Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 2, 2020
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Friday, April 3, 2020 ]
DAY 185
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/03/2020 05:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.48°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.139
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 75
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.42 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 211 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 96.57 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -101
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2020-04-03 04:58:53 | OBSERVATION | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 28.20002 | 16.75004 | 22.47503 | 211.15279291667 | 0.21999999999997 | 0.87999999999997 | 3.54 | 4.42 | T | F | -3.79998 | 75.20002 | 92 | 457.66612030581 | 96.637479525908 | 0.13904152497916 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-02 09:57:18 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -100 | 33.32 | 22.08 | 27.7 | 214.58686163873 | 0.1435 | 0.8035 | 3.54 | 4.3435 | T | F | 1.32 | 80.32 | 93 | 459.41125435418 | 98.583619273374 | 0.31236356929386 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-02 09:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -100 | 33.3 | 19.81 | 26.555 | 203.63625346969 | 0.1535 | 0.8135 | 3.54 | 4.3535 | T | F | 1.3 | 80.3 | 93 | 455.50518195246 | 92.757368688827 | 0.3115409794518 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-02 05:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -100 | 27.69 | 17.45 | 22.57 | 204.00467053871 | 0.2129 | 0.8729 | 3.54 | 4.4129 | T | F | -4.31 | 74.69 | 93 | 455.63836975657 | 92.952355506983 | 0.12631291465972 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-02 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.94 | 19.66 | 26.3 | 203.96857677273 | 0.2091 | 0.8691 | 3.54 | 4.4091 | T | F | 0.94 | 79.94 | 92 | 455.08365459001 | 92.822765339259 | 0.29689808862154 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 28.33 | 18.87 | 23.6 | 202.86899689552 | 0.176 | 0.836 | 3.54 | 4.376 | T | F | -3.67 | 75.33 | 92 | 454.68422058542 | 92.241331734383 | 0.14242004038795 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 17:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.91 | 18.97 | 25.94 | 202.7920865424 | 0.1713 | 0.8313 | 3.54 | 4.3713 | T | F | 0.91 | 79.91 | 92 | 454.65624032104 | 92.200687634226 | 0.29569217378952 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 12:59:48 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.14 | 20.36 | 26.75 | 203.50752367075 | 0.1991 | 0.8591 | 3.54 | 4.3991 | T | F | 1.14 | 80.14 | 92 | 454.91630798701 | 92.578891315874 | 0.30499433642845 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 08:58:59 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.2 | 20.63 | 26.915 | 203.72255367506 | 0.1794 | 0.9094 | 3.54 | 4.4494 | T | F | 1.2 | 82.2 | 92 | 454.9943809554 | 92.692617196036 | 0.30744217863718 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.37 | 20.97 | 27.17 | 204.09731596479 | 0.2202 | 0.9602 | 3.54 | 4.5002 | T | F | 1.37 | 79.37 | 92 | 455.13034755009 | 92.890882349094 | 0.31442412884301 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-04-01 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.75 | 21.28 | 27.515 | 204.14462771696 | 0.2361 | 0.9861 | 3.54 | 4.5261 | T | F | 1.75 | 82.75 | 92 | 455.14750341258 | 92.915917640464 | 0.33026979425816 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 20:59:49 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.76 | 20.84 | 26.8 | 202.91608617354 | 0.2407 | 1.0907 | 3.54 | 4.6307 | T | F | 0.76 | 81.76 | 92 | 454.70134913729 | 92.266218144766 | 0.28969661121803 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 16:58:57 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.94 | 22.97 | 27.955 | 202.89268708098 | 0.2447 | 1.1147 | 3.54 | 4.6547 | T | F | 0.94 | 81.94 | 92 | 454.69283805942 | 92.253851710352 | 0.29689808862154 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 13:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.8 | 20.4 | 26.6 | 203.5147198525 | 0.262 | 1.202 | 3.54 | 4.742 | T | F | 0.8 | 80.8 | 92 | 454.91892146218 | 92.582696856977 | 0.29128984625221 