Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 8, 2020

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DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.85°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.32°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.58°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.071 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 548 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 220 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 17.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-09 04:04:12	OBSERVATION	2020	313	27	48.84998	42.31994	45.58496	0	0	0.09	0.01	0.1	F	F	16.84998	547.84998	220	450.48677582001	0	0.070570750188884	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-09 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	313	27	45.44	45.44	45.44	0	0.0056	0.0956	0.01	0.1056	F	F	13.44	544.44	221	451.04588309528	0	0.036132844928858	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.1	46.1	53.1	0	0.0453	0.1353	0.01	0.1453	F	F	28.1	559.1	221	451.04588309528	0	0.34486872540474	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-08 07:52:26	FORECAST	2020	313	27	59.4	44.16	51.78	0	0.0406	0.1306	0.01	0.1406	F	F	27.4	558.4	221	451.04588309528	0	0.32065042871969	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	313	27	58.89	44.9	51.895	0	0.0346	0.1246	0.01	0.1346	F	F	26.89	557.89	221	451.04588309528	0	0.30346691341811	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.57	45.7	53.135	0	0.0206	0.0806	0.01	0.0906	F	F	28.57	549.57	220	450.48677582001	0	0.36150147595181	95	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60	44.52	52.26	0	0.0304	0.1104	0.01	0.1204	F	F	28	563	220	450.48677582001	0	0.34136688555802	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.53	45	52.765	0	0.0344	0.1144	0.01	0.1244	F	F	28.53	563.53	220	450.48677582001	0	0.36007516078837	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	59.62	45.35	52.485	0	0.0162	0.0962	0.01	0.1062	F	F	27.62	562.62	220	450.48677582001	0	0.32818611675531	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-07 10:55:13	FORECAST	2020	313	27	59.63	45.35	52.49	0	0.0162	0.0862	0.01	0.0962	F	F	27.63	561.63	220	450.48677582001	0	0.32853034393213	95	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	59.93	45.6	52.765	5.778968	0.0144	0.0844	0.01	0.0944	F	F	27.93	556.93	220	452.63478897783	2.6157619611896	0.33892367241612	95	2	2	4	1	3	2	12	DRY	L
2020-08-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	55.98	44.17	50.075	6.1087526666667	0.0172	0.0972	0.01	0.1072	F	F	23.98	557.98	220	452.75641987603	2.7657769872681	0.21428319809549	95	1	2	4	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2020-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	59.54	45.73	52.635	2.3767306666667	0.0278	0.0578	0.01	0.0678	F	F	27.54	554.54	220	451.37401333289	1.0727944596247	0.32543756672769	95	2	2	4	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2020-08-06 20:04:06	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.67	44.76	52.715	3.5112106666667	0.0136	0.1036	0.01	0.1136	F	F	28.67	561.67	220	451.79563181306	1.5863496415754	0.36507565206866	95	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.49	45.72	53.105	3.346172	0.0163	0.1163	0.01	0.1263	F	F	28.49	561.49	220	451.73437228391	1.511580907974	0.35865079004575	95	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.17	45.64	53.405	2.3051546666667	0.0326	0.1226	0.01	0.1326	F	F	29.17	563.17	220	451.34737204141	1.040425500949	0.38311707399458	95	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.17	45.76	53.465	1.984808	0.0111	0.1711	0.01	0.1811	F	F	29.17	566.17	220	451.22807649328	0.89560109604848	0.38311707399458	95	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.9	45.26	53.08	1.5070314166667	0.0115	0.2015	0.01	0.2115	F	F	28.9	559.9	220	451.04997436437	0.67974648185379	0.37334039623007	95	2	2	4	2	4	2	32	DRY	L
