MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 8, 2020

[ Friday, August 7, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 9, 2020 ]

DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.473
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 587

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 220
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20203132763.5843.4253.500.01040.24040.040.2804FF31.58586.58220450.4867758200100.472981054600119522425240DRYM
2020-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20203132764.745.1254.9100.00060.18060.040.2206FF32.7592.7220450.4867758200100.515510634328869532425245DRYM
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203132763.9744.7354.3500.00280.16280.030.1928FF31.97582.97220450.4867758200100.48778025019159522425240DRYM
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203132763.9744.7354.3500.00280.18280.030.2128FF31.97582.97220450.4867758200100.48778025019159522425240DRYM
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203132762.3944.4253.40500.00410.17410.040.2141FF30.39588.39220450.4867758200100.428139607939759522425240DRYM
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203132761.9446.2654.100.00150.20150.020.2215FF29.94572.94220450.4867758200100.411390275371359522425240DRYM
2020-08-03 19:58:25FORECAST20203132761.9446.2654.100.00150.23150.060.2915FF29.94587.94220450.4867758200100.411390275371359522425240DRYM
2020-08-03 15:52:40FORECAST20203132764.1346.8155.4700.00210.21210.050.2621FF32.13585.13220450.4867758200100.49385774973479522425240DRYM
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203132756.9846.8351.90500.00510.14510.050.1951FF24.98584.98220450.4867758200100.243094287330599512425235DRYL
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203132756.9846.8351.90500.00510.14510.050.1951FF24.98581.98220450.4867758200100.243094287330599512425235DRYL
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203132756.7945.6651.22500.08130.26130.040.3013FF24.79585.79220450.4867758200100.237464315499689512425235DRYL
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203132754.6645.4650.0600.00540.17540.040.2154FF22.66563.66220450.4867758200100.179462119195449512425235DRYL
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203132754.6645.4650.0600.00540.18540.050.2354FF22.66580.66220450.4867758200100.179462119195449512425235DRYL
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203132758.4146.4552.4300.00610.16610.070.2361FF26.41585.41220450.4867758200100.287680651242719522425240DRYM
2020-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20203132755.9944.1550.0700.01450.04450.030.0745FF23.99583.99220450.4867758200100.214561131703689512415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20203132755.9944.1550.0700.01450.04450.030.0745FF23.99582.99220450.4867758200100.214561131703689512415217.5DRYL
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203132753.0644.1748.61500.03660.12660.020.1466FF21.06589.06220450.4867758200100.142329498302939512425235DRYL
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203132761.8346.3354.0800.00150.07150.020.0915FF29.83597.83220450.4867758200100.407319210835999522415220DRYL
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203132761.8346.3354.0800.00150.07150.030.1015FF29.83613.83220450.4867758200100.407319210835999522515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 16:00:04FORECAST20203132758.4546.9652.70500.01160.08160.010.0916FF26.45611.45220450.4867758200100.288981254409679522515222.5DRYL
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203132755.2648.1351.695000.050.010.06FF23.26613.26220450.4867758200100.194826931530969512515220DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203132749.248.1348.665000.050.020.07FF17.2602.2220450.4867758200100.0751980143007649512515220DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203132750.649.4650.03000.050.020.07FF18.6614.6220450.4867758200100.0960286526025689512515220DRYL