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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 27, 2020

[ Tuesday, May 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 28, 2020 ]

DAY 240 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/28/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.905
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 209

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 131 in
SWE DAY: 147
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-28 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020240-4662.6500437.4300650.04005130.7953420833300.382.813.19FF30.65004208.65004147458.35047961311 59.9501077750560.9054424992840787 5122128DRYL
2020-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2020240-4552.4652.4652.46131.8881520.00080.38082.813.1908FF20.46198.46148459.2651101033260.5716266496040.6151724387744873112125DRYL
2020-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020240-4565.5452.5659.05132.0029720.00730.38732.813.1973FF33.54211.54148459.3055360755360.6296958180240.94555099607205875122128DRYL
2020-05-27 07:59:12FORECAST2020240-4565.0245.2355.125131.685960.00690.38692.813.1969FF33.02211.02148459.1938934188360.4693886809960.9395444106315875122128DRYL
2020-05-27 04:00:02FORECAST2020240-4565.8141.8853.845131.08228050.01810.39812.813.2081FF33.81211.81148458.9810458320560.1642821939390.94847867716378875122128DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2020240-4667.2740.8954.08133.1572240.00840.31842.813.1284FF35.27208.27147459.1851561236761.1438206914350.96221225535305875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020240-4667.0839.9553.515134.249173333330.00590.32592.813.1359FF35.08222.08147459.5693558150961.6968061075080.96061443274929875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020240-4666.9540.4353.69134.2182320.00190.32192.813.1319FF34.95221.95147459.5584838460661.6811272024190.95948993462339875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:51FORECAST2020240-4666.3242.4754.395132.954721333330.00070.32072.813.1307FF34.32221.32147459.1137888516261.0413458570570.95366726326115875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020240-4666.5842.4454.51132.8699880.00040.33042.813.1404FF34.58215.58147459.0839156985860.9984743698630.95614667577839875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020240-4666.2142.7554.48132.353451166670.00020.34022.813.1502FF34.21220.21147458.9016689742260.7372196348820.95258506434597875122128DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020240-4665.6942.253.945132.1828280.00390.07392.812.8839FF33.69221.69147458.8414164270460.6509560268510.94719326742743875121124DRYL
2020-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020240-4665.7442.554.12133.280790666670.00310.28312.813.0931FF33.74226.74147459.2286862405761.2063623989580.94773190322601875122128DRYL
2020-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020240-4665.9242.2954.105133.215409333330.00330.31332.813.1233FF33.92226.92147459.2056553791861.173269349520.94963506624954875122128DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020240-4666.3742.5454.455132.2170320.00360.30362.813.1136FF34.37228.37147458.8534970561360.6682475035820.95415259315116875122128DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020240-4666.7342.5454.635132.050790666670.00270.41272.813.2227FF34.73224.73147458.794771857460.5842123775030.95752785969877875122128DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020240-4667.0642.954.98132.215561583330.00140.54142.813.3514FF35.06226.06147458.8529777361760.6675041355730.960443099441558751231212DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020240-4667.3543.7755.56134.3683320.00170.52172.813.3317FF35.35219.35147459.6112170494561.7571926034250.962869052372428751231212DRYL
2020-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2020240-4667.843.7255.76135.207666666670.00280.46282.823.2828FF35.8238.8147459.9057222552462.1827795927790.96639227469891875122128DRYL
