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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 14, 2019

[ Friday, December 13, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 15, 2019 ]

DAY 75 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/15/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.220
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 26

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.78 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.29 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 42 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 13.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-15 04:00:12OBSERVATION20207515527.0399223.0925.0649651.7042929166670.390000000000042.782.295.07TF-4.9600826.0399218319.37417387707 16.5130158361580.2195985398880490 12151210WETL
2019-12-15 00:00:13FORECAST20207615623.5523.5523.5550.0101045475550.00212.39212.294.6821TF-8.4522.5518318.1730282762615.9118664083080.108025202230069012151210WETL
2019-12-14 12:00:10FORECAST20207515529.5123.1626.33550.3838175156040.11472.50472.294.7947TF-2.4928.5118318.4384277896116.0441436357080.327912823316579022151212.5WETL
2019-12-14 08:00:10FORECAST20207515531.5522.1526.8550.3105805012120.20422.59422.294.8842TF-0.4530.5518318.3864369488316.0182064666080.430564061383679022151212.5WETL
2019-12-14 04:00:12FORECAST20207515526.923.825.3550.4418372995360.17162.56162.294.8516TF-5.125.918318.4796090771816.0646966242910.214143810756679012151210WETL
2019-12-14 00:00:12FORECAST20207515531.7823.4527.61525.4259695000140.16841.72842.294.0184TF-0.2226.7818300.148951546657.63157808748620.442587016303999022152225WETL
2019-12-13 20:00:11FORECAST20207515526.4520.2923.3725.3666865606980.10631.80632.294.0963TF-5.5528.4518300.104113215257.61264697550750.197143084802779012152220WETL
2019-12-13 16:00:10FORECAST20207515528.0320.1824.10525.4690491189540.13691.83692.294.1269TF-3.9730.0318300.181530348537.64533814104950.260397304626089022152225WETL
2019-12-13 12:00:12FORECAST20207515526.9520.1423.54526.0763694139580.2421.9422.294.232TF-5.0528.9518300.640434896737.83961104114010.216083947388589012152220WETL
2019-12-13 08:00:11FORECAST20207515526.652023.32525.89876927450.13331.90332.294.1933TF-5.3528.6518300.506309562597.78274357689290.204596064053879012152220WETL
2019-12-13 04:00:12FORECAST20207515530.5519.2324.8926.7055615476840.11792.13792.294.4279TF-1.4527.5518301.115120272248.04144837736880.379172206514889022152225WETL
2019-12-13 00:00:13FORECAST20207515530.7619.425.0830.4352578257590.17060.84062.293.1306FF-1.2424.7618303.91341497369.24968314142840.389821281556329022132215DRYL
2019-12-12 20:00:11FORECAST20207515531.0121.426.20528.9224903309130.10792.06792.294.3579TF-0.9928.0118302.781619235128.75719845470610.402606769421889022152225WETL
2019-12-12 16:00:11FORECAST20207515526.6720.1123.3929.0422875847090.1062.1362.294.426TF-5.3328.6718302.871405677868.79607846488130.205350453206819012152220WETL
2019-12-12 12:00:11FORECAST20207515526.6819.7923.23529.5519903994720.08932.06932.294.3593TF-5.3224.6818303.253115873528.96173316890410.205728265283059012152220WETL
2019-12-12 08:00:11FORECAST20207515531.719.1425.4230.4366668133650.15822.09822.294.3882TF-0.333.718303.91446709939.25014337486270.438398535940719022152225WETL
2019-12-12 04:00:12FORECAST20207515532.0919.6625.87530.6705477505730.09582.23582.294.5258TF0.09000000000000331.0918304.089059569559.32657802195470.458873873003849022152225WETL
2019-12-12 00:00:13FORECAST20207515532.1718.425.28516.6461558340290.11452.84451.944.7845TF0.1734.1718293.434294194544.88455298821050.463089285945319022153237.5WETL
2019-12-11 20:00:11FORECAST20207515531.6619.6825.6717.6187907434360.05982.68982.555.2398TF-0.3439.6618294.185546125685.18319357693170.436306849984189022152225WETL
2019-12-11 16:00:11FORECAST20207515531.6120.4426.02517.23417733250.07762.75762.555.3076TF-0.3939.6118293.888697014435.0649299203640.433694751660449022152225WETL
2019-12-11 12:00:11FORECAST20207515531.8420.0225.9316.8345266952420.1072.8072.555.357TT-0.1640.8418293.579934616784.94227924649370.445732619282549022153237.5WETL
2019-12-11 08:00:11FORECAST20207515525.8718.3522.1117.230377077680.13792.88792.745.6279TT-6.1333.8718293.885762486415.06376250540240.176474523729119012152220WETL
2019-12-11 04:00:12FORECAST20207515529.8718.5924.2318.2833259620190.14812.88812.865.7481TT-2.1335.8718294.697759252335.38805519268710.345350338049279022152225WETL
