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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 6, 2019

[ Thursday, December 5, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 7, 2019 ]

DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.934
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 36

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 12 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-07 04:00:12OBSERVATION20206714745.4299835.1540.2899911.9553566666670.0499999999999550.219999999999952.52.72FF13.4299836.4299826299.01075518799 3.57478022544170.9335080193507692 53123227DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20206814835.9635.9635.9611.9783520.01160.18162.52.6816FF3.9626.9626299.028212245013.58186518420150.666033213829389233123221DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20206714744.2833.438.8411.6250960.07420.24422.52.7442FF12.2835.2826298.759923138373.47311278743620.914950710274619253123227DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:10FORECAST20206714744.1634.0839.1211.5055946666670.16080.33082.52.8308FF12.1635.1626298.669110356093.43636572321110.91281080746069253123227DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:11FORECAST20206714738.9533.3236.13512.1107429166670.19210.36212.52.8621FF6.9529.9526299.128697840043.6226707585380.778650792223139243123224DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20206714742.8533.153812.5123733333330.18570.35572.52.8557FF10.8526.8526299.433331361153.74662163043440.886794435998819253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20206714743.133.0338.06512.4814320.19480.36482.52.8648FF11.136.126299.40987364943.73706397808360.892143776603499253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20206714742.8932.8937.8912.5256573333330.18360.35362.52.8536FF10.8935.8926299.443401862563.75072544245810.887662780234749253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20206714742.6233.638.1112.1380706666670.19890.36892.52.8689FF10.6235.6226299.149435578833.63109698894930.881708780545249253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20206714746.3735.6841.02511.1631143256960.17060.35062.52.8506FF14.3741.3726298.408696134673.33117039073310.946215677208829253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20206714745.9835.7440.8611.6069115833330.19690.37692.52.8769FF13.9837.9826298.746106012273.46751963834950.94119793662789253123227DRYL
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20206714745.7636.6941.22511.7506306666670.29570.30572.52.8057FF13.7637.7626298.855291155713.51173814914990.938210009290359253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST20206714746.3235.8241.0712.7711306666670.36020.47022.52.9702FF14.3250.3226299.62943222683.82660663054760.945591924714049253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 16:00:11FORECAST20206714746.3137.2641.78512.6334253333330.34530.45532.52.9553FF14.3150.3126299.525087421633.78402782740130.945466492526499253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20206714745.4336.9141.1712.0826586666670.3150.4452.52.945FF13.4349.4326299.107384529293.61401243194680.933508312439979253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20206714745.6637.0241.3411.90450.2360.4262.52.926FF13.6649.6626298.972143397023.55911388106980.93681340122539253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20206714745.6637.1141.38511.5832204166670.22890.46892.52.9689FF13.6646.6626298.728103716533.46023347000140.93681340122539253123227DRYL
2019-12-04 00:00:13FORECAST20206714745.1936.7740.9810.5516813333330.26980.56982.422.9898FF13.1943.1926297.943212856363.14380183748990.929918948576899253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20206714745.1936.9941.0911.7175946666670.29930.83932.463.2993FF13.1955.1926298.830196830733.50157112062280.929918948576899253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 16:00:10FORECAST20206714745.0836.7140.89511.6026853333330.37060.95062.463.4106TF13.0857.0826298.74289467523.46621980248550.928224981626449253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206714746.636.5741.58510.8533146666670.40470.96472.463.4247TF14.657.626298.172936336493.23616470314390.94901255302389253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206714742.9734.5438.75510.9224990606750.33731.26732.523.7873TF10.9754.9726298.225602254483.2573688604940.889385212711199253143254DRYMH
