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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 1, 2020

[ Tuesday, March 31, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 2, 2020 ]

DAY 184 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2020 09:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.281
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 86

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 204 in
SWE DAY: 91
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 92.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-31 09:00:02FORECAST2020184-10232.7421.2226.98204.375442971040.45191.71192.794.5019TF0.7485.7491454.6879975699292.927060916970.281097373536029021151210WETL
2020-03-31 05:00:34FORECAST2020184-10232.5423.5528.045206.350559740880.77852.11852.794.9085TF0.5480.5491455.404663868593.9730072978730.273186830434489021151210WETL
2020-03-31 01:00:02FORECAST2020184-10232.4523.4527.95206.731670268170.73582.20582.794.9958TF0.4585.4591455.5425355670494.1750692559710.269663382453449021151210WETL
2020-03-30 21:00:01FORECAST2020184-10232.3822.8127.595203.247445036850.45322.05322.794.8432TF0.3885.3891454.2770903819492.3306579589010.266938730928579021151210WETL
2020-03-30 16:59:49FORECAST2020184-10232.6321.9327.28202.799201146770.39741.95742.794.7474TF0.6385.6391454.1134769064792.0938503466120.276732911905369021151210WETL
2020-03-30 13:00:01FORECAST2020184-10233.0223.2928.155203.12205780690.41092.06092.794.8509TF1.0286.0291454.2313415610792.2644048182750.292354412774739021151210WETL
2020-03-30 09:28:45FORECAST2020184-10233.7422.9128.325206.789222684350.32842.10842.794.8984TF1.7487.7491455.563344306894.2055898526860.322220768060749021151210WETL
2020-03-30 09:00:34FORECAST2020184-10233.7721.1327.45200.688922903450.35542.07542.794.8654TF1.7787.7791453.3406965528290.9804560994840.323492300554459021151210WETL
2020-03-30 05:00:02FORECAST2020184-10233.4921.4227.455202.687179054140.38312.58312.795.3731TF1.4989.4991454.0725586266792.0346859939360.311706553804039021151210WETL
2020-03-30 01:00:03FORECAST2020184-10233.523.8728.685203.983396371370.36312.98312.795.7731TT1.590.591454.545316263292.7196974160680.312124265764369021151210WETL
2020-03-29 21:00:02FORECAST2020184-10233.4223.7728.595201.943272317010.62942.91942.795.7094TT1.4290.4291453.8005364368391.6419653072660.308789368489379021151210WETL
2020-03-29 16:59:07FORECAST2020184-10233.6522.5728.11201.471899976640.51272.82272.795.6127TT1.6590.6591453.6279048792891.393275878450.318418673473919021151210WETL
2020-03-29 13:00:02FORECAST2020184-10233.522.5328.015201.685782458430.46562.85562.795.6456TT1.590.591453.7062610687591.5061022699410.312124265764369021151210WETL
2020-03-29 09:00:02FORECAST2020184-10227.7422.8325.285203.607725849970.54892.83892.795.6289TT-4.2683.7491454.4084614928592.5210734515420.12094023447571901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 05:00:02FORECAST2020184-10232.6521.1426.895204.175593165440.37932.81933.065.8793TT0.6584.6591454.6152820528692.8213448752190.277523978015419021151210WETL
2020-03-29 01:00:01FORECAST2020184-10234.0821.5927.835204.134217059690.34142.81143.075.8814TT2.0883.0891454.6002227098992.7994605380430.336749938588919021151210WETL
2020-03-28 20:59:52FORECAST2020184-10234.4620.6727.565204.370874728050.31042.89043.246.1304TT2.4681.4691454.6863358231292.9246441790630.353280607374629021151210WETL
2020-03-28 16:59:06FORECAST2020184-10234.4220.4427.43202.39338488940.19572.56573.245.8057TT2.4291.4291453.9651891860891.8795512613260.351526785829879021151210WETL
2020-03-28 13:00:02FORECAST2020184-10234.4820.4627.47202.33498460290.19572.47573.325.7957TT2.4888.4891453.9438367836191.8487192261960.354158690168429021151210WETL
2020-03-28 09:00:02FORECAST2020184-10240.8524.0932.47202.65002502370.05612.19613.295.4861TF8.8592.8591454.0589848125992.0150646345090.647302741562539031151212.5WETL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020184-10242.9624.9233.94202.925881963230.01982.06983.495.5598TF10.9698.9691454.1597355488892.1607648884440.734739552957349041151215WETL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020184-10242.9924.9433.965195.272061329840.01981.97983.545.5198TF10.99101.9991451.3379840079788.133698493690.735899278873639041151215WETL
2020-03-27 21:00:02FORECAST2020184-10237.9122.630.255194.318574345010.01831.84833.675.5183TF5.9196.9191450.9826016032287.6342961979420.51232342082119031151212.5WETL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020184-10235.0919.9527.52194.17690455150.10342.08343.615.6934TT3.09101.0991450.9297251461987.5601381991460.381292557248719021151210WETL
2020-03-27 13:00:02FORECAST2020184-10235.1419.9827.56195.01278293880.10342.14343.565.7034TT3.1499.1491451.2414312944687.997847294020.383544846941019021151210WETL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020184-10231.5321.8726.7198.214378244160.0632.4033.656.053TT-0.4792.5391452.4292302452689.6779785725460.2349988284579901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020184-10234.8622.2328.545199.982588892850.0652.6353.596.225TT2.8695.8691453.0811115957390.6083336753630.370984793178729021151210WETL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020184-10235.7223.0429.38199.085067429730.06292.77293.626.3929TT3.72100.7291452.7505907199690.1358818823320.409940608277219021151210WETL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020184-10236.2922.929.595188.739338670780.06633.36633.727.0863TT4.29109.2991448.8857749102684.7224042952810.436285874744819021151210WETL
2020-03-26 17:00:03FORECAST2020184-10233.1821.3727.275191.320540424430.24873.57873.777.3487TT1.1893.1891449.8595541299286.0673730112310.298879626794489021151210WETL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020184-10233.2221.3927.305190.792831188950.24873.57873.97.4787TT1.22100.2291449.6609904153985.7920934365810.300521200820849021151210WETL
2020-03-26 09:00:02FORECAST2020184-10236.2325.9331.08183.519280163080.3651.6053.745.345TF4.23114.2391446.8968465458982.0141875852530.433497203870549021151210WETL
2020-03-26 05:00:02FORECAST2020184-10235.9425.0930.515183.099236324040.58971.96973.635.5997TF3.94110.9491446.735653593481.7969570116710.420067677931349021151210WETL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020184-1023625.1230.56182.57247242190.58971.96973.55.4697TF411691446.533263307281.5246819006160.422839115039549021151210WETL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020184-10237.721.6329.665194.804980740130.26243.67243.677.3424TT5.795.791451.1640018904587.888994698910.502432966531919031151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020184-10237.6421.5329.585197.728205870420.41193.98193.77.6819TT5.6495.6491452.2494806553389.4224784158060.499606581760359031151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020184-10227.6219.0623.34205.438395315240.3253.8953.687.575TT-4.3873.6291455.0741340062893.4896998397250.11811007443513901115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020184-10233.5631.9232.74188.962693224960.26372.18373.595.7737TT1.5696.5691448.9702897692584.838635132790.314635593104849021151210WETL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020184-10238.5136.437.455190.894462431370.0092.2793.846.119TT6.5197.5191449.6992523920385.8450970411670.540519462861999031151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020184-10238.5138.5138.51190.3688080086202.273.786.05TT6.51100.5191449.5012481963585.5710168175250.540519462861999031151212.5WETL