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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 6, 2020

[ Wednesday, August 5, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, August 7, 2020 ]

DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.070
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 218
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20203112549.6241.5245.572.6524520.22220.262200.2622FF17.62586.62218450.359536948381.19455705449780.0698333699744429612424228DRYL
2020-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203112554.6241.9848.32.61987066666670.17740.217400.2174FF22.62591.62218450.347326498021.17985175050390.169751750906399612424228DRYL
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203112549.1741.845.4850.281941333333330.15560.185600.1856FF17.17586.17218449.468501682160.12672374865560.0637467482611629612424228DRYL
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203112549.1442.0945.61500.18460.214600.2146FF17.14586.14218449.3621672166600.063356078827269612425235DRYL
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203112549.5642.3945.97500.15990.199900.1999FF17.56587.56218449.3621672166600.0689969756630089612425235DRYL
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203112551.342.0746.68500.20060.220600.2206FF19.3574.3218449.3621672166600.0965337026806389612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 19:58:25FORECAST20203112551.3242.747.0100.22610.24610.040.2861FF19.32589.32218449.3621672166600.0968913048491929612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 15:52:40FORECAST20203112550.442.9246.6600.20920.21920.040.2592FF18.4589.4218449.3621672166600.081425826068749612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203112551.9743.0247.49500.13870.14870.040.1887FF19.97590.97218449.3621672166600.109046347492029612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203112554.1743.2448.70500.13810.14810.040.1881FF22.17588.17218449.3621672166600.158152911398279612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203112553.3642.2847.8200.17760.18760.030.2176FF21.36592.36218449.3621672166600.138613469944119612425235DRYL
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203112551.1541.3446.24500.15370.16370.030.1937FF19.15575.15218449.3621672166600.0938824476269439612425235DRYL
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203112551.941.3446.6200.16120.17120.040.2112FF19.9591.9218449.3621672166600.107687163809849612425235DRYL
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203112552.4541.1346.7900.14350.16350.050.2135FF20.45592.45218449.3621672166600.118698228233899612425235DRYL
2020-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20203112555.4843.7749.62500.03470.03470.030.0647FF23.48591.48218449.3621672166600.193390582222939612415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20203112555.4843.7749.62500.03470.03470.030.0647FF23.48590.48218449.3621672166600.193390582222939612415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203112555.5343.9749.7500.07840.07840.020.0984FF23.53598.53218449.3621672166600.194823921013959612415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203112552.3241.3846.8500.070.070.020.09FF20.32600.32218449.3621672166600.116026679415349612515220DRYL
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203112552.3241.3846.8500.070.070.030.1FF20.32616.32218449.3621672166600.116026679415349612515220DRYL
2020-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20203112553.1942.0447.61500.06850.06850.010.0785FF21.19617.19218449.3621672166600.134730336412829612515220DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203112557.5145.3951.4500.05170.05170.010.0617FF25.51618.51218449.3621672166600.256606438228579622515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203112557.5145.3951.4500.05170.05170.020.0717FF25.51613.51218449.3621672166600.256606438228579622515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203112558.7945.4652.12500.05370.05370.020.0737FF26.79623.79218449.3621672166600.301382728072829622515222.5DRYL
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203112565.8350.9258.37500.00190.00190.040.0419FF33.83627.83218449.3621672166600.584447590560699632515225DRYL
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203112565.8350.9258.37500.00190.00190.040.0419FF33.83625.83218449.3621672166600.584447590560699632515225DRYL
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203112562.7450.656.6700.01460.01460.030.0446FF30.74624.74218449.3621672166600.456698956400729622515222.5DRYL
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203112569.3951.1760.2800.00150.00150.070.0715FF37.39620.39218449.3621672166600.720497017243249642515155DRYH
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203112569.3951.1760.2800.00150.00150.080.0815FF37.39618.39218449.3621672166600.720497017243249642515155DRYH
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203112569.150.96000.00170.00170.090.0917FF37.1620.1218449.3621672166600.710242102322269642515155DRYH
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203112567.6951.5259.60500.0020.0020.090.092FF35.69611.69218449.3621672166600.658045634636079632515225DRYL
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203112567.6951.5259.60500.0020.0020.10.102FF35.69624.69218449.3621672166600.658045634636079632515225DRYL
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203112565.3951.4258.40500.0020.0020.10.102FF33.39627.39218449.3621672166600.566483415586829632515225DRYL
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203112566.6556.4661.55500.00060.01060.130.1406FF34.65622.65218449.3621672166600.617432764227069632515225DRYL
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203112558.0656.4657.26000.010.130.14FF26.06613.06218449.3621672166600.275415720568579622515222.5DRYL
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203112558.7957.5758.18000.010.10.11FF26.79621.79218449.3621672166600.301382728072829622515222.5DRYL