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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 27, 2020

[ Thursday, March 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 28, 2020 ]

DAY 179 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2020 05:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 91

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 187 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 83.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-28 04:59:07OBSERVATION2020179-10731.0800222.9699427.02498187.009140416670.440000000000050.670000000000051.522.1900000000001FF-0.9199891.0800286445.35853276884 83.2861163903290.2678508095419486 2113126DRYL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020179-10636.2325.9331.08178.838895345620.31580.54581.522.0658FF4.2396.2387442.7505419471879.1810178355090.48402087253137862113126DRYL
2020-03-27 05:00:01FORECAST2020179-10632.2928.0330.16179.220440114250.35060.58061.522.1006FF0.2992.2987442.9008281312179.3768813446440.31446916979386862113126DRYL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10735.9226.3231.12179.045704118680.36020.59021.522.1102FF3.9295.9286442.2416403332579.1814658840670.47013450078002862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10735.8825.8230.85178.068096278910.36960.59961.522.1196FF3.8895.8886441.8546410533778.6802147643750.46834499536279862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 17:00:02FORECAST2020179-10735.4925.8130.65178.161636922460.44240.67241.522.1924FF3.4995.4986441.8917119708778.7281507471980.45093630841593862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020179-10735.2426.3530.795178.088522883840.44940.67941.522.1994FF3.2495.2486441.8627370346678.6906821559120.43982420650206862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 09:00:01FORECAST2020179-10735.5325.9630.745178.175369112550.49950.72951.522.2495FF3.5395.5386441.8971534080678.7351884182680.45271805086812862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 05:00:01FORECAST2020179-10734.9825.9530.465178.619345210140.56520.77521.522.2952FF2.9892.9886442.0729785494978.9627859636050.42831781427683862113126DRYL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10735.6627.2631.46178.220891219880.50660.70661.522.2266FF3.6696.6686441.9151903742278.7585190720980.4585151075342862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10731.4725.7928.63178.792849912550.5230.7131.522.233FF-0.5391.4786442.1416366907979.0517632889440.28249080401659862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020179-10731.5325.4428.485179.04243072390.54130.71131.522.2313FF-0.4792.5386442.2403461184779.179786533230.28477688267507862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020179-10732.8824.7428.81179.394426663770.67270.86271.522.3827FF0.8890.8886442.3794545009779.3604086080330.33839085112419862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020179-10733.3424.5228.93179.836734061830.63140.82141.522.3414FF1.3490.3486442.5540776265679.5874799661040.35751127010744862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020179-10733.3525.1929.27180.403555173670.70620.98621.522.5062FF1.3588.3586442.7775722075679.878648177410.35793114010379862113126DRYL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.1625.3429.25180.375594433570.68441.01441.522.5344FF1.1691.1686442.766554978179.8642805494790.34998351787362862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020179-10733.7324.9629.345180.569533292380.7111.2311.522.751FF1.7387.7386442.8429556232679.9639458187080.37400928158193862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.0724.7928.93180.316924052530.66521.19521.522.7152FF1.0791.0786442.7434348400779.8341343148160.34624140522487862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020179-10733.3726.1529.76180.075032236860.65351.20351.522.7235FF1.3791.3786442.6480765464879.7098666536930.35877139518741862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020179-10730.5125.9728.24180.575917134570.38520.86521.522.3852FF-1.4988.5186442.8454698465279.9672268664270.24716152310809861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020179-10730.5125.9328.22189.610914753670.36740.80741.512.3174FF-1.4988.5186446.3632804970284.6353499274870.24716152310809861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020179-10734.1125.1629.635189.499807746360.2920.5721.652.222FF2.1188.1186446.3205090118384.5776506510.39030958912997862113126DRYL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10734.1125.4529.78189.596909730820.33410.65411.672.3241FF2.1192.1186446.3578898220884.6280765442350.39030958912997862113126DRYL
