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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 12, 2019

[ Wednesday, December 11, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, December 13, 2019 ]

DAY 73 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/13/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.398
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 16

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 302.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-13 04:00:12OBSERVATION20207315330.6199426.4399828.5299625.1129247826091.562.332.264.59TF-1.3800615.6199420302.168229407 7.5883280167920.3977898614677691 22152225WETL
2019-12-13 00:00:12FORECAST20207415428.2328.2328.2328.1709618537280.04190.81192.263.0719FF-3.7713.2320304.45640245158.57682969958440.303028632132539122132215DRYL
2019-12-12 12:00:11FORECAST20207315330.0126.828.40528.1790187556561.32012.09012.264.3501TF-1.9915.0120304.462407575628.57945189346570.37275417160399122152225WETL
2019-12-12 08:00:10FORECAST20207315331.0926.8228.95528.7209857163711.29222.06222.264.3222TF-0.9116.0920304.86607470818.75605417709750.417381469892659122152225WETL
2019-12-12 04:00:12FORECAST20207315330.8627.6729.26529.3207694699451.52782.29782.264.5578TF-1.1415.8620305.312157577788.95198738870950.407766448190989122152225WETL
2019-12-12 00:00:13FORECAST20207315335.2527.6631.45515.5037238908822.12832.54832.264.8083TF3.2519.2520294.861386910124.57144952873690.59409941289399132153245WETL
2019-12-11 20:00:11FORECAST20207315333.2727.9530.6116.0248433863982.00483.03482.265.2948TT1.2725.2720295.262236656614.73153110033970.510168342856339132153245WETL
2019-12-11 16:00:11FORECAST20207315333.328.1230.7115.4833196836392.04673.07672.265.3367TT1.325.320294.845681015964.56518993651040.511453019942879132153245WETL
2019-12-11 12:00:11FORECAST20207315333.528.1530.82515.1195530820642.13.132.265.39TT1.525.520294.565539374194.45369930871480.520013854746139132153245WETL
2019-12-11 08:00:11FORECAST20207315333.9828.2831.1314.4469127036491.94273.16272.265.4227TT1.9823.9820294.046847489914.24806913646990.540514756355419132153245WETL
2019-12-11 04:00:12FORECAST20207315333.3828.0930.73515.5417903441611.85663.19662.265.4566TT1.3822.3820294.890685930884.58312921518340.514878208444639132153245WETL
2019-12-11 00:00:12FORECAST20207315333.5628.1930.87513.1372271912491.61272.51272.264.7727TF1.5617.5620293.034366100493.84965904230560.522580485988499132153245WETL
2019-12-10 20:00:11FORECAST20207315333.3628.4130.88513.1311331263551.77753.23752.265.4975TT1.3624.3620293.029647071733.84781130566780.514022004341519132153245WETL
2019-12-10 16:00:11FORECAST20207315334.0828.231.1413.7399082606421.90743.29742.265.5574TT2.0825.0820293.500700410334.03267269807220.544774070264329132153245WETL
2019-12-10 12:00:11FORECAST20207315334.1328.2831.20512.8745573882571.8063.2962.265.556TT2.1325.1320292.830897583013.77006819598730.546901829799069132153245WETL
2019-12-10 08:00:11FORECAST20207315333.8828.5331.20514.296285150821.79353.17352.265.4335TT1.8824.8820293.930572860114.20211528415210.536250787341679132153245WETL
2019-12-10 04:00:12FORECAST20207315334.128.7231.4113.4157569827671.87793.48792.265.7479TT2.121.120293.249971794763.93417035680180.545625331687949132153245WETL
2019-12-10 00:00:12FORECAST20207315334.6928.2931.4914.16569813712.21523.84522.266.1052TT2.699.6920293.82973220934.16230329018170.570626841244429132153245WETL
2019-12-09 20:00:11FORECAST20207315333.6128.7731.1913.0308610488551.51952.40952.274.6795TF1.6120.6120292.951989424313.81741666817390.52471863464729132153245WETL
2019-12-09 16:00:10FORECAST20207315333.5428.6931.11512.9292894042251.77032.65032.274.9203TF1.5420.5420292.873305134553.78664372085640.52172504102869132153245WETL
2019-12-09 12:00:11FORECAST20207315333.628.7531.17512.3750686917641.81532.69532.274.9653TF1.620.620292.443610395583.61900976711290.524291059879999132153245WETL
2019-12-09 08:00:11FORECAST20207315336.0428.6132.32512.2196022686882.15342.99342.285.2734TT4.0424.0420292.32296651773.57207038484940.626627218464959132153245WETH
2019-12-09 04:00:12FORECAST20207315334.9827.9931.48513.1071174576771.87332.66332.274.9333TF2.9818.9820293.011049474433.84053024185850.582818989360419132153245WETL
