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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 31, 2020

[ Monday, March 30, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 1, 2020 ]

DAY 183 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2020 09:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.193
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 202 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 91.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-31 09:00:02FORECAST2020183-10230.722.6726.685202.244343156350.50091.86092.224.0809TF-1.381.791453.910690045191.8008693598190.192821004867891115127.5WETL
2020-03-31 05:00:34FORECAST2020183-10225.6823.3924.535202.723175101210.57641.93642.224.1564TF-6.3276.6891454.0857081626892.053696526820.078781101845533891115127.5WETL
2020-03-31 01:00:02FORECAST2020183-10330.8123.727.255203.265462014220.71032.07032.224.2903TF-1.1981.8190453.7368825586292.2290370661680.1961100458029891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 21:00:01FORECAST2020183-10330.9820.1125.545200.999687323910.84382.20382.224.4238TF-1.0281.9890452.9048220702991.0337276236220.20125939991013891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 16:59:49FORECAST2020183-10331.1421.6426.39200.807820313820.80472.16472.224.3847TF-0.8682.1490452.8341425793290.932637135030.20617898813842891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 13:00:01FORECAST2020183-10331.3423.7227.53201.090663308990.88512.24512.224.4651TF-0.6682.3490452.9383235404291.0816679188040.21242748054871891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 09:28:45FORECAST2020183-10331.632327.315205.179627631391.02092.38092.224.6009TF-0.3782.6390454.4360996811593.2410297148410.22168120228916891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 09:00:34FORECAST2020183-10332.2623.2827.77198.90566719671.02482.32482.224.5448TF0.2683.2690452.131565525389.9315307014980.24255635146541891115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 05:00:02FORECAST2020183-10332.4824.6628.57200.805333897921.06132.80132.225.0213TF0.4885.4890452.8332264135390.9313272300410.250088867542188921151210WETL
2020-03-30 01:00:03FORECAST2020183-10332.3924.7228.555202.120256466541.09933.21932.225.4393TT0.3986.3990453.316927206391.6245335875630.24699248894855891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 21:00:02FORECAST2020183-10331.7224.0827.9198.75138661010.71352.89352.225.1135TF-0.2885.7290452.074431662989.8504201439750.2245991210083891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 16:59:07FORECAST2020183-10331.7923.7627.775198.64078664870.76262.91262.225.1326TF-0.2185.7990452.0334600205589.7922820900150.22688357099424891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 13:00:02FORECAST2020183-10332.0623.6427.85199.059608528580.86362.99362.225.2136TF0.06000000000000286.0690452.1885514423790.0124760312250.23581650463437891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 09:00:02FORECAST2020183-10330.9423.627.27200.365300328040.79562.88562.225.1056TF-1.0684.9490452.6709967739490.6995602184060.20004056578736891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 05:00:02FORECAST2020183-10330.9723.927.435202.027853617570.94793.30792.225.5279TT-1.0380.9790453.2829891086591.5757893709790.20095427558799891115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 01:00:01FORECAST2020183-10328.4824.0326.255202.171006819670.88743.34742.225.5674TT-3.5278.4890453.3355636157891.6513073233670.13376234658489891115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 20:59:52FORECAST2020183-10328.0323.4725.75202.471219776290.87993.62992.225.8499TT-3.9776.0390453.4457578934791.8097157030760.12349323815657891115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 16:59:06FORECAST2020183-10333.423.8228.61201.316801115590.71193.42192.225.6419TT1.486.490453.0215641733591.2008521357630.282882571163898921151210WETL
2020-03-28 13:00:02FORECAST2020183-10333.5923.7128.65201.24217888790.593.412.225.63TT1.5982.5990452.9941012456491.1615199580380.289903482419118921151210WETL
2020-03-28 09:00:02FORECAST2020183-10331.6124.6228.115202.681367922730.51923.23922.225.4592TT-0.3980.6190453.5228435680991.9206303185880.22103572464269891115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020183-10334.5523.0428.795203.106587908350.4023.1822.395.572TT2.5584.5590453.6786952015392.1451317890960.326564326365878921151210WETL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020183-10334.6124.6129.61195.452549909410.41353.08352.455.5335TT2.6187.6190450.8474192140888.119277705470.328917296286778921151210WETL
