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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 28, 2020

[ Friday, March 27, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 29, 2020 ]

DAY 180 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2020 09:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.316
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 191 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 85.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-28 09:00:01FORECAST2020180-10533.3728.1830.775188.551606384060.56551.14551.592.7355FF1.3787.3788447.1054051445884.3024423630080.31647928850294862114128DRYL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020180-10533.9229.8631.89189.167022347540.74231.32231.592.9123FF1.9287.9288447.3409365686284.6221529448450.33909824420263862114128DRYL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020180-10633.4927.8930.69181.810596204010.92181.38181.592.9718FF1.4992.4987443.9172200580.7088544425170.32135988628518862114128DRYL
2020-03-27 21:00:01FORECAST2020180-10633.1629.3831.27181.022633013140.98341.44341.593.0334TF1.1692.1687443.6087262220480.303219648320.30801500021285862114128DRYL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020180-10638.4529.734.075180.327235658150.96971.42971.593.0197FF6.4597.4587443.3359592886279.9455480063730.540222716892178631141210DRYL
2020-03-27 13:00:02FORECAST2020180-10637.2930.9434.115180.582271480331.01751.47751.593.0675TF5.2996.2987443.4360520582280.0766895369440.48758826881184862114128DRYL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020180-10632.2730.0831.175182.455188068931.0511.5111.593.101TF0.2791.2787444.1691241371981.0409610788630.273302683327778621151210DRYL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020180-10637.229.9333.565182.155648659931.00311.49311.593.0831TF5.292.287444.0521165539180.8866013296940.48350180262767862114128DRYL
2020-03-27 01:00:02FORECAST2020180-10632.0629.7830.92182.364361212240.94681.44681.593.0368TF0.06000000000000291.0687444.1336542996480.9941501592120.26540355949567862114128DRYL
2020-03-26 21:00:02FORECAST2020180-10636.6729.4433.055179.201885431070.98691.49691.593.0869TF4.6795.6787442.8935230193379.3673543702710.45948632509512862114128DRYL
2020-03-26 17:00:03FORECAST2020180-10632.9830.4531.715179.665365282881.01221.59221.593.1822TF0.9890.9887443.0758952930279.6053925758610.300840009926648621151210DRYL
2020-03-26 13:00:28FORECAST2020180-10636.7228.9832.85179.881200488521.07431.66431.593.2543TF4.7294.7287443.1607499222379.7162877054040.461747003790638621151210DRYL
2020-03-26 09:00:02FORECAST2020180-10636.5928.9632.775180.282287530261.10431.74431.593.3343TF4.5995.5987443.3183119760279.9224393870920.455871992346558621151210DRYL
2020-03-26 05:00:01FORECAST2020180-10636.429.3332.865180.526131135711.12641.81641.593.4064TF4.492.487443.4140244731880.0478183294580.447303115412138621151210DRYL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020180-10636.228.6832.44180.554044532011.11981.73981.593.3298TF4.296.287443.4249771446880.0621730699850.438309816105948621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 21:00:02FORECAST2020180-10636.728.5832.64181.000786973881.04891.66891.593.2589TF4.790.787443.6001645253280.2919788808260.460842579857638621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020180-10636.6928.432.545180.827147598851.01161.63161.593.2216TF4.6992.6987443.5320964973480.2026438781510.460390443537878621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 13:00:03FORECAST2020180-10635.5127.1131.31180.848898993390.8381.6081.593.198TF3.5189.5187443.5406248633780.2138336653790.407554798763398621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020180-10633.6727.5730.62181.562134780050.80721.53721.593.1272TF1.6786.6787443.8200120764880.5809088507140.328738716248268621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020180-10636.4827.4331.955181.879740494780.6921.5121.673.182TF4.4887.4887443.9442611318580.7444670088060.450908301640168621151210DRYL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020180-10636.4829.0332.755181.024835365470.60971.40971.713.1197TF4.4890.4887443.6095893211480.3043528734040.45090830164016862