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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 29, 2020

[ Thursday, May 28, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 30, 2020 ]

DAY 242 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/30/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.646
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 83 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 222

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 149
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2020242-4355.3255.3255.32124.872517333330.00160.00163.13.1016FF23.32222.32150457.8410370341457.1717628329570.64551804318183833121123DRYL
2020-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020242-4372.3355.4563.89124.646709333330.0240.0243.13.124FF40.33239.33150457.7606828495357.0583627793740.9632979922956835121118DRYL
2020-05-29 07:55:41FORECAST2020242-4372.395563.695124.0481640.02650.02653.13.1265FF40.39239.39150457.5474662883756.7579231359240.96369890840203835121118DRYL
2020-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2020242-4372.5353.9763.25123.791589916670.02090.02093.13.1209FF40.53239.53150457.4559689876956.6292017178550.96462048985624835121118DRYL
2020-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2020242-4473.6553.2563.45125.0141440.02340.02343.13.1234FF41.65224.65149457.3583668469757.1762647326120.97132454255984835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2020242-4473.6851.1462.41127.1765040.02020.04023.13.1402FF41.68241.68149458.1281609842158.2631378979210.97148851526037835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020242-4473.850.0861.94127.143758666670.01190.03193.13.1319FF41.8241.8149458.1165352370758.2466581973920.97213664598962835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020242-4473.4351.7962.61124.931453333330.00470.02473.13.1247FF41.43241.43149457.328845184257.1347572801170.97009802960563835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2020242-4473.2451.862.52124.5144013333300.013.13.11FF41.24237.24149457.1798575635456.9254762661830.96900414270633835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020242-4473.3851.7862.58123.745638083330.00070.01073.13.1107FF41.38241.38149456.9048107105656.5399773447230.96981330740469835121118DRYL
2020-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2020242-4472.8451.1962.015124.499514666670.00150.01153.13.1115FF40.84230.84149457.1745365341556.918007916460.96659314032037835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 20:00:01FORECAST2020242-4473.2952.0762.68126.555493333330.00210.02213.13.1221FF41.29245.29149457.9075155110657.9507115265440.96929516093057835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2020242-4469.9452.3261.13126.603873333330.00420.02423.13.1242FF37.94241.94149457.9247174585657.9750429253260.94416568801651835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020242-4473.9252.6363.275124.4696320.00490.01493.13.1149FF41.92243.92149457.163854788456.9030167692140.9727724881098835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 07:59:12FORECAST2020242-4473.9352.2763.1124.137969333330.00540.01543.13.1154FF41.93243.93149457.0452454457356.7366686630880.97282492557432835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 04:00:02FORECAST2020242-4473.7451.9662.85123.572447166670.00370.02373.13.1237FF41.74244.74149456.8427725874956.4531793790410.97181412731799835121118DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2020242-4473.9552.1163.03125.5517240.00270.01273.033.0427FF41.95241.95149457.5501389120157.4462087568420.97292954841205835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020242-4474.9252.9563.935126.516081333330.00220.01223.043.0522FF42.92256.92149457.8935006547457.9308913708390.97761576579241835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020242-4474.0652.8163.435126.563969333330.00250.00253.043.0425FF42.06256.06149457.9105293824257.9549741981670.97349899841765835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:51FORECAST2020242-4474.1251.862.96125.455165333330.00110.00113.043.0411FF42.12255.12149457.5157126220557.3977093695970.97380537666361835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020242-4468.3552.8560.6125.477961333330.00150.00153.053.0515FF36.35244.35149457.5238408952757.4091588169350.9275914613955835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020242-4473.8453.1563.495124.7621645003.063.06FF41.84253.84149457.