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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 28, 2020

[ Wednesday, May 27, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, May 29, 2020 ]

DAY 241 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/29/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.970
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 218

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 148
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-29 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020241-4569.7151.0299660.36998127.2618845833300.073.123.19FF37.71217.71148457.6264415238 58.2384033834830.9699642881820486 5121118DRYL
2020-05-29 00:00:01FORECAST2020241-4454.2254.2254.22128.878530666670.00250.07253.123.1925FF22.22202.22149458.7311110330959.1205915610320.65807196184405863121123DRYL
2020-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020241-4470.7753.0761.92128.755605333330.01620.08623.123.2062FF38.77218.77149458.687651498359.0586062275890.97622766232455865121118DRYL
2020-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2020241-4466.8151.8459.325128.3107280.00650.07653.123.1965FF34.81214.81149458.5302542438658.8343507320540.94562346106872865121124DRYL
2020-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020241-4470.7752.5761.67127.577990083330.01110.08113.123.2011FF38.77218.77149458.2706241101658.4652451382090.97622766232455865121118DRYL
2020-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2020241-4571.6752.4162.04128.262494666670.01050.08053.123.2005FF39.67208.67148457.9825010687158.7419781007520.98064864960573865121118DRYL
2020-05-27 20:00:01FORECAST2020241-4571.6751.8261.745130.3842920.00660.08663.123.2066FF39.67222.67148458.7345392475859.8117781157430.98064864960573865121118DRYL
2020-05-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020241-4571.6551.9361.79130.393257333330.00580.08583.123.2058FF39.65222.65148458.7377082799559.8163040442510.9805585621263865121118DRYL
2020-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020241-4570.4752.3961.43128.400985333330.00080.08083.123.2008FF38.47221.47148458.0317106730358.811722964330.97457740678788865121118DRYL
2020-05-27 07:59:12FORECAST2020241-4570.9652.4361.695128.0577880.00020.08023.123.2002FF38.96220.96148457.9097313580358.6389073013840.97722562112488865121118DRYL
2020-05-27 04:00:02FORECAST2020241-4570.8452.3661.6127.473897833330.00060.09063.123.2106FF38.84221.84148457.7019604146758.3450529400160.976599517239818651221116DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2020241-4571.9952.8262.405129.454049333330.00180.01183.123.1318FF39.99218.99148458.4053280386659.342425950580.98204259618855865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020241-4572.2352.6262.425130.534409333330.00140.02143.123.1414FF40.23233.23148458.7875926479359.8875674157590.98303113528186865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020241-457252.4662.23130.525061333330.0010.0113.123.131FF40233148458.7842895348459.8828475303050.98208474299253865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:51FORECAST2020241-4572.3551.9262.135129.274725333330.0010.0113.123.131FF40.35232.35148458.3417761202659.2520072167390.98350773976128865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020241-4572.2551.4161.83129.211640.00130.02133.123.1413FF40.25227.25148458.3194119727759.2202028648370.98311137615268865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020241-4571.9851.9761.975128.659077833330.0020.0323.123.152FF39.98230.98148458.1233719746658.9417305721560.98200036503367865121118DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020241-4572.4151.2761.84128.529345333330.00290.06292.822.8829FF40.41233.41148458.0773051137458.8763761383270.98374172168077865121118DRYL
2020-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020241-4572.8651.3962.125129.567885333330.00060.06063.033.0906FF40.86238.86148458.4456561773959.3998342111560.98540778067838865121118DRYL
2020-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020241-4572.7451.2361.985129.502722666670.00040.09043.033.1204FF40.74238.74148458.4225727361559.3669713011890.984978504586238651221116DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020241-4568.151.8659.98128.647025333330.00080.08083.033.1108FF36.1235.1148458.1190928783258.9356585472010.9578930644736865121118DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020241-4567.8752.1360128.470998666670.00130.08133.143.2213FF35.87231.87148458.0565817802258.8469865071440.95588607709697865121124DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020241-4573.4852.3462.91128.491777583330.00240.08243.273.3524FF41.48238.48148458.0639623040758.8574527633160.98746166084977865121118DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020241-4573.7450.6662.2130.7575440.0010.0913.243.331FF41.74231.74148458.8664139429960.0002453112730.98824558475728651221116DRYL
