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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 30, 2020

[ Sunday, March 29, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 31, 2020 ]

DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/30/2020 09:28:45 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.136
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.76 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.93 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 200 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 90.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-30 09:28:45FORECAST2020182-10327.5624.4426200.457112936360.76431.93432.124.0543TF-4.4482.5690452.7048608132990.747909410890.13599983544846901115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 09:00:34FORECAST2020182-10327.7925.226.495194.133066119740.7031.8732.123.993TF-4.2182.7990450.3537473269787.4285538071010.14121614636434901115127.5DRYL
2020-03-30 05:00:02FORECAST2020182-10330.225.327.75195.829104786561.14452.31452.124.4345TF-1.885.290450.988000324988.3165763731070.20392131851468901115127.5WETL
2020-03-30 01:00:03FORECAST2020182-10431.3925.3728.38196.982170567631.52172.69172.124.8117TF-0.6186.3989450.8599529230888.811372148810.24019047989053901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 21:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.224.6727.935195.362614135141.58062.75062.124.8706TF-0.886.289450.2538323654887.9627657152830.23417429922768901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 16:59:07FORECAST2020182-10431.3424.728.02194.963748676661.54972.71972.124.8397TF-0.6686.3489450.1041735381287.7539969680020.23859916788382901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 13:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.3424.8828.11194.900417324731.53452.70452.124.8245TF-0.6686.3489450.0803969476787.720857194780.23859916788382901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 09:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.3225.0628.19196.423703778751.48552.65552.124.7755TF-0.6886.3289450.6512277825588.5185832734880.23796425983273901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 05:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.0524.9928.02197.316319588071.49062.93062.125.0506TF-0.9582.0589450.9846985281488.986640904110.22948413663755901115127.5WETL
2020-03-29 01:00:01FORECAST2020182-10431.0324.8527.94197.681930679571.57823.02822.125.1482TF-0.9782.0389451.1210684121289.1784837739380.22886277665688901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 20:59:52FORECAST2020182-10430.0224.9327.475197.67956396121.70093.32092.125.4409TT-1.9880.0289451.120186053189.1772416730720.19873376530357901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 16:59:06FORECAST2020182-10429.5425.0327.285197.518397581361.66163.28162.125.4016TT-2.4684.5489451.0600875859489.0926657128850.18529369944513901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 13:00:02FORECAST2020182-10429.8425.0427.44198.13157418461.68693.38692.125.5069TT-2.1680.8489451.288608131789.4145223407130.19362642896082901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 09:00:02FORECAST2020182-10429.5625.0727.315199.859707655071.61933.28932.125.4093TT-2.4480.5689451.930742485290.3227460734290.18584220474918901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020182-10429.6825.1827.43200.869958481871.64553.51552.125.6355TT-2.3281.6889452.3048248555790.8544513898870.18915429515877901115127.5WETL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020182-10429.4625.0227.24193.241946727941.55273.592725.5927TT-2.5485.4689449.4563912117386.8538280070670.18310972323505901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 21:00:02FORECAST2020182-10429.1524.6626.905192.749478934991.5343.70425.704TT-2.8585.1589449.2705916417286.5966724397570.17479903955712901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020182-10432.3325.3328.83191.268154353041.54893.658925.6589TT0.3393.3389448.7103105294685.8239929341520.271153633223369021151210WETL
2020-03-27 13:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.1425.1128.125192.058821361221.61273.672725.6727TT-0.8691.1489449.0096266596186.2362596760860.23229190402987901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.6527.0529.35195.076601957611.864.0126.01TT-0.3586.6589450.1465327463287.8130559911530.24855762860186901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.6227.0929.355195.907705639851.92673.98672.036.0167TT-0.3887.6289450.4581118231588.2482151741310.24758434061433901115127.5WETL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020182-10435.4227.331.36195.389688746562.12614.20612.046.2461TT3.4291.4289450.263985571487.976939994580.384914240036979021151210WETL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020182-1043627.4731.735186.56036895542.02934.19932.056.2493TT49889446.9156249657683.3767438855430.407822032399939021151210WETL