2020-03-23 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10734.1324.1429.135187.902439318230.21840.60841.712.3184FF2.1392.1386445.7042538213983.7489165075490.39117314634707862113126DRYL
2020-03-23 16:59:25FORECAST2020179-10734.2624.4929.375188.581626922960.37560.77561.772.5456FF2.2693.2686445.966585916384.1011043253730.39679916890808862113126DRYL
2020-03-23 13:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.527.1730.335188.880375150930.46010.89011.792.6801FF1.587.586446.0818323741884.2561038468510.36424955306281862113126DRYL
2020-03-23 09:00:03FORECAST2020179-10733.2326.9130.07191.79082096030.70771.17771.883.0577FF1.2387.2386447.2000148979785.7688579907390.3529041733721862114128DRYL
2020-03-23 04:59:30FORECAST2020179-10733.8227.3630.597.24481704911210.49030.93031.982.9103FF1.8290.8286357.082868090282.58700005068630.377850792431558621133218DRYL
2020-03-23 01:00:03FORECAST2020179-10733.8227.3630.59190.835393564070.49030.91031.952.8603FF1.8290.8286446.8338542292385.2717144295850.37785079243155862113126DRYL
2020-03-22 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.7824.7129.245192.176890225650.58140.97142.022.9914FF1.7888.7886447.3477212711685.9698939234230.37614193765598862113126DRYL
2020-03-22 17:00:03FORECAST2020179-10730.1627.3428.75191.657192517150.4120.6922.112.802FF-1.8486.1686447.1488561932685.6992944152520.23489409035896861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-22 13:00:02FORECAST2020179-10730.1627.3428.75190.681151383270.4120.6621.982.642FF-1.8484.1686446.7746586740285.1915063248290.23489409035896861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-22 08:59:27FORECAST2020179-10733.5427.730.62195.788208586870.53611.01612.033.0461FF1.5486.5486448.7223851191887.8545519353110.36594079358319862114128DRYL
2020-03-22 05:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.825.6629.73196.622279076410.56451.01452.023.0345FF1.888.886449.0380891869488.290892488050.37699606398722862114128DRYL
2020-03-22 01:00:03FORECAST2020179-10733.825.6629.73195.041344821960.56450.99451.792.7845FF1.893.886448.4391215218787.4641693324040.37699606398722862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.7126.7830.245194.399643239830.7530.9631.762.723FF1.7194.7186448.195313304987.1290090082350.37315729322525862113126DRYL
2020-03-21 17:00:02FORECAST2020179-10734.5427.4530.995196.778772020010.92231.23231.853.0823FF2.5494.5486449.0972488584988.3728051479380.40898850382563862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 13:00:03FORECAST2020179-10734.5427.4530.995197.13069954490.92231.23231.863.0923FF2.5492.5486449.2302035969188.5570642917570.40898850382563862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 09:00:02FORECAST2020179-10731.6224.0827.85198.702507640531.06091.36091.73.0609FF-0.3887.6286449.8225685229289.3808723588090.28822244429559862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 05:00:02FORECAST2020179-10731.3125.4828.395197.809117812010.97161.22161.72.9216FF-0.6994.3186449.4861681730988.9124623950170.27643805494863862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10731.3125.4828.395198.537079007640.97161.22161.762.9816FF-0.6998.3186449.760334981489.2941031607040.27643805494863862114128DRYL
2020-03-20 21:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.4326.5629.995195.531892854680.4580.9081.732.638FF1.4397.4386448.6252326106987.7205409147410.36129624792666862113126DRYL
2020-03-20 17:00:02FORECAST2020179-10733.6426.8730.255196.917800375860.56481.06481.82.8648FF1.6496.6486449.1497865982388.4455880162110.37018023817117862114128DRYL
2020-03-20 12:59:36FORECAST2020179-10730.1926.8728.53196.060420386190.44880.94881.772.7188FF-1.8190.1986448.8254935532587.9969149460890.23593224716416861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-20 09:00:03FORECAST2020179-10729.8224.7927.305196.095156526710.31670.72671.912.6367FF-2.1894.8286448.8386457864788.0150845007320.22330611305895861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-20 05:00:02FORECAST2020179-10726.3625.9526.155196.661937464660.2020.7421.932.672FF-5.6486.3686449.0530836352988.3116494521970.12496849566385861113124.5DRYL
2020-03-20 01:00:02FORECAST2020179-10725.9525.9525.95195.357361893970.03890.57891.932.5089FF-6.0587.9586448.5590431464587.6293113227750.11571624546261861113124.5DRYL