2020-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2020241-4573.4149.6261.515131.618198666670.0010.0513.233.281FF41.41251.41148459.1700181310160.4351306681450.98724303366906865121118DRYL
2020-05-24 15:59:13FORECAST2020241-4572.4450.5361.485131.605570666670.00070.07073.213.2807FF40.44250.44148459.1655682788360.428746643820.98385764443948865121118DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2020241-4572.751.2361.965129.9653520.0010.0613.273.331FF40.7244.7148458.5863734049259.6003394419740.98483302508533865121118DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2020241-4572.751.2561.975129.8357920.0010.0513.373.421FF40.7243.7148458.54052019859.5349716040.98483302508533865121118DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020241-4571.6651.1661.41129.5382960.0010.0513.43.451FF39.66248.66148458.4351748264159.3849113734760.9806036502076865121118DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020241-4570.3649.3959.875129.499865333330.00270.02273.173.1927FF38.36254.36148458.4215604573859.3655303451270.97394880659797865121118DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020241-4570.3649.4159.885130.7646160.00270.02273.133.1527FF38.36265.36148458.8689113641960.0038169888760.97394880659797865121118DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020241-4569.9147.9658.935130.791074666670.00270.01273.153.1627FF37.91262.91148458.8782546363960.0171800650580.97124071909861865121118DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020241-4572.951.4662.18129.628642666670.00190.01193.073.0819FF40.9261.9148458.4671756169659.4304776824460.98554851100796865121118DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020241-4572.9151.4562.18129.7235440.00190.01193.123.1319FF40.91257.91148458.5007817632259.4783463370960.98558351078524865121118DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020241-4573.4751.9462.705129.371789833330.00190.01193.023.0319FF41.47265.47148458.3761790981959.3009467068980.98743062807175865121118DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020241-4567.4745.4556.46124.984219269150.01340.16342.452.6134FF35.47262.47148456.812569162857.0943623091460.9522131563991865122128DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020241-4567.4745.4856.475125.165158666670.01340.16342.562.7234FF35.47261.47148456.8773960827157.1851317719060.9522131563991865122128DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020241-4571.4644.8858.17124.743733333330.00280.13282.672.8028FF39.46266.46148456.7263617974756.9737514823670.979684861329338651221116DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020241-4574.1747.8561.01123.450593333330.00090.05092.662.7109FF42.17280.17148456.2619039541856.325802758540.98944897854044865121118DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020241-4574.1847.8961.035123.610742448750.00090.05092.642.6909FF42.18274.18148456.3195076055256.4059931289650.98947563926855865121118DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020241-4575.5650.0662.81123.20915458090.00060.13062.542.6706FF43.56272.56148456.1750171250256.2049382009030.992636250309728651221116DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020241-4577.7452.8165.275123.054558496510.0030.0232.612.633FF45.74286.74148456.1193544734656.1275657864440.99594465398034865121118DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020241-4577.7652.8365.295122.914827219280.0030.0233.053.073FF45.76293.76148456.0690251182756.0576454224780.99596752958221865121118DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020241-4575.2749.862.535124.167049190770.00220.02222.983.0022FF43.27292.27148456.5194222740856.6846695620490.99205189776637865121118DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020241-4567.5550.2258.885124.9528568106800.042.973.01FF35.55283.55148456.8013295994657.0786311283680.95296663644512865121124DRYL
2020-05-21 08:02:00FORECAST2020241-4554.5950.2552.42126.3729211233300.043.033.07FF22.59265.59148457.309350575657.7915184892520.67087717317062863121123DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020241-4551.2650.1650.71127.3246815744500.063.213.27FF19.26263.26148457.6488139833158.2699895133510.55020337990495863121123DRYL