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.51 | 20.84 | 26.675 | 205.94035541478 | 0.2998 | 1.2498 | 3.54 | 4.7898 | T | F | 0.51 | 81.51 | 92 | 455.79713606549 | 93.867024198364 | 0.27983265138325 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 05:00:34 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.75 | 22.62 | 27.685 | 207.95782857707 | 0.3149 | 1.6749 | 3.54 | 5.2149 | T | F | 0.75 | 76.75 | 92 | 456.52346282253 | 94.937628023059 | 0.28929894174724 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-31 01:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.61 | 22.46 | 27.535 | 208.61853622116 | 0.362 | 1.812 | 3.54 | 5.352 | T | F | 0.61 | 80.61 | 92 | 456.76052159055 | 95.288711417835 | 0.28375866442349 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 21:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 32.37 | 22.37 | 27.37 | 204.44060429905 | 0.2258 | 1.5158 | 3.54 | 5.0558 | T | F | 0.37 | 80.37 | 92 | 455.25478162859 | 93.072562666181 | 0.27438084265443 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 16:59:49 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.27 | 20.83 | 27.05 | 203.98072391702 | 0.222 | 1.422 | 3.54 | 4.962 | T | F | 1.27 | 82.27 | 92 | 455.08806094135 | 92.829192116808 | 0.31030885592279 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 13:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 33.98 | 21.11 | 27.545 | 204.35789433353 | 0.2572 | 1.5572 | 3.54 | 5.0972 | T | F | 1.98 | 82.98 | 92 | 455.22481110057 | 93.028783844894 | 0.34001290168939 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 09:28:45 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 30.57 | 22.86 | 26.715 | 208.40789830979 | 0.2815 | 1.6315 | 3.54 | 5.1715 | T | F | -1.43 | 81.57 | 92 | 456.68498890124 | 95.176758726537 | 0.20927814062523 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 09:00:34 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 30.58 | 21.44 | 26.01 | 202.36095786182 | 0.2859 | 1.6659 | 3.48 | 5.1459 | T | F | -1.42 | 81.58 | 92 | 454.49929291026 | 91.972912260839 | 0.20961279720592 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 34.17 | 21.05 | 27.61 | 203.72573305263 | 0.1801 | 1.6201 | 3.92 | 5.5401 | T | F | 2.17 | 86.17 | 92 | 454.99553500208 | 92.694298903973 | 0.34814325000476 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-30 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 34.23 | 21.87 | 28.05 | 205.18041357079 | 0.2095 | 1.6695 | 4.3 | 5.9695 | T | T | 2.23 | 88.23 | 92 | 455.52257678877 | 93.46431069635 | 0.3507255072092 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 36.65 | 21.06 | 28.855 | 202.55317788784 | 0.1232 | 1.4632 | 4.36 | 5.8232 | T | F | 4.65 | 89.65 | 92 | 454.56928961994 | 92.074454182736 | 0.45937274177937 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 16:59:07 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 35.92 | 22.8 | 29.36 | 201.86467516835 | 0.0932 | 1.3632 | 4.33 | 5.6932 | T | F | 3.92 | 89.92 | 92 | 454.31841401558 | 91.710839068256 | 0.42587609521432 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 13:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 35.97 | 22.84 | 29.405 | 202.08395882788 | 0.0932 | 1.4232 | 4.31 | 5.7332 | T | F | 3.97 | 89.97 | 92 | 454.39836389111 | 91.826620260029 | 0.42815621015322 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 35.69 | 21.18 | 28.435 | 204.49627949479 | 0.1676 | 1.5176 | 4.27 | 5.7876 | T | F | 3.69 | 82.69 | 92 | 455.27495237549 | 93.102033907957 | 0.41542059207519 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 35.74 | 22.65 | 29.195 | 204.81687986147 | 0.1223 | 1.4523 | 4.54 | 5.9923 | T | F | 3.74 | 83.74 | 92 | 455.39104823132 | 93.271773615583 | 0.41768870841891 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-29 01:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 36.34 | 21.33 | 28.835 | 204.58177496531 | 0.0994 | 1.3294 | 4.64 | 5.9694 | T | F | 4.34 | 82.34 | 92 | 455.3059212535 | 93.147293522254 | 0.44509871053424 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 20:59:52 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 37.94 | 20.29 | 29.115 | 204.32836854129 | 0.0131 | 1.2031 | 4.93 | 6.1331 | T | T | 5.94 | 81.94 | 92 | 455.21411070045 | 93.013156576395 | 0.51912595545867 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 16:59:06 