2683874848557.0497937800340.9723499503832835121118DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020242-4474.150.6562.375124.713120.00960.00962.792.7996FF42.1256.1149457.2508674875257.0251823070760.97370358046767835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020242-4474.1149.9662.035125.783530666670.00020.000233.0002FF42.11262.11149457.6327510340757.5626631737660.97375451972048835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020242-4473.2250.8762.045125.805069333330.00060.00063.033.0306FF41.22261.22149457.6404245947557.5734853458790.96888709987095835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020242-4475.0952.663.845124.771869333330.00550.00553.023.0255FF43.09259.09149457.2718540502857.0546640233720.97836233641905835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020242-4475.152.6363.865124.592617333330.00550.00553.133.1355FF43.1256.1149457.2078114659956.9647178957920.97840559074638835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020242-4474.8252.0663.44124.659972250.00790.00793.263.2679FF42.82261.82149457.2318792361656.9985133773950.97716656555787835121118DRYL
2020-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020242-4468.3450.9159.625127.212574666670.00650.00653.243.2465FF36.34249.34149458.1409662226758.281291873460.92747646438262835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2020242-4472.6351.3261.975127.9333920.00520.00523.193.1952FF40.63272.63149458.3966135863958.644233657420.9652669791292835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 15:59:13FORECAST2020242-4471.3151.1961.25128.031354666670.03480.04483.183.2248FF39.31270.31149458.4313212224558.693583077740.95591310985208835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2020242-4473.1351.5162.32126.301154666670.03530.03533.243.2753FF41.13267.13149457.817048317757.822821828610.9683558864636835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2020242-4473.1351.5462.335126.169462666670.03530.03533.333.3653FF41.13266.13149457.7701830576357.7566180212030.9683558864636835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 03:56:10FORECAST2020242-4471.2151.3161.26126.009398666670.00160.00163.363.3616FF39.21269.21149457.713199937757.6761650859460.95512896906903835121118DRYL
2020-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020242-4471.749.8760.785126.056138666670.00580.00583.13.1058FF39.7274.7149457.7298418706557.6996564187180.9588666066359835121118DRYL
2020-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2020242-4471.749.8660.78127.3184840.00580.00583.063.0658FF39.7285.7149458.1785577028858.3345993680380.9588666066359835121118DRYL
2020-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2020242-4468.0349.758.865127.365005333330.00080.00083.073.0708FF36.03280.03149458.1950667980658.3580171264420.92384199426697835121118DRYL
2020-05-23 11:56:01FORECAST2020242-4472.5653.3462.95125.857626666670.06740.06742.993.0574FF40.56283.56149457.6591473849357.5998941121580.96481546162069835121118DRYL
2020-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020242-4472.5653.3762.965125.950560.06740.06743.043.1074FF40.56279.56149457.6922474248957.6465948708230.96481546162069835121118DRYL
2020-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020242-4472.2853.1862.73125.563381833330.02270.02272.942.9627FF40.28286.28149457.5542947357157.4520646193820.96296114391596835121118DRYL
2020-05-22 23:56:21FORECAST2020242-4470.5350.3960.46121.436297935810.00110.04112.482.5211FF38.53281.53149456.0753415080155.3841010525450.94949580961619835121118DRYL
2020-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020242-4470.5350.4460.485122.132361333330.00110.04112.592.6311FF38.53280.53149456.3258661211255.7321555668510.94949580961619835121118DRYL
2020-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020242-4474.1551.2862.715122.240820.00220.03222.682.7122FF42.15289.15149456.364862301655.7864149869350.97395745460496835121118DRYL
2020-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020242-4471.1756.4363.8121.598322666670.00040.03042.592.6204FF39.17300.17149456.133696418855.4650923962730.95481219552353835121118DRYL
2020-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2020242-4458.8156.4657.635122.4967997820800.032.572.6FF26.81281.81149456.4568569310455.9145042126380.7465278666718834121123.5DRYL
2020-05-22 03:59:14FORECAST2020242-4456.755.0755.885122.68807191424002.582.58FF24.7278.7149456.5255577353356.010240458120.68724425574901833121123DRYL