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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 26, 2020

[ Wednesday, March 25, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, March 27, 2020 ]

DAY 178 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/26/2020 09:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.332
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 97

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 188 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.89 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 83.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-26 09:00:01FORECAST2020178-10733.0225.1229.07178.156975652260.14280.61281.151.7628FF1.0297.0286441.8898648801178.7257618984240.33230940847959882113126DRYL
2020-03-26 05:00:01FORECAST2020178-10731.1722.0926.63178.183137451520.11680.58681.151.7368FF-0.8395.1786441.900231560578.7391697000050.25530663885638882113126DRYL
2020-03-26 01:00:02FORECAST2020178-10833.7825.5929.685178.083625866860.10650.57651.151.7265FF1.7897.7885441.2667191590878.5823773222250.36640480568709882113126DRYL
2020-03-25 21:00:01FORECAST2020178-10833.4821.3727.425178.109862113740.0970.5671.151.717FF1.4897.4885441.2771568636478.5958135629270.35280180376447882113126DRYL
2020-03-25 16:59:16FORECAST2020178-10833.720.4927.095178.109014269520.08340.55341.151.7034FF1.797.785441.2768195721778.595379353990.36276006899079882113126DRYL
2020-03-25 13:00:02FORECAST2020178-10831.3221.1926.255178.203932424940.09660.56661.151.7166FF-0.6895.3285441.3145756344378.6439928144980.26118634886883882113126DRYL
2020-03-25 08:59:18FORECAST2020178-10830.1921.1925.69178.605481684830.09680.56681.151.7168FF-1.8194.1985441.4742011903578.8497123550270.21865656117655881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-25 05:00:03FORECAST2020178-10830.5820.3425.46178.972529686470.10990.65991.151.8099FF-1.4291.5885441.6199693030779.0378430662320.23286725351482881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-25 01:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.972125.985178.989592834380.12160.71161.151.8616FF-1.0394.9785441.6267423946679.0465908059960.24757585976384881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 21:00:04FORECAST2020178-10826.920.9723.935179.191485676780.13340.90341.152.0534FF-5.190.985441.7068599989579.1501084768390.1198069097721881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 17:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.8421.6326.235178.939888398370.13360.91361.152.0636FF-1.1694.8485441.607011764979.0211094011490.2426186266742881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 13:00:03FORECAST2020178-10830.7921.2926.04178.971223896070.13340.93341.152.0834FF-1.2194.7985441.6194509670479.0371736358790.24072638614387881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 10:03:53FORECAST2020178-10830.7221.5126.115179.932934715750.16270.86271.152.0127FF-1.2894.7285442.0007386880979.5304900586760.23809077718243881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 09:00:04FORECAST2020178-10830.6121.0525.83188.937043254260.13710.80711.151.9571FF-1.3994.6185445.5257596871584.1763197288990.23398120028585881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 05:00:03FORECAST2020178-10830.4120.4525.43189.106546674920.1120.7921.151.942FF-1.5991.4185445.5913485724484.2642411567560.22661076275286881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-24 01:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.9220.6225.77189.15206704620.13920.84921.151.9992FF-1.0894.9285445.6089577461884.2878554519930.24566286229034881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-23 21:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.9819.7125.345187.676805678280.17230.96231.152.1123FF-1.0294.9885445.037227740283.5231653101970.24795941052679881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-23 16:59:25FORECAST2020178-10831.5519.8425.695187.937261607530.18461.03461.152.1846FF-0.4595.5585445.138321895883.6580772536660.2703349735276882114128DRYL
2020-03-23 13:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.9620.7423.85188.247821326260.1811.0811.152.231FF-5.0490.9685445.2587761055283.8189945282590.12126870714288881114126DRYL
2020-03-23 09:00:03FORECAST2020178-10828.1620.4724.315190.618834862360.18041.21041.152.3604FF-3.8491.1685446.1752761785785.0494112895490.15315074863929881114126DRYL
2020-03-23 04:59:30FORECAST2020178-10830.520.925.76.59971106262130.20951.11951.312.4295FF-1.594.585355.769599538512.34797656181870.229911157658628811144224DRYL
2020-03-23 01:00:03FORECAST2020178-10830.524.4627.48190.176273330630.20011.13011.252.3801FF-1.594.585446.0046255653484.8194975782390.22991115765862881114126DRYL
2020-03-22 21:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.6520.4823.565191.004240417760.15711.10711.312.4171FF-5.3591.6585446.3237314037685.2497252971930.11384954577516881114126DRYL
2020-03-22 17:00:03FORECAST2020178-10826.8521.324.075190.856477396990.12311.05311.352.4031FF-5.1592.8585446.2668314136285.172915422720.11859824205589881114126DRYL
2020-03-22 13:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.8521.324.075189.861652303510.12310.98311.262.2431FF-5.1590.8585445.8831917747184.6561195247090.11859824205589881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-22 08:59:27FORECAST2020178-10830.1223.9927.055192.805697495960.28771.23771.282.5177FF-1.8890.1285447.015714722686.1871766687450.21615972695549881114126DRYL
2020-03-22 05:00:02FORECAST2020178-10829.921.5825.74193.140078623850.30181.21181.272.4818FF-2.191.985447.1438105752286.3613907306650.20842064834895881114126DRYL
2020-03-22 01:00:03FORECAST2020178-10829.921.5825.74191.468615576310.30181.10181.132.2318FF-2.196.985446.5024121694685.4911987095710.20842064834895881114126DRYL
2020-03-21 21:00:02FORECAST2020178-10831.3221.426.36190.034888937580.14330.78331.21.9833FF-0.6898.3285445.9500676558984.7460715786950.26118634886883882113126DRYL
2020-03-21 17:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.8422.1526.495191.463720782030.22850.97851.192.1685FF-1.1696.8485446.5005298652485.4886527791490.2426186266742881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-21 13:00:03FORECAST2020178-10830.8422.1526.495191.65191394950.22851.01851.162.1785FF-1.1694.8485446.5728831294885.586547769710.2426186266742881114126DRYL
2020-03-21 09:00:02FORECAST2020178-10831.4722.7527.11190.601013662440.19380.84381.172.0138FF-0.5393.4785446.1684080748785.0401508432260.26713478168215882113126DRYL
2020-03-21 05:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.9620.7425.85190.436937441060.18090.77091.191.9609FF-1.0499.9685446.1051602088884.9549004868310.24719262569168881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-21 01:00:02FORECAST2020178-10830.9620.7425.85190.795204552130.18090.81091.212.0209FF-1.04103.9685446.2432304482785.1410684333810.24719262569168881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-20 21:00:02FORECAST2020178-10831.4623.6427.55191.993486110350.28620.98621.22.1862FF-0.54101.4685446.7041165835985.764280602730.26673610482991882113126DRYL
2020-03-20 17:00:02FORECAST2020178-10831.4823.3427.41192.661788532140.31411.07411.242.3141FF-0.52100.4885446.9605520945286.1122193698450.26753375873884882114128DRYL
2020-03-20 12:59:36FORECAST2020178-10831.4823.3427.41192.273912425350.31411.07411.212.2841FF-0.5297.4885446.8117724715785.9102476108130.26753375873884882114128DRYL
2020-03-20 09:00:03FORECAST2020178-10831.4124.2627.835193.220665064710.31191.14191.192.3319FF-0.59102.4185447.1746656353186.4033862941420.26474723613297882114128DRYL
2020-03-20 05:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.9723.4625.215194.583789267280.41561.35561.122.4756FF-5.0396.9785447.6956249190687.1143111351360.12151355057448881114126DRYL
2020-03-20 01:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.9723.4625.215194.911161893970.41561.35561.122.4756FF-5.0398.9785447.8204719191387.2852085016650.12151355057448881114126DRYL
2020-03-19 21:00:01FORECAST2020178-10830.7723.2126.99194.570610371210.47561.29561.142.4356FF-1.23103.7785447.6905968341787.1074326834760.23997174131846881114126DRYL
2020-03-19 17:00:03FORECAST2020178-10831.1722.9227.045194.129838347490.35531.21531.142.3553FF-0.83101.1785447.522334080986.8774383720180.25530663885638882114128DRYL
2020-03-19 13:00:02FORECAST2020178-10826.1622.9224.54192.87762403790.15721.01721.152.1672FF-5.8494.1685447.043277770386.2246452584510.10279014374584881114126DRYL
2020-03-19 09:00:03FORECAST2020178-1082321.3222.16190.864015219250.0970.6771.191.867FF-98685446.2697345648785.176833409880.049476411460202881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-19 05:00:03FORECAST2020178-10826.4223.725.06190.039061429650.0590.5991.151.749FF-5.5892.4285445.9516780324784.7482383362680.10855741696541881113124.5DRYL
2020-03-19 01:00:03FORECAST2020178-10823.723.723.7189.648689802230.00580.54581.171.7158FF-8.393.785445.8009398761984.5455641601220.058815708815654881113124.5DRYL