2020-03-26 17:00:03FORECAST2020182-10431.5127.1329.32186.081722247981.84313.99312.126.1131TT-0.4985.5189446.7319521752183.1286510439650.24403307880467901115127.5WETL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020182-10431.5427.1629.35185.446766088251.84314.11312.136.2431TT-0.4692.5489446.4879533577182.7997470475510.24499887570789901115127.5WETL
2020-03-26 09:00:02FORECAST2020182-10437.5327.532.515183.168865650480.69652.75652.184.9365TF5.5396.5389445.6093641274181.6217617504510.469577641058049021151210WETL
2020-03-26 05:00:02FORECAST2020182-10437.5628.6733.115182.235962805670.6682.5682.234.798TF5.5692.5689445.2480724295981.1402111665740.470800917756519021151210WETL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020182-10437.6128.7233.165181.638639781950.6682.5082.164.668TF5.6197.6189445.0162930683580.8321541537430.472840318962129021151210WETL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.9726.7729.37187.531539260812.27824.28822.166.4482TT-0.03000000000000185.9789447.2876100914883.8805340127460.259064761693699021151210WETL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020182-10435.6826.831.24189.516411168172.63554.67552.166.8355TT3.6891.6889448.0450228169384.9118847660280.395138835109799021151210WETL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020182-10432.1424.7828.46193.686938471192.63554.50552.316.8155TT0.1483.1489449.6240791246587.0863113485830.264738530788019021151210WETL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020182-10433.6425.3729.505189.370123891631.50213.32212.275.5921TT1.6481.6489447.9893309045884.8357950955290.317376809536479021151210WETL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020182-10432.1625.7228.94191.405541098041.68333.58332.446.0233TT0.1680.1689448.7623630287585.8956029199530.2654101577069021151210WETL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020182-10432.1625.7228.94190.774926675281.68333.50332.465.9633TT0.1683.1689448.5232888141185.5669975356680.2654101577069021151210WETL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020182-10426.4121.3823.895194.150047304731.23263.33262.686.0126TT-5.5973.4189449.7983930195987.3283792823450.11189991393663901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020182-10430.7126.4128.56188.896000806231.16832.45832.655.1083TF-1.2981.7189447.8086888384884.5892704478690.21905013638486901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020182-10434.6830.6732.675183.35198543561.58153.09152.655.7415TT2.6890.6889445.6801817250881.7163461885910.356269825391819021151210WETL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020182-10431.526.5229.01188.285120489211.95473.53472.325.8547TT-0.584.589447.5756209845484.2718297251060.24371160275897901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020182-10431.526.5229.01197.453008711041.95473.53472.255.7847TT-0.584.589451.0356972527189.058355458630.24371160275897901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020182-10431.1927.2829.235200.75538880361.73733.57732.155.7273TT-0.8182.1989452.2624494774890.7941238861180.23385998235135901115127.5WETL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020182-10431.1927.2829.235201.319927451861.73733.57732.255.8273TT-0.8186.1989452.471133608591.0914557921250.23385998235135901115127.5WETL
2020-03-23 21:00:02FORECAST2020182-10444.0829.7236.9192.495408376540.19272.27272.254.5227TF12.0896.0889449.1746442995386.4640565868270.724089243108249041151215WETL
2020-03-23 16:59:25FORECAST2020182-10443.0733.1338.1192.11691460170.17752.34752.484.8275TF11.0799.0789449.0315948304386.2665645575010.688464755697449031151212.5WETL
2020-03-23 13:00:02FORECAST2020182-10438.5133.0235.765190.892788429810.17232.59232.615.2023TF6.5188.5189448.5680008562985.6283964838420.509619478933519031151212.5WETL
2020-03-23 09:00:03FORECAST2020182-10432.9529.931.425191.776356888670.00591.71592.994.7059TF0.9585.9589448.9027654783486.0889369606830.292610772658469021151210WETL
2020-03-23 04:59:30FORECAST2020182-10436.6432.4934.5656.88941377133490.0040.7742.843.614TF4.6498.6489359.597570059372.47741645130560.433467332959679021134224DRYL
2020-03-23 01:00:03FORECAST2020182-10432.4932.4932.49190.545311137660.00140.77142.793.5614TF0.4994.4989448.4361434007885.4474044696740.27661521343544902113126DRYL