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206714741.6134.5238.06511.1699699331580.50591.39592.543.9359TF9.6154.6126298.41391120413.33327441578590.857478925454319253143254DRYMH
2019-12-03 00:00:13FORECAST20206714741.6234.938.267.87804905957420.53471.23472.543.7747TF9.6248.6226295.899266130972.33110893527180.857734147208889253144272DRYH
2019-12-02 20:00:11FORECAST20206714742.8834.6738.7758.79957733333330.3540.9642.563.524TF10.8861.8826296.605327102552.61000151331750.88744614026129253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-02 16:00:12FORECAST20206714743.3935.0739.238.70232533333330.34910.92912.573.4991TF11.3963.3926296.530892075262.58050829422240.898118728926259253133240.5DRYM
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206714743.3935.0839.2357.86464315332860.34911.15912.593.7491TF11.3963.3926295.888982528332.32706126058680.898118728926259253144272DRYH
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206714743.7637.1840.478.04209801262840.21491.08492.613.6949TF11.7660.7626296.025078893742.38066269865950.905388431647279253144272DRYH
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206714740.1837.0738.6258.88751509267250.1780.9982.613.608TF8.1853.1826296.672617340462.6366823641960.817795825974519243143248DRYM
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206714740.237.0838.648.1908078249510.1780.8482.092.938FF8.250.226296.139082439182.42561831371670.818394410798449243134248DRYM
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206714743.2235.5739.3957.98413896256040.39691.19692.13.2969TF11.2272.2226295.980634807872.36315051853290.894645988400899253144272DRYH
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206714741.2136.4638.8357.90867466666670.42931.27932.13.3793TF9.2169.2126295.922757565042.34035681604480.847016593216169243144264DRYH
2019-12-01 12:00:12FORECAST20206714740.936.638.757.56495071777490.42931.25932.113.3693TF8.966.926295.65899854522.23664575326110.838567459316749243144264DRYH
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206714739.9636.6438.38.20360564787870.63651.47652.243.7165TF7.9661.9626296.148891462042.4294887186110.811130423522849243144264DRYH
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206714740.9236.8638.898.45692061301420.60381.25382.583.8338TF8.9265.9226296.342981716272.50614907059840.83912155383759243143248DRYM
2019-12-01 00:00:13FORECAST20206714740.9636.938.938.15624672317180.60381.29382.593.8838TF8.9661.9626296.112591134372.41516735112970.840226023349679243144264DRYH
2019-11-30 20:00:11FORECAST20206714741.3136.7939.058.02934111072890.66751.90752.334.2375TF9.3184.3126296.015297223832.37680779540390.849678592179369253154290WETM
2019-11-30 16:00:11FORECAST20206714740.1936.3438.2658.11511708529950.61181.97182.354.3218TF8.1978.1926296.081061974112.40273248465970.818095272015119243154280WETM
2019-11-30 12:00:11FORECAST20206714740.2236.3638.297.8732090079810.61181.97182.434.4018TF8.2279.2226295.895553392352.32964753639020.818991766325979243154280WETM
2019-11-30 08:00:12FORECAST20206714744.4134.6839.5458.15577626813150.57040.78042.273.0504FF12.4179.4126296.112230511542.41502510230950.917224401453899253134254DRYMH
2019-11-30 04:00:12FORECAST20206714743.235.1839.197.95096739686230.62311.24312.413.6531TF11.277.226295.95519528552.3531301086470.89423188581219253144272DRYH
2019-11-30 00:00:13FORECAST20206714743.2235.1939.2058.90855548038510.62311.24312.363.6031TF11.2269.2226296.688715280242.64306788047820.894645988400899253143254DRYMH
2019-11-29 20:00:11FORECAST20206714743.4735.139.2859.91599373563990.12070.88072.253.1307FF11.4785.4726297.458497463712.9495965974630.899723914212959253133240.5DRYM
2019-11-29 16:00:11FORECAST20206714739.1235.6237.379.75248245332520.26021.09022.23.2902TF7.1285.1226297.333692587242.89974161973950.784330587092579243143248DRYM
2019-11-29 12:00:11FORECAST20206714738.435.6537.0259.89405343856580.21041.04042.153.1904FF6.483.426297.441753886592.94290460781470.759701269558979243143248DRYM
2019-11-29 08:00:11FORECAST20206714738.9835.3237.159.92005482277140.08710.33712.052.3871FF6.9886.9826297.461596550292.9508353454480.779659268812529243123224DRYL
2019-11-29 04:00:12FORECAST20206714738.8538.0238.4359.60982333560260.06450.154522.1545FF6.8583.8526297.224761401052.85627744803070.775270239509979243123224DRYL