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 38.11 | 20.55 | 29.33 | 202.3512826173 | 0.0147 | 0.9247 | 4.89 | 5.8147 | T | F | 6.11 | 92.11 | 92 | 454.49576877722 | 91.967801756209 | 0.52699735760549 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 13:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 38.15 | 20.57 | 29.36 | 202.29292109301 | 0.0147 | 0.8047 | 5 | 5.8047 | T | F | 6.15 | 89.15 | 92 | 454.47450920613 | 91.936976029622 | 0.52884803543477 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 45.2 | 28.85 | 37.025 | 202.20186769037 | 0.0148 | 0.5948 | 4.9 | 5.4948 | T | F | 13.2 | 101.2 | 92 | 454.44133454747 | 91.888886601203 | 0.81382906079702 | 90 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 04:59:08 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 46.56 | 32.73 | 39.645 | 202.26889796323 | 0.0258 | 0.4458 | 5.13 | 5.5758 | T | F | 14.56 | 108.56 | 92 | 454.465757295 | 91.924287890085 | 0.85321350147357 | 90 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-28 01:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 46.59 | 32.74 | 39.665 | 194.61163332984 | 0.0258 | 0.4558 | 5.08 | 5.5358 | T | F | 14.59 | 111.59 | 92 | 451.64873387267 | 87.896097790314 | 0.85401425926097 | 90 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 36.45 | 24.4 | 30.425 | 194.18410012977 | 0.1122 | 0.4322 | 5.19 | 5.6222 | T | F | 4.45 | 96.45 | 92 | 451.48982833737 | 87.672146033436 | 0.45015652059596 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 17:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 38.33 | 22.13 | 30.23 | 194.92376371165 | 0.1603 | 0.6903 | 5.15 | 5.8403 | T | F | 6.33 | 102.33 | 92 | 451.76463755912 | 88.059663464851 | 0.5371678050543 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 13:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 38.35 | 22.17 | 30.26 | 195.78901203697 | 0.1603 | 0.6903 | 5.16 | 5.8503 | T | F | 6.35 | 100.35 | 92 | 452.08545107828 | 88.513363822903 | 0.53809128820071 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 36.92 | 23.93 | 30.425 | 199.20852024892 | 0.1933 | 0.7333 | 5.5 | 6.2333 | T | F | 4.92 | 92.92 | 92 | 453.34644661109 | 90.310474789499 | 0.47184843994852 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 35.24 | 25.91 | 30.575 | 201.29605757101 | 0.2235 | 0.9335 | 5.51 | 6.4435 | T | T | 3.24 | 94.24 | 92 | 454.11089092826 | 91.410732043918 | 0.39514287428742 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-27 01:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 36.95 | 27.75 | 32.35 | 199.91231008755 | 0.2049 | 0.8449 | 5.74 | 6.5849 | T | T | 4.95 | 100.95 | 92 | 453.60462349837 | 90.68114814995 | 0.47323656157752 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 21:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 39.23 | 28.08 | 33.655 | 188.57867333744 | 0.0034 | 1.3434 | 5.74 | 7.0834 | T | T | 7.23 | 111.23 | 92 | 449.39036151846 | 84.745438185785 | 0.57845174135316 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 17:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 34.12 | 21.33 | 27.725 | 192.12298096228 | 0.1479 | 1.8879 | 5.6 | 7.4879 | T | T | 2.12 | 90.12 | 92 | 450.72132566335 | 86.593924669712 | 0.3459967252351 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 13:00:28 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 27.76 | 21.34 | 24.55 | 191.01770869641 | 0.0257 | 1.7657 | 5.73 | 7.4957 | T | T | -4.24 | 90.76 | 92 | 450.30755696227 | 86.016717739612 | 0.12801029717068 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 09:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 27.04 | 25.62 | 26.33 | 183.57032012605 | 0.056 | 0.966 | 4.43 | 5.396 | T | F | -4.96 | 104.04 | 92 | 447.48907042935 | 82.145711911623 | 0.11129628567292 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 05:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 25.13 | 24.05 | 24.59 | 183.32731210233 | 0.0459 | 1.3459 | 4.29 | 5.6359 | T | F | -6.87 | 99.13 | 92 | 447.39620207189 | 82.019943170631 | 0.074630178473509 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2020-03-26 01:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 185 | -101 | 24.44 | 24.44 | 24.44 | 182.6484724219 | 0.0097 | 1.3097 | 4.16 | 5.4697 | T | F | -7.56 | 103.44 | 92 | 447.13647162254 | 81.668793505976 | 0.063931806719977 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |