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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 19, 2020

[ Friday, September 18, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 20, 2020 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2020 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.259
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 572

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.86 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 262
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203556947.8844.1746.02500.23810.858100.8581FF15.88571.88262472.2324796474600.259247067733729224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 23:59:18FORECAST20203556950.944.3747.63500.35490.754900.7549FF18.9575.9262472.2324796474600.360214195873769224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203556950.5944.3347.4600.29640.736400.7364FF18.59575.59262472.2324796474600.349220636041629224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203556950.643.7447.1700.27771.027701.0277FF18.6576.6262472.2324796474600.3495733591059192244452100DRYVH
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203556950.6642.8246.7400.25640.766400.7664FF18.66576.66262472.2324796474600.351692414744249224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203556947.9943.4945.7400.3770.69700.697FF15.99573.99262472.2324796474600.262653746294079224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203556949.9943.5246.75500.36040.950400.9504FF17.99570.99262472.2324796474600.328304962835289224435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203556949.3545.0447.19500.20560.615600.6156FF17.35558.35262472.2324796474600.306574264761099224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203556954.1345.0849.60500.27490.72490.020.7449FF22.13583.13262472.2324796474600.480016518390439224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20203556953.5843.7648.6700.41261.09260.021.1126FF21.58582.58262472.2324796474600.4591722434673692244452100DRYVH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203556951.0344.9447.98500.25260.92260.020.9426FF19.03578.03262472.2324796474600.36485963601379224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203556951.0444.8547.94500.25350.86350.020.8835FF19.04575.04262472.2324796474600.365217810459339224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203556953.7943.6948.7400.23290.94290.010.9529FF21.79576.79262472.2324796474600.467120864296349224435275DRYVH
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203556954.0744.2549.1600.29061.01060.011.0206FF22.07570.07262472.2324796474600.4777389073989192244452100DRYVH
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203556954.0844.0549.06500.27850.98850.041.0285FF22.08585.08262472.2324796474600.478118460759019224435275DRYVH
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203556954.0443.8148.92500.30131.11130.041.1513FF22.04585.04262472.2324796474600.4766003698352792244452100DRYVH
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203556955.4245.1950.30500.09810.66810.040.7081FF23.42583.42262472.2324796474600.529019965172549234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203556955.4445.1950.31500.09810.76810.060.8281FF23.44578.44262472.2324796474600.529778170344979234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203556956.9644.5450.7500.090.810.070.88FF24.96580.96262472.2324796474600.586887913087729234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203556957.7444.6951.21500.09780.76780.10.8678FF25.74579.74262472.2324796474600.61557136758659234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203556954.745.2849.9900.1230.6830.090.773FF22.7583.7262472.2324796474600.501675860286179234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203556957.7543.3250.53500.09350.59350.070.6635FF25.75591.75262472.2324796474600.615935389598449234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 11:59:27FORECAST20203556956.544.5250.5100.17420.71420.170.8842FF24.5583.5262472.2324796474600.569741159215199234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20203556955.6844.2849.9800.17420.72420.150.8742FF23.68577.68262472.2324796474600.538867430869439234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 03:59:29FORECAST20203556954.5144.4849.49500.19180.78180.180.9618FF22.51584.51262472.2324796474600.494453473584549224435275DRYVH
2020-09-14 00:05:08FORECAST20203556953.4845.1749.32500.18010.97010.241.2101FF21.48578.48262472.2324796474600.455392717835449224435275DRYVH
2020-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20203556953.4745.1949.3300.18010.97010.281.2501FF21.47595.47262472.2324796474600.455014981492739224435275DRYVH
2020-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20203556955.0744.449.73500.24571.01570.321.3357FF23.07595.07262472.2324796474600.5157367872796192344452110DRYVH
2020-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20203556955.4245.6250.5200.19960.52960.320.8496FF23.42597.42262472.2324796474600.529019965172549234435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20203556953.8545.6749.7600.33890.66890.320.9889FF21.85594.85262472.2324796474600.469394449448589224435275DRYVH
2020-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203556954.1645.4949.82500.32690.74690.31.0469FF22.16595.16262472.2324796474600.481155573259859224435275DRYVH
2020-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20203556956.9543.5350.2400.00610.36610.330.6961FF24.95593.95262472.2324796474600.586516790123249234425255DRYH
2020-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20203556956.9544.7650.85500.0050.3650.651.015FF24.95612.95262472.2324796474600.586516790123249234525260DRYH
2020-09-12 15:59:34FORECAST20203556959.3345.7752.5500.00540.54540.681.2254FF27.33615.33262472.2324796474600.67197641262349234535290DRYVH
2020-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20203556946.845.2546.02500.16361.23360.361.5936FF14.8587.8262472.2324796474600.227049765537569214445290DRYVH
2020-09-12 07:50:39FORECAST20203556946.8145.5546.1800.11791.18790.221.4079FF14.81582.81262472.2324796474600.227337186324549214445290DRYVH
2020-09-12 04:05:07FORECAST20203556947.7346.847.26500.05460.85460.441.2946FF15.73599.73262472.2324796474600.25463862236559224535282.5DRYVH