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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 11, 2019

[ Tuesday, December 10, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 12, 2019 ]

DAY 72 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/12/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.465
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.77 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-12 04:00:11OBSERVATION20207215232.929.331.127.4671366666670.420000000000020.770000000000022.953.72TF0.917.921305.04630059469 8.37874842809530.4653504268624590 22132215DRYL
2019-12-12 00:00:13FORECAST20207315332.0632.0632.0613.9996720.06660.41662.953.3666FF0.06000000000000217.0621294.855237647944.12787661455320.429882858157539022123215DRYL
2019-12-11 12:00:11FORECAST20207215239.7331.0235.37513.8587413333330.68171.03172.953.9817TF7.7324.7321294.746739146844.08481881667950.739718727703979042143242DRYM
2019-12-11 08:00:11FORECAST20207215237.5330.0833.80513.8534933333330.86951.21952.954.1695TF5.5322.5321294.742698111194.0832160033320.658182566492949032143236WETM
2019-12-11 04:00:12FORECAST20207215236.8631.1634.0114.2801996666670.98711.33712.954.2871TF4.8621.8621295.071092334024.21367411439130.63154682240559032143236WETM
2019-12-11 00:00:12FORECAST20207215235.8733.0534.4612.7341560.88580.89582.953.8458TF3.8716.8721293.879560065333.74230816308330.591040929478999032133227DRYL
2019-12-10 20:00:11FORECAST20207215237.7430.8634.312.7697986666671.03951.45952.954.4095TF5.7423.7421293.907082511443.75313427037850.666378912788459032143236WETM
2019-12-10 16:00:11FORECAST20207215238.1331.5734.8512.7524693333330.96621.38622.954.3362TF6.1324.1321293.893701510673.74787041577470.681389680114789032143236WETM
2019-12-10 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.2231.5334.87512.5807066666671.071.492.954.44TF6.2224.2221293.761041565943.69572149403560.684813003151289032143236WETM
2019-12-10 08:00:11FORECAST20207215237.5932.9635.27512.4287881.07071.38072.954.3307TF5.5923.5921293.643659782133.64963479497620.660532204206839032143236WETM
2019-12-10 04:00:11FORECAST2020721523632.8834.4412.7459334166671.25661.60662.954.5566TF42021293.88865459083.74588522332810.596426052139239032153245WETM
2019-12-10 00:00:12FORECAST20207215235.9532.2534.112.5473053333331.26181.63182.954.5818TF3.957.9521293.735237508663.68558571218040.594356953537539032153245WETM
2019-12-09 20:00:11FORECAST20207215238.1131.0834.59512.5157080.63850.89852.953.8485TF6.1120.1121293.710825108753.67599892350020.680626822538799032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 16:00:10FORECAST20207215238.2231.935.0612.4158320.6470.8872.953.837TF6.2220.2221293.633647076713.64570603165180.684813003151289032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.1132.4335.2711.9327426666670.63770.88772.953.8377TF6.1120.1121293.260068837423.49939693584580.680626822538799032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 08:00:11FORECAST20207215238.3131.7135.0112.1749160.59440.86442.953.8144TF6.3121.3121293.447401411173.57269746259930.688220541602479032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 04:00:12FORECAST20207215238.532.5435.5212.3295220.46810.79812.953.7481TF6.516.521293.56693624313.61953999888190.695361323552759032133227DRYL
2019-12-09 00:00:13FORECAST20207215238.4832.7435.6114.1030840.40860.67862.783.4586TF6.4815.4821294.934826895784.15949063823660.694613091233369032133227DRYL
2019-12-08 20:00:11FORECAST20207215235.831.733.7514.2860533333330.29350.69352.83.4935TF3.822.821295.075594855644.21546568547270.588134045903539032133227DRYL
2019-12-08 16:00:11FORECAST20207215237.8630.5634.2114.3946213333330.31810.71812.83.5181TF5.8625.8621295.159091024194.24870334838410.671027463007849032133227DRYL
2019-12-08 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.9431.5935.26514.6443586583690.38570.69572.83.4957TF6.9425.9421295.351068619074.32522697899020.711611711124219042133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 08:00:11FORECAST20207215233.5330.6432.08514.9693222395840.72470.99472.83.7947TF1.5319.5321295.600691740454.42494200890670.492148876228159022143230DRYL
2019-12-08 04:00:12FORECAST20207215237.4827.7132.59514.4097121494570.73550.99552.83.7955TF5.4818.4821295.170695064564.25332475083560.656219841444669032143236DRYL
2019-12-08 00:00:13FORECAST20207215237.4827.2632.3711.6812457383580.67080.88082.293.1708FF5.4818.4821293.065402009643.42336897828520.656219841444669032133227DRYL
2019-12-07 20:00:11FORECAST20207215238.8930.934.89511.277946607050.01630.24632.452.6963FF6.8928.8921292.752975612773.30165242801590.709785779461919042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 16:00:11FORECAST20207215238.9930.9334.9611.230853725030.02440.27442.442.7144FF6.9928.9921292.716472987513.28745589102920.713432214665329042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.9830.9334.95510.9343165512690.02440.26442.442.7044FF6.9828.9821292.486520816013.19814020558160.713068549916339042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:11FORECAST20207215239.6630.4435.0511.1390210598120.1330.2732.652.923FF7.6624.6621292.645279110343.25978192706460.73728632763149042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20207215239.7630.2535.00510.9987622528560.13910.25912.853.1091FF7.7629.7621292.536510492733.21753952918960.740757626025449042123221DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20207215239.7730.2435.00510.9011837998130.13910.25912.973.2291FF7.7721.7721292.460816994653.18816912030230.741103449254879042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 20:00:11FORECAST20207215239.3131.4535.3810.9372933153450.41230.43232.853.2823FF7.3124.3121292.488830032723.199036125530.72495258384149042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20207215238.9131.0234.96511.2723421184390.43360.46362.93.3636FF6.9134.9121292.748631691573.29996273113240.710516801212659042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.9231.0334.97510.9443370396080.43360.46362.963.4236FF6.9231.9221292.494294113293.2011561369380.710881987832379042123221DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:11FORECAST20207215238.8530.6134.7310.2590583849740.06510.07513.173.2451FF6.8527.8521291.962239649992.99525766277690.708321150000129042113210.5DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:12FORECAST20207215237.9930.334.14511.293340136190.19660.27663.183.4566FF5.9923.9921292.764906495143.30629366898960.676033712657429032123218DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20207215237.9930.3234.15511.6724318077990.19660.27663.273.5466FF5.9924.9921293.058577484163.42070626137450.676033712657429032123218DRYL
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20207215239.229.9834.5913.7700470354590.65840.67843.574.2484TF7.228.221294.678436020674.057735924340.721018261075829042133231.5WETM
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20207215238.2529.3833.81513.4405021701460.77750.82753.424.2475TF6.2529.2521294.424519988023.95721339984310.685950615075679032133227WETM
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.2529.3833.81512.7834452709840.77750.82753.344.1675TF6.2531.2521293.917619445323.7572798023570.685950615075679032133227WETM
2019-12-05 08:00:12FORECAST20207215240.6634.2337.4457.55877546856430.70540.85542.923.7754TF8.6644.6621289.856686195072.19096160901060.770901554589849042134242DRYM
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20207215240.1634.2537.2057.95890324162410.76230.91233.033.9423TF8.1643.1621290.169599137892.30943176319930.754402343330079042134242DRYM
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20207215240.1634.2537.2057.93257638572960.76230.91232.943.8523TF8.1644.1621290.149020452092.30162926798090.754402343330079042134242DRYM
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST2020721524233.9737.9858.69010.08550.33553.824.1555TF106421290.740597870752.52656486955660.811915950735059042123221WETM
2019-12-04 16:00:12FORECAST20207215242.9236.0239.478.30621005106820.20380.41383.573.9838TF10.9265.9221290.44094666822.41246351045710.837267646166619042124228DRYL
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20207215238.3436.3437.348.1860119214540.40210.62213.544.1621TF6.3455.3421290.347064089612.37678452799670.689352838483659032134236WETM
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20207215238.8934.736.7958.5468520.12830.50833.493.9983TF6.8954.8921290.628817612472.48396149106880.709785779461919042134242DRYM
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20207215239.437.7838.598.42053508333330.00510.23513.814.0451TF7.451.421290.530215382522.44641987139690.728151140436189042124228WETM