Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 28, 2020

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DAY 180 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2020 09:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.37°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.78°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.316 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.57 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.74 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 191 in SWE DAY: 87 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 85.40 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -105 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-28 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	180	-105	33.37	28.18	30.775	188.55160638406	0.5655	1.1455	1.59	2.7355	F	F	1.37	87.37	88	447.10540514458	84.302442363008	0.31647928850294	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-28 04:59:08	FORECAST	2020	180	-105	33.92	29.86	31.89	189.16702234754	0.7423	1.3223	1.59	2.9123	F	F	1.92	87.92	88	447.34093656862	84.622152944845	0.33909824420263	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-28 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	33.49	27.89	30.69	181.81059620401	0.9218	1.3818	1.59	2.9718	F	F	1.49	92.49	87	443.91722005	80.708854442517	0.32135988628518	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-27 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	33.16	29.38	31.27	181.02263301314	0.9834	1.4434	1.59	3.0334	T	F	1.16	92.16	87	443.60872622204	80.30321964832	0.30801500021285	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-27 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	38.45	29.7	34.075	180.32723565815	0.9697	1.4297	1.59	3.0197	F	F	6.45	97.45	87	443.33595928862	79.945548006373	0.54022271689217	86	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-27 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	37.29	30.94	34.115	180.58227148033	1.0175	1.4775	1.59	3.0675	T	F	5.29	96.29	87	443.43605205822	80.076689536944	0.48758826881184	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-27 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	32.27	30.08	31.175	182.45518806893	1.051	1.511	1.59	3.101	T	F	0.27	91.27	87	444.16912413719	81.040961078863	0.27330268332777	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-27 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	37.2	29.93	33.565	182.15564865993	1.0031	1.4931	1.59	3.0831	T	F	5.2	92.2	87	444.05211655391	80.886601329694	0.48350180262767	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-27 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	32.06	29.78	30.92	182.36436121224	0.9468	1.4468	1.59	3.0368	T	F	0.060000000000002	91.06	87	444.13365429964	80.994150159212	0.26540355949567	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-26 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.67	29.44	33.055	179.20188543107	0.9869	1.4969	1.59	3.0869	T	F	4.67	95.67	87	442.89352301933	79.367354370271	0.45948632509512	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-26 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	32.98	30.45	31.715	179.66536528288	1.0122	1.5922	1.59	3.1822	T	F	0.98	90.98	87	443.07589529302	79.605392575861	0.30084000992664	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-26 13:00:28	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.72	28.98	32.85	179.88120048852	1.0743	1.6643	1.59	3.2543	T	F	4.72	94.72	87	443.16074992223	79.716287705404	0.46174700379063	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-26 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.59	28.96	32.775	180.28228753026	1.1043	1.7443	1.59	3.3343	T	F	4.59	95.59	87	443.31831197602	79.922439387092	0.45587199234655	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-26 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.4	29.33	32.865	180.52613113571	1.1264	1.8164	1.59	3.4064	T	F	4.4	92.4	87	443.41402447318	80.047818329458	0.44730311541213	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-26 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.2	28.68	32.44	180.55404453201	1.1198	1.7398	1.59	3.3298	T	F	4.2	96.2	87	443.42497714468	80.062173069985	0.43830981610594	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.7	28.58	32.64	181.00078697388	1.0489	1.6689	1.59	3.2589	T	F	4.7	90.7	87	443.60016452532	80.291978880826	0.46084257985763	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 16:59:16	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.69	28.4	32.545	180.82714759885	1.0116	1.6316	1.59	3.2216	T	F	4.69	92.69	87	443.53209649734	80.202643878151	0.46039044353787	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.51	27.11	31.31	180.84889899339	0.838	1.608	1.59	3.198	T	F	3.51	89.51	87	443.54062486337	80.213833665379	0.40755479876339	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 08:59:18	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	33.67	27.57	30.62	181.56213478005	0.8072	1.5372	1.59	3.1272	T	F	1.67	86.67	87	443.82001207648	80.580908850714	0.32873871624826	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.48	27.43	31.955	181.87974049478	0.692	1.512	1.67	3.182	T	F	4.48	87.48	87	443.94426113185	80.744467008806	0.45090830164016	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-25 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.48	29.03	32.755	181.02483536547	0.6097	1.4097	1.71	3.1197	T	F	4.48	