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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 7, 2019

[ Friday, December 6, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 8, 2019 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.602
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 37

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 31.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-08 04:00:12OBSERVATION20206814834.6699430.8600632.76514.5062045833330.519999999999980.569999999999982.242.81FF2.6699436.6699425299.81045368067 4.34911177731380.6021774781674290 33133231.5DRYL
2019-12-08 00:00:12FORECAST20206914931.1931.1931.19120.00270.05272.242.2927FF-0.8133.1925297.906834715063.57488201658070.46528888747194902311329DRYL
2019-12-07 12:00:11FORECAST20206814839.3232.0135.66511.7737346666670.15560.20562.242.4456FF7.3241.3225297.734374906283.50544553129240.764700048412979043123224DRYL
2019-12-07 08:00:10FORECAST20206814838.8732.0335.4511.7555306666670.33850.38852.242.6285FF6.8740.8725297.720495479213.4998624147010.750714035887679043123224DRYL
2019-12-07 04:00:12FORECAST20206814835.6832.1333.90511.7853980.54230.59232.242.8323FF3.6837.6825297.743267141193.50902290507920.640369235115899033133231.5DRYL
2019-12-07 00:00:12FORECAST20206814835.7132.1233.91511.7700720.71330.72332.242.9633FF3.7128.7125297.731582400453.50432216152730.641484518125189033133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 20:00:11FORECAST20206814833.9931.3432.66511.9205891332480.51950.58952.242.8295FF1.9934.9925297.846318910263.55050359257960.575879087682359033133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 16:00:11FORECAST20206814838.5131.9935.2511.8527310023230.56920.63922.242.8792FF6.5139.5125297.794597304813.52967925579910.739215267405419043133236DRYL
2019-12-06 12:00:11FORECAST20206814838.8331.8735.3511.4280920799120.6450.7152.242.955FF6.8339.8325297.470734135153.39952294077550.749449825168019043133236DRYL
2019-12-06 08:00:10FORECAST20206814838.6932.4735.5811.2310040.75290.91292.243.1529FF6.6939.6925297.320300475493.33920548392140.74499851353979043133236DRYL
2019-12-06 04:00:11FORECAST20206814835.1332.6533.8911.877316250.71690.90692.243.1469FF3.1331.1325297.813337260443.53722319011020.619719370896579033133231.5DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20206814838.5932.5735.5812.2278333333330.82121.01122.243.2512TF6.5931.5925298.080389537193.64487732319580.741793892938739043143248DRYM
2019-12-05 20:00:11FORECAST20206814835.7931.9233.85512.2289813333331.08431.27432.243.5143TF3.7937.7925298.081263785913.64523021065430.644452692508079033143242DRYM
2019-12-05 16:00:11FORECAST20206814838.7532.4535.612.2285440.93761.11762.243.3576TF6.7540.7525298.080930739083.64509577710380.746911263629619043143248DRYM
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20206814839.1332.4335.7811.8286573333330.86941.06942.243.3094TF7.1341.1325297.776246162913.52229317786740.758848190498659043143248DRYM
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20206814843.336.6839.9910.0873836590290.50340.68342.242.9234FF11.350.325296.445908516852.99036361335890.868126376615789053133240.5DRYM
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20206814843.893639.94510.562122250.50950.71952.242.9595FF11.8947.8925296.809193643893.13493498819070.880268124973519053133240.5DRYM
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20206814844.535.9140.20510.6985706666670.43710.74712.072.8171FF12.548.525296.913527306973.17655035378290.891971881487989053133240.5DRYM
2019-12-04 20:00:11FORECAST20206814844.8636.6840.7711.6464186666670.87621.24622.173.4162TF12.8660.8625297.63729085723.46640850013540.898481261472139053143254DRYMH
2019-12-04 16:00:12FORECAST20206814844.8136.940.85511.4790840.77291.13292.173.3029TF12.8160.8125297.509643056773.41513818345860.897594608040849053143254DRYMH
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20206814842.4939.0240.75510.9424760.75771.10772.173.2777TF10.4957.4925297.099936562043.25100892543160.850117944311699053143254DRYMH
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20206814841.8636.6539.25510.9265680.78731.05732.233.2873TF9.8657.8625297.087782092863.24614985300680.835029642319259043143248DRYM