2020-08-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	60.64	46.52	53.58	0	0.0257	0.2157	0.01	0.2257	F	F	28.64	553.64	220	450.48677582001	0	0.36400215192247	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	62.17	46.18	54.175	0	0.0135	0.2235	0.04	0.2635	F	F	30.17	571.17	220	450.48677582001	0	0.41993289762405	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	62.01	46.42	54.215	0	0.0142	0.2242	0.04	0.2642	F	F	30.01	572.01	220	450.48677582001	0	0.41398595796886	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	62.49	45.32	53.905	0	0.0058	0.1958	0.04	0.2358	F	F	30.49	570.49	220	450.48677582001	0	0.43188045381153	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	58.1	45.5	51.8	0	0.0026	0.2326	0.04	0.2726	F	F	26.1	570.1	220	450.48677582001	0	0.27769585854538	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-05 03:52:19	FORECAST	2020	313	27	64.55	45.58	55.065	0	0.0017	0.2117	0.03	0.2417	F	F	32.55	568.55	220	450.48677582001	0	0.50981433363618	95	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	63.57	43.7	53.635	0	0.0104	0.3304	0.03	0.3604	F	F	31.57	572.57	220	450.48677582001	0	0.47260199058645	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	63.58	43.42	53.5	0	0.0104	0.2404	0.04	0.2804	F	F	31.58	586.58	220	450.48677582001	0	0.47298105460011	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	64.7	45.12	54.91	0	0.0006	0.1806	0.04	0.2206	F	F	32.7	592.7	220	450.48677582001	0	0.51551063432886	95	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2020-08-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	63.97	44.73	54.35	0	0.0028	0.1628	0.03	0.1928	F	F	31.97	582.97	220	450.48677582001	0	0.4877802501915	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	63.97	44.73	54.35	0	0.0028	0.1828	0.03	0.2128	F	F	31.97	582.97	220	450.48677582001	0	0.4877802501915	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	62.39	44.42	53.405	0	0.0041	0.1741	0.04	0.2141	F	F	30.39	588.39	220	450.48677582001	0	0.42813960793975	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.94	46.26	54.1	0	0.0015	0.2015	0.02	0.2215	F	F	29.94	572.94	220	450.48677582001	0	0.41139027537135	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 19:58:25	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.94	46.26	54.1	0	0.0015	0.2315	0.06	0.2915	F	F	29.94	587.94	220	450.48677582001	0	0.41139027537135	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 15:52:40	FORECAST	2020	313	27	64.13	46.81	55.47	0	0.0021	0.2121	0.05	0.2621	F	F	32.13	585.13	220	450.48677582001	0	0.4938577497347	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-03 11:58:24	FORECAST	2020	313	27	56.98	46.83	51.905	0	0.0051	0.1451	0.05	0.1951	F	F	24.98	584.98	220	450.48677582001	0	0.24309428733059	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	56.98	46.83	51.905	0	0.0051	0.1451	0.05	0.1951	F	F	24.98	581.98	220	450.48677582001	0	0.24309428733059	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	56.79	45.66	51.225	0	0.0813	0.2613	0.04	0.3013	F	F	24.79	585.79	220	450.48677582001	0	0.23746431549968	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 00:04:00	FORECAST	2020	313	27	54.66	45.46	50.06	0	0.0054	0.1754	0.04	0.2154	F	F	22.66	563.66	220	450.48677582001	0	0.17946211919544	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	54.66	45.46	50.06	0	0.0054	0.1854	0.05	0.2354	F	F	22.66	580.66	220	450.48677582001	0	0.17946211919544	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	58.41	46.45	52.43	0	0.0061	0.1661	0.07	0.2361	F	F	26.41	585.41	220	450.48677582001	0	0.28768065124271	95	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-08-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	55.99	44.15	50.07	0	0.0145	0.0445	0.03	0.0745	F	F	23.99	583.99	220	450.48677582001	0	0.21456113170368	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	55.99	44.15	50.07	0	0.0145	0.0445	0.03	0.0745	F	F	23.99	582.99	220	450.48677582001	0	0.21456113170368	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-02 03:52:45	FORECAST	2020	313	27	53.06	44.17	48.615	0	0.0366	0.1266	0.02	0.1466	F	F	21.06	589.06	220	450.48677582001	0	0.14232949830293	95	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.83	46.33	54.08	0	0.0015	0.0715	0.02	0.0915	F	F	29.83	597.83	220	450.48677582001	0	0.40731921083599	95	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	313	27	61.83	46.33	54.08	0	0.0015	0.0715	0.03	0.1015	F	F	29.83	613.83	220	450.48677582001	0	0.40731921083599	95	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	58.45	46.96	52.705	0	0.0116	0.0816	0.01	0.0916	F	F	26.45	611.45	220	450.48677582001	0	0.28898125440967	95	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	313	27	55.26	48.13	51.695	0	0	0.05	0.01	0.06	F	F	23.26	613.26	220	450.48677582001	0	0.19482693153096	95	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	313	27	49.2	48.13	48.665	0	0	0.05	0.02	0.07	F	F	17.2	602.2	220	450.48677582001	0	0.075198014300764	95	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	313	27	50.6	49.46	50.03	0	0	0.05	0.02	0.07	F	F	18.6	614.6	220	450.48677582001	0	0.096028652602568	95	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L