Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 6, 2019

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DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.43°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.934 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 36 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.50 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 12 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.01 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.57 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-07 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	67	147	45.42998	35.15	40.28999	11.955356666667	0.049999999999955	0.21999999999995	2.5	2.72	F	F	13.42998	36.42998	26	299.01075518799	3.5747802254417	0.93350801935076	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-07 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	68	148	35.96	35.96	35.96	11.978352	0.0116	0.1816	2.5	2.6816	F	F	3.96	26.96	26	299.02821224501	3.5818651842015	0.66603321382938	92	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2019-12-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	44.28	33.4	38.84	11.625096	0.0742	0.2442	2.5	2.7442	F	F	12.28	35.28	26	298.75992313837	3.4731127874362	0.91495071027461	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-06 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	67	147	44.16	34.08	39.12	11.505594666667	0.1608	0.3308	2.5	2.8308	F	F	12.16	35.16	26	298.66911035609	3.4363657232111	0.9128108074606	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	38.95	33.32	36.135	12.110742916667	0.1921	0.3621	2.5	2.8621	F	F	6.95	29.95	26	299.12869784004	3.622670758538	0.77865079222313	92	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	DRY	L
2019-12-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	42.85	33.15	38	12.512373333333	0.1857	0.3557	2.5	2.8557	F	F	10.85	26.85	26	299.43333136115	3.7466216304344	0.88679443599881	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.1	33.03	38.065	12.481432	0.1948	0.3648	2.5	2.8648	F	F	11.1	36.1	26	299.4098736494	3.7370639780836	0.89214377660349	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	42.89	32.89	37.89	12.525657333333	0.1836	0.3536	2.5	2.8536	F	F	10.89	35.89	26	299.44340186256	3.7507254424581	0.88766278023474	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	42.62	33.6	38.11	12.138070666667	0.1989	0.3689	2.5	2.8689	F	F	10.62	35.62	26	299.14943557883	3.6310969889493	0.88170878054524	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	46.37	35.68	41.025	11.163114325696	0.1706	0.3506	2.5	2.8506	F	F	14.37	41.37	26	298.40869613467	3.3311703907331	0.94621567720882	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.98	35.74	40.86	11.606911583333	0.1969	0.3769	2.5	2.8769	F	F	13.98	37.98	26	298.74610601227	3.4675196383495	0.9411979366278	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.76	36.69	41.225	11.750630666667	0.2957	0.3057	2.5	2.8057	F	F	13.76	37.76	26	298.85529115571	3.5117381491499	0.93821000929035	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	46.32	35.82	41.07	12.771130666667	0.3602	0.4702	2.5	2.9702	F	F	14.32	50.32	26	299.6294322268	3.8266066305476	0.94559192471404	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	46.31	37.26	41.785	12.633425333333	0.3453	0.4553	2.5	2.9553	F	F	14.31	50.31	26	299.52508742163	3.7840278274013	0.94546649252649	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.43	36.91	41.17	12.082658666667	0.315	0.445	2.5	2.945	F	F	13.43	49.43	26	299.10738452929	3.6140124319468	0.93350831243997	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.66	37.02	41.34	11.9045	0.236	0.426	2.5	2.926	F	F	13.66	49.66	26	298.97214339702	3.5591138810698	0.9368134012253	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.66	37.11	41.385	11.583220416667	0.2289	0.4689	2.5	2.9689	F	F	13.66	46.66	26	298.72810371653	3.4602334700014	0.9368134012253	92	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	DRY	L
2019-12-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.19	36.77	40.98	10.551681333333	0.2698	0.5698	2.42	2.9898	F	F	13.19	43.19	26	297.94321285636	3.1438018374899	0.92991894857689	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.19	36.99	41.09	11.717594666667	0.2993	0.8393	2.46	3.2993	F	F	13.19	55.19	26	298.83019683073	3.5015711206228	0.92991894857689	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-03 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	67	147	45.08	36.71	40.895	11.602685333333	0.3706	0.9506	2.46	3.4106	T	F	13.08	57.08	26	298.7428946752	3.4662198024855	0.92822498162644	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	46.6	36.57	41.585	10.853314666667	0.4047	0.9647	2.46	3.4247	T	F	14.6	57.6	26	298.17293633649	3.2361647031439	0.9490125530238	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	42.97	34.54	38.755	10.922499060675	0.3373	1.2673	2.52	3.7873	T	F	10.97	54.97	26	298.22560225448	3.257368860494	0.88938521271119	92	5	3	1	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-12-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	41.61	34.52	38.065	11.169969933158	0.5059	1.3959	2.54	3.9359	T	F	9.61	54.61	26	298.4139112041	3.3332744157859	0.85747892545431	92	5	3	1	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-12-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	67	