2019-12-11 00:00:13FORECAST20207515531.7618.7225.2415.0239575929950.07612.50612.424.9261TF-0.2433.7618292.177190618324.389657721490.441539275665849022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 20:00:11FORECAST20207515531.6419.1425.3914.9639418297240.06972.50972.985.4897TT-0.3639.6418292.130582669054.3714250457430.435261670727329022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 16:00:11FORECAST20207515531.7319.8125.7715.0414565055150.03442.43442.915.3444TF-0.2740.7318292.190778850754.39497489139620.439968433632139022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 12:00:11FORECAST20207515531.7319.8125.7714.5787407995550.03442.51443.015.5244TT-0.2739.7318291.831268222564.25453241662220.439968433632139022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 08:00:11FORECAST20207515530.5818.8124.69515.7495621720390.01582.30582.95.2058TF-1.4239.5818292.740129731384.61052887345520.380688112586529022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 04:00:12FORECAST20207515530.6919.0324.8615.4474368869890.08082.52083.135.6508TT-1.3133.6918292.505860711574.51846582241630.38626195367699022153237.5WETL
2019-12-10 00:00:13FORECAST20207515530.719.0324.86515.6998759684950.08082.80083.155.9508TT-1.324.718292.701615223124.59537905478130.3867698513789022153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 20:00:11FORECAST20207515529.1119.5924.3519.1066361827080.43083.60082.426.0208TT-2.8934.1118295.331155679195.64278494498090.308969662955379022152225WETL
2019-12-09 16:00:11FORECAST20207515526.4919.0822.78516.2334279573170.17863.06862.415.4786TT-5.5131.4918293.114946663084.75826036986810.198620419226069012153230WETL
2019-12-09 12:00:11FORECAST20207515526.4919.0822.78515.7456145721050.17863.11862.415.5286TT-5.5131.4918292.737069907374.60932507372880.198620419226069012153230WETL
2019-12-09 08:00:11FORECAST20207515530.1919.5924.8915.2904238902690.2423.7622.386.142TT-1.8137.1918292.384041265164.47067592969430.361132168378779022153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 04:00:12FORECAST20207515530.6619.3925.02515.0052129771630.06842.95842.325.2784TT-1.3433.6618292.1626344044.3839625532010.384739432397999022153237.5WETL
2019-12-09 00:00:13FORECAST20207515530.6719.3925.0316.8521785794250.06842.93842.034.9684TF-1.3329.6718293.593578740184.9476914187020.385246743368969022153237.5WETL
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207515531.0219.0525.03518.4712507045070.12883.36882.065.4288TT-0.9841.0218294.842451892265.44610884723360.403120461427049022152225WETL
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207515531.2919.2225.25517.0575268590280.12073.56072.095.6507TT-0.7145.2918293.752258906215.01068704619290.41705054766059022152225WETL
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207515531.319.2325.26525.5130896662870.12073.56072.075.6307TT-0.745.318300.214832164137.65940793215270.417568597341329022152225WETL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207515533.1322.5927.8620.736745387950.05762.03762.364.3976TF1.1344.1318296.58134515876.15013184137170.513862170466989032152230WETL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207515532.7723.127.93520.3605104706470.06222.11222.374.4822TF0.7740.7718296.293256364586.03268194859330.494804422883919022152225WETL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207515532.7723.1227.94517.7941924443280.06222.11221.743.8522TF0.7740.7718294.320826949025.23720143510450.494804422883919022152225DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207515529.7225.1927.45516.2263018515850.2892.1891.273.459TF-2.2848.7218293.109429909654.75608208525980.338042139939249022153237.5DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207515531.9224.228.0614.1841577463190.21722.28721.283.5672TF-0.07999999999999850.9218291.524359832074.13502750675260.449932041880179022153237.5DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207515529.5824.226.8913.8902508034240.19552.26551.273.5355TF-2.4248.5818291.295557783074.04616835553010.331275688783079022153237.5DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207515526.7225.3626.0415.1624480142930.07921.86921.493.3592TF-5.2842.7218292.284714494514.43175178889570.207243625207739012153230DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207515523.3822.8323.10517.09872939780.04661.98661.683.6666TF-8.6244.3818293.784087654775.02333461618860.103889466481499012152220DRYL