Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 7, 2020

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DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/08/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.56°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.99°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.78°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.260 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 26 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 551 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.03 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 219 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-08 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	312	26	57.56	35.99006	46.77503	0	0.03000000000003	0.09000000000003	0.01	0.10000000000003	F	F	25.56	550.56	219	449.92553989522	0	0.25976365280013	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	48.19	48.19	48.19	0	0.0042	0.0642	0.01	0.0742	F	F	16.19	541.19	220	450.48677582001	0	0.054906594182957	97	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.52	46.56	54.04	0	0.0158	0.0758	0.01	0.0858	F	F	29.52	554.52	220	450.48677582001	0	0.40477909113438	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-07 10:55:13	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.83	47.41	54.12	0	0.0139	0.0739	0.01	0.0839	F	F	28.83	553.83	220	450.48677582001	0	0.37781428553972	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	56.32	41.47	48.895	8.233556	0.0128	0.0728	0.01	0.0828	F	F	24.32	549.32	220	453.53764980028	3.734227637739	0.22055750918813	97	1	2	4	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-08-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.59	42.35	51.47	8.3885713333333	0.0197	0.0797	0.01	0.0897	F	F	28.59	553.59	220	453.59447969118	3.8050096492957	0.36856576203841	97	2	2	4	1	3	2	12	DRY	L
2020-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.25	40.88	51.065	4.764352	0.0174	0.0274	0.01	0.0374	F	F	29.25	547.25	219	451.70545452997	2.1520837857008	0.39416592919243	97	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-08-06 20:04:06	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.54	39.79	50.165	5.8894293333333	0.0098	0.0898	0.01	0.0998	F	F	28.54	552.54	219	452.1226377847	2.6627443252333	0.36664832614581	97	2	2	4	1	3	2	12	DRY	L
2020-08-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.8	40.7	50.75	5.78682	0.0175	0.0975	0.01	0.1075	F	F	28.8	552.8	219	452.08463921358	2.6161324318939	0.3766542593685	97	2	2	4	2	3	2	24	DRY	L
2020-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.55	41.65	51.6	4.7873493333333	0.0111	0.0911	0.01	0.1011	F	F	29.55	553.55	219	451.71399397568	2.1625126879168	0.40596282192816	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.69	41.9	51.795	4.444152	0.0093	0.1593	0.01	0.1693	F	F	29.69	556.69	219	451.58650497183	2.0069190692436	0.41149810368414	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	57.57	41.65	49.61	3.9389874166667	0.0042	0.1942	0.01	0.2042	F	F	25.57	550.57	219	451.39864699041	1.7780535903956	0.2600938022256	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.71	41.72	51.715	0	0.004	0.194	0.01	0.204	F	F	29.71	544.71	219	449.92553989522	0	0.41229032547381	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.97	41.45	51.21	1.7510333333333	0.0044	0.2444	0.01	0.2544	F	F	28.97	560.97	219	450.58221335299	0.7889844749882	0.38324216060639	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.91	41.66	51.785	1.7150626666667	0.0044	0.2444	0.01	0.2544	F	F	29.91	561.91	219	450.56875297584	0.77275364699542	0.42023168800114	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.83	41.87	51.35	0	0.0063	0.2163	0.01	0.2263	F	F	28.83	559.83	219	449.92553989522	0	0.37781428553972	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.79	41.77	51.78	0	0.0087	0.2587	0.01	0.2687	F	F	29.79	563.79	219	449.92553989522	0	0.41546275616642	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 03:52:19	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.85	41.45	51.65	0	0.0077	0.2277	0.01	0.2377	F	F	29.85	555.85	219	449.92553989522	0	0.41784571221698	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.79	41.02	50.905	0	0.0142	0.3442	0.01	0.3542	F	F	28.79	560.79	219	449.92553989522	0	0.37626783067098	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.2	41.03	51.115	0.45917066666667	0.0083	0.2383	0.03	0.2683	F	F	29.2	575.2	219	450.09802094391	0.20667180834216	0.39220886707587	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.42	41.22	51.32	0.414672	0.0037	0.1937	0.03	0.2237	F	F	29.42	580.42	219	450.08131444265	0.18663611882256	0.40083966748593	97	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	58.37	41.29	49.83	0	0.0038	0.1638	0.03	0.1938	