2020-03-27 21:00:02FORECAST2020183-10334.7723.0528.91194.36285455910.30333.02332.515.5333TT2.7787.7790450.4398394349287.5487729997140.335224882448128921151210WETL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020183-10333.9623.8828.92193.653704691340.43443.12442.55.6244TT1.9694.9690450.173988838887.1778606943120.303805095433828921151210WETL
2020-03-27 13:00:02FORECAST2020183-10334.0223.9228.97194.480024906950.43443.08442.555.6344TT2.0293.0290450.4837189191587.6100848755730.306087127894098921151210WETL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020183-10335.2621.928.58197.796535288260.48343.44342.586.0234TT3.2690.2690451.7203284180489.3487158803640.354826022220228921151210WETL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020183-10334.0322.4728.25199.618421648580.63583.62582.566.1858TT2.0390.0390452.395225424490.3064208605720.306468201975698921151210WETL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020183-10334.9523.3929.17198.754462907120.5793.8392.526.359TT2.9593.9590452.0755711094689.8520373292920.34237674790438921151210WETL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020183-10336.0625.730.88188.675759807821.26584.47582.577.0458TT4.06102.0690448.2942856853684.582264969190.387647655224518921151210WETL
2020-03-26 17:00:03FORECAST2020183-10334.6423.8629.25189.89101071821.48624.46622.667.1262TT2.6488.6490448.7553672409585.2146102506010.33009633432588921151210WETL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020183-10334.723.8929.295189.320074559581.48624.52622.737.2562TT2.795.790448.5389240965584.9174225528330.332459466282068921151210WETL
2020-03-26 09:00:02FORECAST2020183-10341.9828.9635.47182.833321650480.53742.19742.815.0074TF9.98106.9890446.0576130322581.5541950381720.639589870617098931151212.5WETL
2020-03-26 05:00:02FORECAST2020183-10342.629.4536.025181.8737961390.71452.15452.895.0445TF10.6103.690445.6870922241581.0588033529590.664467294021338931151212.5WETL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020183-10342.6829.4936.085181.272099781950.71452.10452.814.9145TF10.68108.6890445.4542860512780.7484337893840.667628176632758931151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020183-10332.5622.627.58193.509797420181.1324.3722.747.112TT0.5686.5690450.1199814971587.1026264342890.252858370102558921151210WETL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020183-10326.9622.5124.735195.518969096710.93124.60122.77.3012TT-5.0486.9690450.8722255883388.154072741370.10132216693849891115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020183-10324.1619.922.03201.634857840210.93124.60122.687.2812TT-7.8475.1690453.1385589933891.3685289245470.057189120382414891115127.5WETL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020183-10342.230.2536.225189.006207891630.42362.93362.615.5436TT10.292.290448.4198027832684.7541264675780.648491726192158931151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020183-10340.3831.9236.15191.035010431370.58643.47642.666.1364TT8.3888.3890449.1881166031685.8106565409340.572847142379858931151212.5WETL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020183-10340.3831.9236.15190.404396008620.58643.47642.66.0764TT8.3891.3890448.9497248902985.482001205970.572847142379858931151212.5WETL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020183-10337.421.9629.68194.872284777570.19123.03122.75.7312TT5.478.490450.6305225218687.8153995143470.444348727999328921151210WETL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020183-10341.1226.5733.845188.916600133310.2232.3732.494.863TF9.1291.1290448.3857766642984.7075164755510.604102238386878931151212.5WETL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020183-10335.4832.9934.235183.205588102260.40553.07552.65.6755TT3.4894.4890446.2011207738381.7465387432590.363756906153368921151210WETL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020183-10329.426.8428.12189.19360452890.24983.35982.275.6298TT-2.681.490448.4909365517284.8516168847640.15653718241293891115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020183-10329.426.8428.12198.047451360210.19253.30252.25.5025TT-2.681.490451.8134629619589.4805048298450.15653718241293891115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020183-10327.9227.3127.615201.641466652220.1623.1722.255.422TT-4.0877.9290453.1409889939191.3720136209670.12106905672989891115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020183-10327.3127.3127.31201.676627451860.05733.06732.355.4173TT-4.6981.3190453.1539166167891.3905536198750.10823144044801891115127.5WETL