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020180-10631.6827.8329.755181.490371543840.49361.33361.893.2236TF-0.3282.6887443.7919240290780.5439611801890.25141010243819862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020180-10631.8628.6130.235180.830975278680.30811.10811.93.0081FF-0.1485.8687443.5335973021680.2046129690120.2579896788231862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020180-10635.5928.6832.135180.302712678360.42371.20371.923.1237FF3.5989.5987443.3263314468279.9329401616070.41109531464743862114128DRYL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020180-10636.1228.132.11180.909974966120.41560.96561.822.7856FF4.1288.1287443.5645692344780.2452551160660.43472113032396862113126DRYL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020180-10636.1228.132.11189.949273794150.41560.92561.792.7156FF4.1288.1287447.0677131289984.9201874456620.43472113032396862113126DRYL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020180-10634.8526.9630.905190.561024445820.57050.97051.82.7705FF2.8585.8587447.3019013800285.2383085635390.37865820095939862113126DRYL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020180-10634.8526.9630.905190.682173058010.57051.04051.832.8705FF2.8589.8587447.3482359173285.3013337383810.37865820095939862114128DRYL
2020-03-23 21:00:02FORECAST2020180-10634.3827.3930.885189.021307702110.78541.17541.913.0854FF2.3889.3887446.7117770076284.4380442559120.35847602654479862114128DRYL
2020-03-23 16:59:25FORECAST2020180-10634.4227.9931.205189.702898462940.94851.50851.973.4785TF2.4290.4287446.973293747884.7921293594860.360179268930448621151210DRYL
2020-03-23 13:00:02FORECAST2020180-10634.0627.830.93190.558878946281.21651.85652.023.8765TF2.0685.0687447.3010806830885.2371924864290.344953769053248621151210DRYL
2020-03-23 09:00:03FORECAST2020180-10633.5728.6131.09191.9117662221.06361.95362.154.1036TF1.5783.5787447.8177006740485.9414858818310.324630894810678621151210WETL
2020-03-23 04:59:30FORECAST2020180-10635.7128.2431.9757.30898043800160.51941.21942.193.4094TF3.7189.7187358.035331823952.61687323641460.416419604736228621143224DRYL
2020-03-23 01:00:03FORECAST2020180-10635.7128.2431.975190.903049804330.51941.20942.153.3594TF3.7189.7187447.4326758234385.4162623968040.41641960473622862114128DRYL
2020-03-22 21:00:02FORECAST2020180-10635.2627.6831.47192.332827783480.96651.70652.233.9365TF3.2687.2687447.9781273446386.1609000173430.396540502628248621151210DRYL
2020-03-22 17:00:03FORECAST2020180-10635.5528.3431.945192.388804157341.081.612.253.86TF3.5584.5587447.9994417196586.19007685560.409324132355248621151210DRYL
2020-03-22 13:00:03FORECAST2020180-10635.5528.3431.945191.437527301361.081.612.093.7TF3.5582.5587447.636807583285.6944835728020.409324132355248621151210DRYL
2020-03-22 08:59:27FORECAST2020180-10629.3926.1227.755204.391765342441.16021.99022.24.1902TF-2.6179.3987452.5005753548192.4873914152390.17593794099777861115127.5WETL
2020-03-22 05:00:02FORECAST2020180-10629.2827.2128.245202.679730909130.79141.65142.153.8014TF-2.7281.2887451.8669193987191.5842656304670.17271461275438861115127.5DRYL
2020-03-22 01:00:03FORECAST2020180-10629.2827.2128.245201.434466449720.79141.65141.93.5514TF-2.7286.2887451.4042896368490.9283822361140.17271461275438861115127.5DRYL
2020-03-21 21:00:02FORECAST2020180-10631.0928.6729.88196.542030992530.30521.19521.813.0052FF-0.9189.0987449.5724604840788.3598844618450.23047979036944861114126DRYL
2020-03-21 17:00:02FORECAST2020180-10634.4227.9431.18197.375000098550.09631.24631.913.1563TF2.4292.4287449.8859514694788.7962397156220.36017926893044862114128DRYL
2020-03-21 13:00:03FORECAST2020180-10630.4527.9429.195197.732762688370.07941.22941.923.1494TF-1.5586.4587450.0203932543688.9837756242920.20891878173402861114126DRYL
2020-03-21 09:00:02FORECAST2020180-10628.7826.5327.655200.086719144110.15141.40141.793.1914TF-3.2279.7887450.9019347118490.2194887722220.15854022064549861114126DRYL
2020-03-21 05:00:02FORECAST2020180-10625.5925.0625.325200.70816582570.27061.42061.753.1706TF-6.4182.5987451.1337843873790.5462344063980.086240549651664861114126DRYL
2020-03-21 01:00:02FORECAST2020180-10625.5925.5925.59199.049579007640.04421.19421.813.0042FF-6.4186.5987450.5141819130489.674658246760.086240549651664861114126DRYL