2019-12-04 04:00:12FORECAST20206814842.1436.3139.22510.6356830833330.811.082.273.35TF10.1455.1425296.865445554733.15736679731270.841852684552059043143248DRYM
2019-12-04 00:00:13FORECAST20206814842.1535.9739.069.60583866666670.74481.05482.253.3048TF10.1551.1525296.076967113472.8440675790080.842092898303249043143248DRYM
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20206814843.7535.5539.6510.7026533333331.34811.69812.524.2181TF11.7564.7525296.916648512483.17779595792430.877460726734129053153267.5WETM
2019-12-03 16:00:10FORECAST20206814841.8638.1540.00510.5942493333331.26971.69972.554.2497TF9.8664.8625296.833762491783.14473089038930.835029642319259043153260WETMH
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206814841.8738.1540.019.8433481.26971.74972.514.2597TF9.8765.8725296.258994101712.91618037707310.835276548927219043153260WETMH
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206814840.763738.8810.0716670606750.92471.37472.914.2847TF8.7661.7625296.433874181132.98558328625850.806417204748179043143248WETM
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206814843.0134.8938.9510.3278062071351.14431.76432.894.6543TF11.0164.0125296.629942275343.06353655905330.861858025485749053153267.5WETM
2019-12-03 00:00:13FORECAST20206814843.0234.8938.9557.03542054352191.14431.78432.74.4843TF11.0258.0225294.099959390772.06911689614680.862077492071169053154290WETM
2019-12-02 20:00:11FORECAST20206814843.1935.0339.117.8666360.54680.91682.723.6368TF11.1971.1925294.740691922712.31861773774410.865772154004399053134254DRYMH
2019-12-02 16:00:12FORECAST20206814843.5135.7539.637.74768133333330.35620.74622.683.4262TF11.5172.5125294.64908005872.28284717745460.872541565855849053134254DRYMH
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206814843.5235.7639.646.90753915332860.35620.74622.933.6762TF11.5272.5225294.001263418792.03082523819340.872749225543089053134254DRYMH
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206814841.2536.0338.647.22920467929510.64290.92292.983.9029TF9.2568.2525294.249456531552.12718954803790.819517325341059043134248DRYM
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206814842.8635.8639.367.98952876541290.41460.66462.933.5946TF10.8661.8625294.835307612662.35559517123070.85853752712369053134254DRYMH
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206814842.8735.8739.377.25343849161770.41460.67462.252.9246FF10.8758.8725294.268146826442.13445590304790.858760557430049053134254DRYMH
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206814840.8636.3838.627.16687229589371.4741.9942.354.344TF8.8678.8625294.201377479892.10850370167440.809136661956539043154280WETM
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206814841.8633.4437.657.78454362334151.08611.69612.344.0361TF9.8676.8625294.677472178822.29392963699210.835029642319259043154280WETM
2019-12-01 12:00:12FORECAST20206814841.732.837.257.54178412121881.08611.69612.334.0261TF9.774.725294.490444742632.22098336001060.83104665479839043154280WETM
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206814839.2631.6835.479.87596463657491.03891.77892.554.3289TF7.2667.2625296.283982894852.92609013745310.762860594631789043153260WETM
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206814840.0532.7236.3859.36051040690530.86611.53612.734.2661TF8.0572.0525295.888832375692.76967049473970.786439294643099043153260WETM
2019-12-01 00:00:13FORECAST20206814840.0932.7336.417.51965338983850.86611.53612.784.3161TF8.0968.0925294.473388987832.21433781771960.78759573019499043154280WETM
2019-11-30 20:00:11FORECAST20206814840.0831.8835.989.43043691569770.69831.70832.84.5083TF8.0890.0825295.942468822162.79086678290320.787306964184819043153260WETM
2019-11-30 16:00:11FORECAST20206814836.1729.2632.71511.3412948946760.62141.48143.034.5114TF4.1780.1725297.404492740293.37295205516920.658429573868459033143242WETM
2019-11-30 12:00:11FORECAST20206814836.2229.2732.74510.949077570030.49471.35473.114.4647TF4.2281.2225297.104980331573.25302547609270.660253074228729033143242WETM
2019-11-30 08:00:12FORECAST20206814838.3134.1236.2157.96985493479820.05510.675122.6751FF6.3183.3125294.820162627962.34967392799850.732711309278039043134248DRYM
2019-11-30 04:00:12FORECAST20206814837.7536.4437.0957.84398473019560.01450.68452.553.2345FF5.7580.7525294.7232493852.31180466780960.714075902979119043134248DRYM