147	41.62	34.9	38.26	7.8780490595742	0.5347	1.2347	2.54	3.7747	T	F	9.62	48.62	26	295.89926613097	2.3311089352718	0.85773414720888	92	5	3	1	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-12-02 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	42.88	34.67	38.775	8.7995773333333	0.354	0.964	2.56	3.524	T	F	10.88	61.88	26	296.60532710255	2.6100015133175	0.8874461402612	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-02 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.39	35.07	39.23	8.7023253333333	0.3491	0.9291	2.57	3.4991	T	F	11.39	63.39	26	296.53089207526	2.5805082942224	0.89811872892625	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-12-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.39	35.08	39.235	7.8646431533286	0.3491	1.1591	2.59	3.7491	T	F	11.39	63.39	26	295.88898252833	2.3270612605868	0.89811872892625	92	5	3	1	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-12-02 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.76	37.18	40.47	8.0420980126284	0.2149	1.0849	2.61	3.6949	T	F	11.76	60.76	26	296.02507889374	2.3806626986595	0.90538843164727	92	5	3	1	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-12-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.18	37.07	38.625	8.8875150926725	0.178	0.998	2.61	3.608	T	F	8.18	53.18	26	296.67261734046	2.636682364196	0.81779582597451	92	4	3	1	4	3	2	48	DRY	M
2019-12-02 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.2	37.08	38.64	8.190807824951	0.178	0.848	2.09	2.938	F	F	8.2	50.2	26	296.13908243918	2.4256183137167	0.81839441079844	92	4	3	1	3	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-12-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.22	35.57	39.395	7.9841389625604	0.3969	1.1969	2.1	3.2969	T	F	11.22	72.22	26	295.98063480787	2.3631505185329	0.89464598840089	92	5	3	1	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-12-01 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	41.21	36.46	38.835	7.9086746666667	0.4293	1.2793	2.1	3.3793	T	F	9.21	69.21	26	295.92275756504	2.3403568160448	0.84701659321616	92	4	3	1	4	4	2	64	DRY	H
2019-12-01 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.9	36.6	38.75	7.5649507177749	0.4293	1.2593	2.11	3.3693	T	F	8.9	66.9	26	295.6589985452	2.2366457532611	0.83856745931674	92	4	3	1	4	4	2	64	DRY	H
2019-12-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	39.96	36.64	38.3	8.2036056478787	0.6365	1.4765	2.24	3.7165	T	F	7.96	61.96	26	296.14889146204	2.429488718611	0.81113042352284	92	4	3	1	4	4	2	64	DRY	H
2019-12-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.92	36.86	38.89	8.4569206130142	0.6038	1.2538	2.58	3.8338	T	F	8.92	65.92	26	296.34298171627	2.5061490705984	0.8391215538375	92	4	3	1	4	3	2	48	DRY	M
2019-12-01 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.96	36.9	38.93	8.1562467231718	0.6038	1.2938	2.59	3.8838	T	F	8.96	61.96	26	296.11259113437	2.4151673511297	0.84022602334967	92	4	3	1	4	4	2	64	DRY	H
2019-11-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	41.31	36.79	39.05	8.0293411107289	0.6675	1.9075	2.33	4.2375	T	F	9.31	84.31	26	296.01529722383	2.3768077954039	0.84967859217936	92	5	3	1	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.19	36.34	38.265	8.1151170852995	0.6118	1.9718	2.35	4.3218	T	F	8.19	78.19	26	296.08106197411	2.4027324846597	0.81809527201511	92	4	3	1	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	40.22	36.36	38.29	7.873209007981	0.6118	1.9718	2.43	4.4018	T	F	8.22	79.22	26	295.89555339235	2.3296475363902	0.81899176632597	92	4	3	1	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-30 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	44.41	34.68	39.545	8.1557762681315	0.5704	0.7804	2.27	3.0504	F	F	12.41	79.41	26	296.11223051154	2.4150251023095	0.91722440145389	92	5	3	1	3	4	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.2	35.18	39.19	7.9509673968623	0.6231	1.2431	2.41	3.6531	T	F	11.2	77.2	26	295.9551952855	2.353130108647	0.8942318858121	92	5	3	1	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.22	35.19	39.205	8.9085554803851	0.6231	1.2431	2.36	3.6031	T	F	11.22	69.22	26	296.68871528024	2.6430678804782	0.89464598840089	92	5	3	1	4	3	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	43.47	35.1	39.285	9.9159937356399	0.1207	0.8807	2.25	3.1307	F	F	11.47	85.47	26	297.45849746371	2.949596597463	0.89972391421295	92	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	DRY	M
2019-11-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	39.12	35.62	37.37	9.7524824533252	0.2602	1.0902	2.2	3.2902	T	F	7.12	85.12	26	297.33369258724	2.8997416197395	0.78433058709257	92	4	3	1	4	3	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	38.4	35.65	37.025	9.8940534385658	0.2104	1.0404	2.15	3.1904	F	F	6.4	83.4	26	297.44175388659	2.9429046078147	0.75970126955897	92	4	3	1	4	3	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-29 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	67	147	38.98	35.32	37.15	9.9200548227714	0.0871	0.3371	2.05	2.3871	F	F	6.98	86.98	26	297.46159655029	2.950835345448	0.77965926881252	92	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-29 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	67	147	38.85	38.02	38.435	9.6098233356026	0.0645	0.1545	2	2.1545	F	F	6.85	83.85	26	297.22476140105	2.8562774480307	0.77527023950997	92	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	DRY	L