MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 7, 2020

[ Thursday, August 6, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 8, 2020 ]

DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.392
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 97 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 575

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.27 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 219
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20203122661.241.0351.1150.459170666666670.00830.23830.030.2683FF29.2575.2219450.098020943910.206671808342160.392208867075879722424232DRYL
2020-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203122661.4241.2251.320.4146720.00370.19370.030.2237FF29.42580.42219450.081314442650.186636118822560.400839667485939722424232DRYL
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203122658.3741.2949.8300.00380.16380.030.1938FF26.37571.37219449.9255398952200.287187213923129722425240DRYM
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203122658.3641.5949.97500.00360.18360.030.2136FF26.36571.36219449.9255398952200.286840472864479722425240DRYM
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203122662.9740.9151.9400.00670.17670.030.2067FF30.97577.97219449.9255398952200.462788385352159722425240DRYM
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203122661.9641.0451.500.00210.21210.010.2221FF29.96562.96219449.9255398952200.422222246417959722425240DRYM
2020-08-03 19:58:25FORECAST20203122661.9640.9151.43500.00260.24260.050.2926FF29.96577.96219449.9255398952200.422222246417959722425240DRYM
2020-08-03 15:52:40FORECAST20203122657.1241.7449.4300.00130.22130.040.2613FF25.12573.12219449.9255398952200.245453753000869712425235DRYL
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203122661.9143.2952.6000.150.040.19FF29.91579.91219449.9255398952200.420231688001149722425240DRYM
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203122661.9143.2952.6000.150.040.19FF29.91576.91219449.9255398952200.420231688001149722425240DRYM
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203122661.5342.3251.92500.00060.19060.030.2206FF29.53580.53219449.9255398952200.405173571848749722425240DRYM
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203122659.3741.6550.5100.02360.18360.030.2136FF27.37561.37219449.9255398952200.322818422868819722425240DRYM
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203122659.3741.6550.5100.02360.19360.040.2336FF27.37578.37219449.9255398952200.322818422868819722425240DRYM
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203122659.7341.5150.6200.02480.17480.060.2348FF27.73578.73219449.9255398952200.336078688958979722425240DRYM
2020-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20203122662.3643.7953.07500.00480.03480.030.0648FF30.36580.36219449.9255398952200.438214105928839722415220DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20203122662.3643.7953.07500.00480.03480.030.0648FF30.36579.36219449.9255398952200.438214105928839722415220DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203122662.4143.6953.0500.00570.08570.020.1057FF30.41588.41219449.9255398952200.4402207601559722415220DRYL
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203122660.9741.4251.19500.00250.07250.020.0925FF28.97587.97219449.9255398952200.383242160606399722415220DRYL
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203122660.9741.4251.19500.00250.07250.030.1025FF28.97603.97219449.9255398952200.383242160606399722515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 16:00:04FORECAST20203122661.2341.9251.57500.00210.07210.010.0821FF29.23605.23219449.9255398952200.393382780704759722515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203122664.2945.1354.7100.00020.05020.010.0602FF32.29610.29219449.9255398952200.516328720299699732515225DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203122664.2945.1354.7100.00020.05020.020.0702FF32.29605.29219449.9255398952200.516328720299699732515225DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203122665.4945.2155.3500.00020.05020.020.0702FF33.49616.49219449.9255398952200.564772440339629732515225DRYL
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203122671.7851.8661.8200.0010.0010.040.041FF39.78626.78219449.9255398952200.789113634417069742515155DRYH
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203122671.7851.8661.8200.00030.00030.040.0403FF39.78624.78219449.9255398952200.789113634417069742515155DRYH
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203122670.9249.9760.44500.00080.01080.030.0408FF38.92622.92219449.9255398952200.76294015187679742515155DRYH
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203122665.1752.6558.9100.00020.00020.070.0702FF33.17612.17219449.9255398952200.551918536599699732515225DRYL
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203122654.5752.6553.6100.00020.00020.080.0802FF22.57599.57219449.9255398952200.171434893719439712515220DRYL
2020-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20203122653.5353.0453.28500.00020.00020.090.0902FF21.53600.53219449.9255398952200.145839808559559712515220DRYL