2020-05-24 15:59:13FORECAST2020240-4667.5443.8355.685135.1844880.00750.45752.823.2775FF35.54238.54147459.8975977667362.1710212865260.96439171419397875122128DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2020240-4665.145.7555.425133.663825333330.00320.51322.823.3332FF33.1233.1147459.363535070161.4002873161120.940500753924818751231212DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2020240-4665.1145.4555.28133.536397333330.0020.5922.833.422FF33.11232.11147459.3186881141361.3357628386340.940619461245838751231212DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020240-4669.846.4258.11133.149138666670.0020.6222.833.452TF37.8237.8147459.1823073428161.1397287136680.978892782068838751231124DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020240-4668.8645.3957.125132.8932440.00040.37042.823.1904FF36.86244.86147459.0921153558261.0102405044570.973616637484198751221116DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020240-4668.8844.8156.845134.159962666670.00040.32042.833.1504FF36.88255.88147459.5380072182761.6516018923180.973739398647758751221116DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020240-4667.144656.57134.103437333330.00060.33062.833.1606FF35.14254.14147459.5181405594261.622962166040.96112482393611875122128DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020240-4667.9846.3857.18133.3392520.00230.25232.833.0823FF35.98249.98147459.2492762629561.2359549784430.9677225063907875122128DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020240-4667.9946.3957.19133.436121333330.00230.29232.843.1323FF35.99245.99147459.2833868144261.2849937293530.9677951192529875122128DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020240-4668.546.7157.605133.150677833330.00230.19232.843.0323FF36.5252.5147459.1828496562661.1405076811720.971323878009468751221116DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020240-4661.3644.4652.91127.929823269150.03120.30122.32.6012FF29.36256.36147457.33107457458.5062835457420.88177161093992875122128DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020240-4661.3744.4852.925128.1133320.03120.41122.32.7112FF29.37255.37147457.3965801940958.598599934070.8819698671926875122128DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020240-4661.444.4852.94127.939546666670.02950.48952.312.7995FF29.4256.4147457.3345462222958.5111745186850.8825632290046875122128DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020240-4664.9245.1855.05127.095657333330.03450.41452.32.7145FF32.92266.92147457.0329239921558.0868998977570.9383321740121875122128DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020240-4664.9245.2155.065127.258047782080.03450.35452.342.6945FF32.92260.92147457.0910156986558.1685103165380.9383321740121875122128DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020240-4669.394456.695127.05315058090.00190.29192.382.6719FF37.39258.39147457.0177141541958.0655404545730.976712459554278751221116DRYL
2020-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2020240-4670.4645.5458127.135042496510.00140.13142.52.6314FF38.46270.46147457.0470153921458.1066917247820.982039848335278751221116DRYL
2020-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020240-4670.4745.5458.005126.370088552620.00140.13142.943.0714FF38.47277.47147456.7730743899157.7224538591040.982084279295878751221116DRYL
2020-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2020240-4669.244.8157.005126.517114524110.00130.05132.953.0013FF37.2278.2147456.8257678315157.7962779863010.97563966596463875121118DRYL
2020-05-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020240-4669.4846.2357.855126.4754328106800.052.963.01FF37.48277.48147456.8108312929257.7753476003780.97720661162169875121118DRYL
2020-05-21 08:02:00FORECAST2020240-4669.4846.2457.86127.2352877900.053.023.07FF37.48272.48147457.0828752424858.1570711753570.97720661162169875121118DRYL
2020-05-21 04:00:07FORECAST2020240-4669.9845.1257.55127.7330415744500.153.123.27FF37.98272.98147457.2607970781558.4073124035510.979794103251628751221116DRYL
2020-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2020240-4663.8536.5350.19130.269311564580.00050.02052.852.8705FF31.85252.85147458.1639004362559.6846958935740.92414955625506875121124DRYL
2020-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020240-4663.8936.5550.22131.141620698270.00030.02032.932.9503FF31.89270.89147458.4731661080660.1249140500780.92472086096381875121124DRYL
2020-05-20 15:56:22FORECAST2020240-4664.3239.3251.82131.146102192860.00030.03032.832.8603FF32.32275.32147458.4747531941560.1271768352470.93065754537821875121124DRYL
2020-05-20 12:00:01FORECAST2020240-4648.8633.741.28132.374435400420.00150.29152.913.2015FF16.86246.86147458.909077381460.7478300184890.47310649133309872122125DRYL
2020-05-20 08:01:58FORECAST2020240-4635.8133.7234.765132.839119018420.00150.29152.963.2515FF3.81229.81147459.0730310895560.9828570150510.084692017115678871122124DRYL
2020-05-20 04:00:05FORECAST2020240-4636.7435.0835.91132.889817910240.00020.34022.943.2802FF4.74235.74147459.0909074071561.0085070895810.10010867321587871122124DRYL