88	262	472.23247964746	0.25924706773372	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 23:59:18	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.9	44.37	47.635	0.3549	0.7549	0	0.7549	F	F	18.9	575.9	262	472.23247964746	0.36021419587376	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.59	44.33	47.46	0.2964	0.7364	0	0.7364	F	F	18.59	575.59	262	472.23247964746	0.34922063604162	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 15:59:16	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.6	43.74	47.17	0.2777	1.0277	0	1.0277	F	F	18.6	576.6	262	472.23247964746	0.34957335910591	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	50.66	42.82	46.74	0.2564	0.7664	0	0.7664	F	F	18.66	576.66	262	472.23247964746	0.35169241474424	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	47.99	43.49	45.74	0.377	0.697	0	0.697	F	F	15.99	573.99	262	472.23247964746	0.26265374629407	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	49.99	43.52	46.755	0.3604	0.9504	0	0.9504	F	F	17.99	570.99	262	472.23247964746	0.32830496283528	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	49.35	45.04	47.195	0.2056	0.6156	0	0.6156	F	F	17.35	558.35	262	472.23247964746	0.30657426476109	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.13	45.08	49.605	0.2749	0.7249	0.02	0.7449	F	F	22.13	583.13	262	472.23247964746	0.48001651839043	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	53.58	43.76	48.67	0.4126	1.0926	0.02	1.1126	F	F	21.58	582.58	262	472.23247964746	0.45917224346736	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	51.03	44.94	47.985	0.2526	0.9226	0.02	0.9426	F	F	19.03	578.03	262	472.23247964746	0.3648596360137	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	51.04	44.85	47.945	0.2535	0.8635	0.02	0.8835	F	F	19.04	575.04	262	472.23247964746	0.36521781045933	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	53.79	43.69	48.74	0.2329	0.9429	0.01	0.9529	F	F	21.79	576.79	262	472.23247964746	0.46712086429634	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.07	44.25	49.16	0.2906	1.0106	0.01	1.0206	F	F	22.07	570.07	262	472.23247964746	0.47773890739891	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.08	44.05	49.065	0.2785	0.9885	0.04	1.0285	F	F	22.08	585.08	262	472.23247964746	0.47811846075901	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.04	43.81	48.925	0.3013	1.1113	0.04	1.1513	F	F	22.04	585.04	262	472.23247964746	0.47660036983527	92	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	55.42	45.19	50.305	0.0981	0.6681	0.04	0.7081	F	F	23.42	583.42	262	472.23247964746	0.52901996517254	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	55.44	45.19	50.315	0.0981	0.7681	0.06	0.8281	F	F	23.44	578.44	262	472.23247964746	0.52977817034497	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	355	69	56.96	44.54	50.75	0.09	0.81	0.07	0.88	F	F	24.96	580.96	262	472.23247964746	0.58688791308772	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	57.74	44.69	51.215	0.0978	0.7678	0.1	0.8678	F	F	25.74	579.74	262	472.23247964746	0.6155713675865	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.7	45.28	49.99	0.123	0.683	0.09	0.773	F	F	22.7	583.7	262	472.23247964746	0.50167586028617	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	57.75	43.32	50.535	0.0935	0.5935	0.07	0.6635	F	F	25.75	591.75	262	472.23247964746	0.61593538959844	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	355	69	56.5	44.52	50.51	0.1742	0.7142	0.17	0.8842	F	F	24.5	583.5	262	472.23247964746	0.56974115921519	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	55.68	44.28	49.98	0.1742	0.7242	0.15	0.8742	F	F	23.68	577.68	262	472.23247964746	0.53886743086943	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.51	44.48	49.495	0.1918	0.7818	0.18	0.9618	F	F	22.51	584.51	262	472.23247964746	0.49445347358454	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	355	69	53.48	45.17	49.325	0.1801	0.9701	0.24	1.2101	F	F	21.48	578.48	262	472.23247964746	0.45539271783544	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	53.47	45.19	49.33	0.1801	0.9701	0.28	1.2501	F	F	21.47	595.47	262	472.23247964746	0.45501498149273	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	55.07	44.4	49.735	0.2457	1.0157	0.32	1.3357	F	F	23.07	595.07	262	472.23247964746	0.51573678727961	92	3	4	4	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	55.42	45.62	50.52	0.1996	0.5296	0.32	0.8496	F	F	23.42	597.42	262	472.23247964746	0.52901996517254	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	53.85	45.67	49.76	0.3389	0.6689	0.32	0.9889	F	F	21.85	594.85	262	472.23247964746	0.46939444944858	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	54.16	45.49	49.825	0.3269	0.7469	0.3	1.0469	F	F	22.16	595.16	262	472.23247964746	0.48115557325985	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	355	69	56.95	43.53	50.24	0.0061	0.3661	0.33	0.6961	F	F	24.95	593.95	262	472.23247964746	0.58651679012324	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	355	69	56.95	44.76	50.855	0.005	0.365	0.65	1.015	F	F	24.95	612.95	262	472.23247964746	0.58651679012324	92	3	4	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	355	69	59.33	45.77	52.55	0.0054	0.5454	0.68	1.2254	F	F	27.33	615.33	262	472.23247964746	0.6719764126234	92	3	4	5	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	355	69	46.8	45.25	46.025	0.1636	1.2336	0.36	1.5936	F	F	14.8	587.8	262	472.23247964746	0.22704976553756	92	1	4	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	355	69	46.81	45.55	46.18	0.1179	1.1879	0.22	1.4079	F	F	14.81	582.81	262	472.23247964746	0.22733718632454	92	1	4	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	355	69	47.73	46.8	47.265	0.0546	0.8546	0.44	1.2946	F	F	15.73	599.73	262	472.23247964746	0.2546386223655	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH