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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 13, 2019

[ Thursday, December 12, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 14, 2019 ]

DAY 74 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/14/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.392
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.83 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 39 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 12.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-14 04:00:12OBSERVATION20207415429.8999424.8927.3949749.9104227272730.829999999999982.811.94.71TF-2.1000619.8999419319.16340880364 15.9295806524670.3918634804345391 22151212.5WETL
2019-12-14 00:00:12FORECAST20207515526.3226.3226.3225.0158836396660.00361.98361.93.8836TF-5.6816.3219300.969130949747.529008758970.241184602339259112152220DRYL
2019-12-13 12:00:11FORECAST20207415433.3925.4829.43525.2369649047010.14482.12481.94.0248TF1.3923.3919301.135824606727.5997542371480.55677234884439132152230WETL
2019-12-13 08:00:11FORECAST20207415433.3725.2929.3325.4255083377050.20542.18541.94.0854TF1.3723.3719301.27791103997.66014403911120.555827948263579132152230WETL
2019-12-13 04:00:12FORECAST20207415427.7825.6226.726.3136788597750.45792.43791.94.3379TF-4.2217.7819301.946322332997.94531855876060.298776295234249122152225WETL
2019-12-13 00:00:13FORECAST20207415428.525.5227.0129.8022595840830.63051.09051.92.9905FF-3.515.519304.55718191289.07649219356210.329302900116359122142220DRYL
2019-12-12 20:00:11FORECAST20207415429.0825.1127.09528.6119802391770.63882.37881.94.2788TF-2.9218.0819303.668973786048.68857067721730.354762214644129122152225WETL
2019-12-12 16:00:11FORECAST20207415433.8326.4530.1428.6591908672540.71462.45461.94.3546TF1.8322.8319303.704254382798.70391819355350.577458297011149132152230WETL
2019-12-12 12:00:11FORECAST20207415429.6426.3527.99529.2364723274660.65822.39821.94.2982TF-2.3618.6419304.135315997868.89184374997660.379976344233829122152225WETL
2019-12-12 08:00:10FORECAST20207415432.6625.4329.04529.9423181713720.64822.35821.94.2582TF0.6622.6619304.661519711649.12227215777960.522136054063789132152230WETL
2019-12-12 04:00:12FORECAST20207415430.3525.4527.930.3528933211410.6072.5571.94.457TF-1.6520.3519304.967167249739.25663589398150.412679341548529122152225WETL
2019-12-12 00:00:13FORECAST20207415429.9325.3727.6516.264022792220.60282.80281.94.7028TF-2.0722.9319294.294526467874.78641288609910.393244902432259122153237.5WETL
2019-12-11 20:00:11FORECAST20207415429.9624.8927.42517.3758237202050.633.311.95.21TT-2.0428.9619295.150691077365.12848637905690.394624908148219122152225WETL
2019-12-11 16:00:11FORECAST20207415429.7325.327.51516.9632032014150.63023.36021.95.2602TT-2.2728.7319294.833226480715.00131593132110.384079889933339122152225WETL
2019-12-11 12:00:11FORECAST20207415429.7225.3627.5416.4944585139760.60443.38441.95.2844TT-2.2829.7219294.472176800744.857159103760.38362328890469122153237.5WETL
2019-12-11 08:00:11FORECAST20207415430.5723.727.13516.6379159458430.8133.6231.95.523TT-1.4328.5719294.582720259244.90124253877110.422948648319069122153237.5WETL
2019-12-11 04:00:12FORECAST20207415430.925.828.3517.7097498367790.87683.72681.95.6268TT-1.126.919295.407365798385.23159054823110.438449118616229122152225WETL
2019-12-11 00:00:12FORECAST20207415430.9526.2528.614.8198514142710.8213.3211.564.881TF-1.0522.9519293.178797191444.34486621219180.44080654507379122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 20:00:11FORECAST20207415430.5726.6328.614.7040323101620.65553.47551.975.4455TT-1.4328.5719293.089140961284.30959219845230.422948648319069122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 16:00:11FORECAST20207415430.6824.7327.70514.9185239028950.48563.36561.975.3356TT-1.3229.6819293.255159324314.37493410402710.428103463354319122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 12:00:11FORECAST20207415430.132427.06514.4536160126970.66883.54881.975.5188TT-1.8729.1319292.895202088554.23339478294920.402469448853889122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 08:00:11FORECAST20207415430.7322.9826.85515.6727835988590.50143.36141.865.2214TT-1.2729.7319293.838245167574.60526322957990.430450678161649122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 04:00:12FORECAST20207415429.4923.5326.5115.0645677956990.55713.69711.95.5971TT-2.5124.4919293.368146823454.41946433692030.37316723291079122153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 00:00:13FORECAST20207415430.5423.5327.03515.3094748165590.50123.98121.925.9012TT-1.4614.5419293.557526166184.49421155405250.421545037070969122153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 20:00:11FORECAST20207415430.5925.4528.0217.368644579411.65443.81441.815.6244TT-1.4125.5919295.145170388055.12627156379950.423884933914669122152225WETL
2019-12-09 16:00:10FORECAST20207415431.3325.328.31515.3570841659951.1243.5441.795.334TT-0.6726.3319293.594327390844.50875279639960.45878564302729122153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 12:00:11FORECAST20207415431.3325.328.31514.8498089143821.1243.5841.85.384TT-0.6726.3319293.201983170384.3539934233980.45878564302729122153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 08:00:11FORECAST20207415430.3924.8127.614.6497885821081.36984.10981.825.9298TT-1.6128.3919293.047141511564.29307866773550.414542266521179122153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 04:00:12FORECAST20207415430.5624.1927.37514.616758777931.01783.35781.885.2378TT-1.4423.5619293.021564593924.28302552640090.422480668307119122153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 00:00:13FORECAST20207415430.5624.1927.37516.4542649045351.01783.27781.654.9278TF-1.4419.5619294.441197736494.8448134663650.422480668307119122153237.5WETL
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207415432.3925.7829.08517.8493556630611.38393.53391.85.3339TT0.3931.3919295.514610307595.27474538301090.509268734315919132152230WETL
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207415431.524.928.216.3922025684951.61693.75691.85.5569TT-0.535.519294.393357225964.82575554646710.46685854827859122153237.5WETL
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207415431.524.8928.19524.5779236303171.61693.82691.715.5369TT-0.535.519300.638635790057.38907343077060.46685854827859122152225WETL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207415433.0524.3528.720.3084326001480.66022.70021.674.3702TF1.0532.0519297.397439959426.03967586487240.540678029828649132152230WETL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207415431.5227.0129.26519.8909744094990.82742.78741.664.4474TF-0.4828.5219297.078634940135.90918352520310.467809263788919122152225WETL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207415431.5227.0129.26517.3029886679740.82742.71741.13.8174TF-0.4828.5219295.09467696145.10601985144250.467809263788919122152225DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207415436.3927.1131.7513.9208329481150.86951.91951.283.1995TF4.3940.3919292.482169146254.07159541698730.691977495672469132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207415436.2225.8731.04512.3049925445540.74722.08721.293.3772TF4.2240.2219291.226086844723.5835348274040.68479075664279132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207415436.2325.8731.0512.0514008885920.74722.08721.283.3672TF4.2340.2319291.028487550933.50730097347690.685215481712679132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207415433.1324.2428.68514.4491521118920.98091.92091.393.3109TF1.1337.1319292.891743830594.23203735892540.544471927632659132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207415433.3423.7828.5616.5619506081991.21092.08091.573.6509TF1.3442.3419294.524188949654.87789507030390.554410754530669132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20207415433.3723.7928.5816.7867214981691.21092.08091.693.7709TF1.3734.3719294.697342246434.94700221054140.555827948263579132153245DRYM
2019-12-06 20:00:12FORECAST2020741543626.8831.4420.8250783767241.08312.67311.474.1431TF43319297.79152490936.20153184616010.675385857772829132152230WETL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20207415435.9427.731.8220.4922519848211.00272.85271.534.3827TF3.9444.9419297.537712227256.0972177739480.672801037522539132152230WETL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20207415432.5527.6930.1220.691650957090.74312.59311.594.1831TF0.5538.5519297.689799215986.15969341886320.516895836746359132152230WETL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20207415433.3532.2432.79510.026233051640.32682.24681.784.0268TF1.3536.3519289.445896228572.90205201142850.554883230607419132153245WETM
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20207415433.3732.9233.14510.993220136190.15791.87791.863.7379TF1.3737.3719290.20257527233.19026079405780.555827948263579132153245DRYM