2019-12-09 00:00:13FORECAST20207315333.327.9930.64514.912620420331.84812.51812.14.6181TF1.315.320294.406062155914.39036585437520.511453019942879132153245WETL
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207315335.0429.5232.2814.2189226666671.85832.53832.124.6583TF3.0425.0420293.870836783044.17852670220670.585331996594299132153245WETM
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207315336.5129.8233.16514.2280521.81812.53812.114.6481TF4.5129.5120293.877886683584.18130985338410.645575637280199132153245WETM
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207315336.5129.8633.18516.8835924396321.81812.51812.114.6281TF4.5129.5120295.921637572664.99622032284530.645575637280199132153245WETM
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207315338.2830.0834.1817.0108137444641.32032.31032.114.4203TF6.2825.2820296.019203734445.03552753951120.713443874038389142152235WETL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207315337.8730.3334.115.6396036336991.21752.21752.114.3275TF5.8722.8720294.965957957924.61315066789630.698274690010199132153245WETM
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207315337.8730.3334.112.940101342711.21752.09751.63.6975TF5.8722.8720292.881681761373.78991864341560.698274690010199132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207315333.8930.0531.9711.6312333494321.03331.28331.763.0433FF1.8929.8920291.865953355983.39476101023780.536677379854689132143236DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207315333.9731.5732.7711.3068303837531.32481.59481.753.3448TF1.9729.9720291.613682421793.29722644472490.540088560910099132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207315333.9531.632.77511.0135196769891.32481.58481.753.3348TF1.9529.9520291.385411277343.20917896069050.539236032307799132153245DRYM
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207315338.3332.0135.1710.8445317264790.80591.07591.963.0359FF6.3330.3320291.253817966243.1585112693930.715268771232899142143242DRYM
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207315338.0229.8133.91511.1516505381260.7310.9912.163.151FF6.0235.0220291.492933789173.25062733194980.703866189146019142143242DRYM
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20207315338.0329.833.91511.0622497074060.7310.9912.283.271TF6.0327.0320291.423347551223.22379784117970.704237261141629142143242DRYM
2019-12-06 20:00:12FORECAST20207315332.1928.7330.4615.0726799522541.17751.60752.163.7675TF0.1923.1920294.529422905974.43934772798360.463953249929049122153237.5DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20207315333.2128.6230.91516.1024958485191.41831.87832.214.0883TF1.2135.2120295.321922211644.75542002638950.507598685516469132153245WETL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20207315333.2228.6330.92515.9468000896081.41831.87832.274.1483TF1.2232.2220295.202238834214.7075310886940.508026986520549132153245WETL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20207315334.3732.6633.51510.0581037183071.85161.93162.484.4116TF2.3729.3720290.640671710762.92329402082520.557095280536229132153245WETM
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20207315338.9431.3735.15511.0167268028571.51761.79762.494.2876TF6.9429.9420291.387908165573.21014097791610.737074628593119142153252.5WETM
2019-12-06 00:00:13FORECAST20207315338.9431.3735.15511.3946158077991.51761.79762.584.3776TF6.9430.9420291.681968993053.32360397473810.737074628593119142153252.5WETM
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20207315338.7830.9534.86513.9574226148690.9221.6022.884.482TF6.7833.7820293.668830452644.09885997544170.731438542564719142153252.5WETM
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20207315338.1430.4634.314.725940244160.78861.61862.734.3486TF6.1434.1420294.262121025964.3332864103480.708304891489989142153252.5WETM
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20207315334.730.4632.5814.2363897679940.75951.58952.654.2395TF2.732.720293.884325174654.18385179989010.571048453718359132153245WETM
2019-12-05 08:00:12FORECAST20207315336.6432.3234.487.47408746856430.02640.87642.243.1164FF4.6448.6420288.617372846082.15715148959880.650756021614369132134236DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20207315333.4431.1132.2757.94835257495740.00050.90052.353.2505FF1.4443.4420288.989720703232.29699219068770.517446393453299132134236DRYL