90.48	87	443.60958932114	80.304352873404	0.45090830164016	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 21:00:04	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	31.68	27.83	29.755	181.49037154384	0.4936	1.3336	1.89	3.2236	T	F	-0.32	82.68	87	443.79192402907	80.543961180189	0.25141010243819	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	31.86	28.61	30.235	180.83097527868	0.3081	1.1081	1.9	3.0081	F	F	-0.14	85.86	87	443.53359730216	80.204612969012	0.2579896788231	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.59	28.68	32.135	180.30271267836	0.4237	1.2037	1.92	3.1237	F	F	3.59	89.59	87	443.32633144682	79.932940161607	0.41109531464743	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 10:03:53	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.12	28.1	32.11	180.90997496612	0.4156	0.9656	1.82	2.7856	F	F	4.12	88.12	87	443.56456923447	80.245255116066	0.43472113032396	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 09:00:04	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	36.12	28.1	32.11	189.94927379415	0.4156	0.9256	1.79	2.7156	F	F	4.12	88.12	87	447.06771312899	84.920187445662	0.43472113032396	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.85	26.96	30.905	190.56102444582	0.5705	0.9705	1.8	2.7705	F	F	2.85	85.85	87	447.30190138002	85.238308563539	0.37865820095939	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.85	26.96	30.905	190.68217305801	0.5705	1.0405	1.83	2.8705	F	F	2.85	89.85	87	447.34823591732	85.301333738381	0.37865820095939	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.38	27.39	30.885	189.02130770211	0.7854	1.1754	1.91	3.0854	F	F	2.38	89.38	87	446.71177700762	84.438044255912	0.35847602654479	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 16:59:25	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.42	27.99	31.205	189.70289846294	0.9485	1.5085	1.97	3.4785	T	F	2.42	90.42	87	446.9732937478	84.792129359486	0.36017926893044	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-23 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.06	27.8	30.93	190.55887894628	1.2165	1.8565	2.02	3.8765	T	F	2.06	85.06	87	447.30108068308	85.237192486429	0.34495376905324	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-23 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	33.57	28.61	31.09	191.911766222	1.0636	1.9536	2.15	4.1036	T	F	1.57	83.57	87	447.81770067404	85.941485881831	0.32463089481067	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-23 04:59:30	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.71	28.24	31.975	7.3089804380016	0.5194	1.2194	2.19	3.4094	T	F	3.71	89.71	87	358.03533182395	2.6168732364146	0.41641960473622	86	2	1	1	4	3	2	24	DRY	L
2020-03-23 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.71	28.24	31.975	190.90304980433	0.5194	1.2094	2.15	3.3594	T	F	3.71	89.71	87	447.43267582343	85.416262396804	0.41641960473622	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.26	27.68	31.47	192.33282778348	0.9665	1.7065	2.23	3.9365	T	F	3.26	87.26	87	447.97812734463	86.160900017343	0.39654050262824	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-22 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.55	28.34	31.945	192.38880415734	1.08	1.61	2.25	3.86	T	F	3.55	84.55	87	447.99944171965	86.1900768556	0.40932413235524	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-22 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	35.55	28.34	31.945	191.43752730136	1.08	1.61	2.09	3.7	T	F	3.55	82.55	87	447.6368075832	85.694483572802	0.40932413235524	86	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-03-22 08:59:27	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	29.39	26.12	27.755	204.39176534244	1.1602	1.9902	2.2	4.1902	T	F	-2.61	79.39	87	452.50057535481	92.487391415239	0.17593794099777	86	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-22 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	29.28	27.21	28.245	202.67973090913	0.7914	1.6514	2.15	3.8014	T	F	-2.72	81.28	87	451.86691939871	91.584265630467	0.17271461275438	86	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	29.28	27.21	28.245	201.43446644972	0.7914	1.6514	1.9	3.5514	T	F	-2.72	86.28	87	451.40428963684	90.928382236114	0.17271461275438	86	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-03-21 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	31.09	28.67	29.88	196.54203099253	0.3052	1.1952	1.81	3.0052	F	F	-0.91	89.09	87	449.57246048407	88.359884461845	0.23047979036944	86	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	34.42	27.94	31.18	197.37500009855	0.0963	1.2463	1.91	3.1563	T	F	2.42	92.42	87	449.88595146947	88.796239715622	0.36017926893044	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	30.45	27.94	29.195	197.73276268837	0.0794	1.2294	1.92	3.1494	T	F	-1.55	86.45	87	450.02039325436	88.983775624292	0.20891878173402	86	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	28.78	26.53	27.655	200.08671914411	0.1514	1.4014	1.79	3.1914	T	F	-3.22	79.78	87	450.90193471184	90.219488772222	0.15854022064549	86	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	25.59	25.06	25.325	200.7081658257	0.2706	1.4206	1.75	3.1706	T	F	-6.41	82.59	87	451.13378438737	90.546234406398	0.086240549651664	86	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	180	-106	25.59	25.59	25.59	199.04957900764	0.0442	1.1942	1.81	3.0042	F	F	-6.41	86.59	87	450.51418191304	89.67465824676	0.086240549651664	86	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L