F	F	26.37	571.37	219	449.92553989522	0	0.28718721392312	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	58.36	41.59	49.975	0	0.0036	0.1836	0.03	0.2136	F	F	26.36	571.36	219	449.92553989522	0	0.28684047286447	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	62.97	40.91	51.94	0	0.0067	0.1767	0.03	0.2067	F	F	30.97	577.97	219	449.92553989522	0	0.46278838535215	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.96	41.04	51.5	0	0.0021	0.2121	0.01	0.2221	F	F	29.96	562.96	219	449.92553989522	0	0.42222224641795	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 19:58:25	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.96	40.91	51.435	0	0.0026	0.2426	0.05	0.2926	F	F	29.96	577.96	219	449.92553989522	0	0.42222224641795	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 15:52:40	FORECAST	2020	312	26	57.12	41.74	49.43	0	0.0013	0.2213	0.04	0.2613	F	F	25.12	573.12	219	449.92553989522	0	0.24545375300086	97	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 11:58:24	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.91	43.29	52.6	0	0	0.15	0.04	0.19	F	F	29.91	579.91	219	449.92553989522	0	0.42023168800114	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.91	43.29	52.6	0	0	0.15	0.04	0.19	F	F	29.91	576.91	219	449.92553989522	0	0.42023168800114	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.53	42.32	51.925	0	0.0006	0.1906	0.03	0.2206	F	F	29.53	580.53	219	449.92553989522	0	0.40517357184874	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 00:04:00	FORECAST	2020	312	26	59.37	41.65	50.51	0	0.0236	0.1836	0.03	0.2136	F	F	27.37	561.37	219	449.92553989522	0	0.32281842286881	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	59.37	41.65	50.51	0	0.0236	0.1936	0.04	0.2336	F	F	27.37	578.37	219	449.92553989522	0	0.32281842286881	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	59.73	41.51	50.62	0	0.0248	0.1748	0.06	0.2348	F	F	27.73	578.73	219	449.92553989522	0	0.33607868895897	97	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	62.36	43.79	53.075	0	0.0048	0.0348	0.03	0.0648	F	F	30.36	580.36	219	449.92553989522	0	0.43821410592883	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	62.36	43.79	53.075	0	0.0048	0.0348	0.03	0.0648	F	F	30.36	579.36	219	449.92553989522	0	0.43821410592883	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-02 03:52:45	FORECAST	2020	312	26	62.41	43.69	53.05	0	0.0057	0.0857	0.02	0.1057	F	F	30.41	588.41	219	449.92553989522	0	0.440220760155	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.97	41.42	51.195	0	0.0025	0.0725	0.02	0.0925	F	F	28.97	587.97	219	449.92553989522	0	0.38324216060639	97	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	312	26	60.97	41.42	51.195	0	0.0025	0.0725	0.03	0.1025	F	F	28.97	603.97	219	449.92553989522	0	0.38324216060639	97	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	61.23	41.92	51.575	0	0.0021	0.0721	0.01	0.0821	F	F	29.23	605.23	219	449.92553989522	0	0.39338278070475	97	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	64.29	45.13	54.71	0	0.0002	0.0502	0.01	0.0602	F	F	32.29	610.29	219	449.92553989522	0	0.51632872029969	97	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	64.29	45.13	54.71	0	0.0002	0.0502	0.02	0.0702	F	F	32.29	605.29	219	449.92553989522	0	0.51632872029969	97	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	312	26	65.49	45.21	55.35	0	0.0002	0.0502	0.02	0.0702	F	F	33.49	616.49	219	449.92553989522	0	0.56477244033962	97	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-31 23:52:33	FORECAST	2020	312	26	71.78	51.86	61.82	0	0.001	0.001	0.04	0.041	F	F	39.78	626.78	219	449.92553989522	0	0.78911363441706	97	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 19:52:12	FORECAST	2020	312	26	71.78	51.86	61.82	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.04	0.0403	F	F	39.78	624.78	219	449.92553989522	0	0.78911363441706	97	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	70.92	49.97	60.445	0	0.0008	0.0108	0.03	0.0408	F	F	38.92	622.92	219	449.92553989522	0	0.7629401518767	97	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	312	26	65.17	52.65	58.91	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.07	0.0702	F	F	33.17	612.17	219	449.92553989522	0	0.55191853659969	97	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-31 08:03:55	FORECAST	2020	312	26	54.57	52.65	53.61	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.08	0.0802	F	F	22.57	599.57	219	449.92553989522	0	0.17143489371943	97	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-07-31 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	312	26	53.53	53.04	53.285	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.09	0.0902	F	F	21.53	600.53	219	449.92553989522	0	0.14583980855955	97	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L