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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 5, 2019

[ Wednesday, December 4, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, December 6, 2019 ]

DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 12 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 300.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 24.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-06 04:00:11OBSERVATION20206614641.0100834.6699437.8400112.47864958333300.253.133.38FF9.0100840.0100827300.53988222089 3.75033187605070.7929617725358689 43123224DRYL
2019-12-06 00:00:12FORECAST20206714734.4134.4134.4112.9868253333330.00140.25143.133.3814FF2.4133.4127300.923457065093.90804037560710.53643109910918933123221DRYL
2019-12-05 12:00:11FORECAST20206614642.5733.8638.21512.6254786666670.00340.25343.133.3834FF10.5741.5727300.650760772083.7958597662450.838482273909648943123224DRYL
2019-12-05 08:00:11FORECAST20206614645.3530.2837.81512.2555729923620.00720.25723.133.3872FF13.3544.3527300.371345911173.68122295462850.902180962878228953123227DRYL
2019-12-05 04:00:11FORECAST20206614642.3730.7336.5512.6829155833330.01010.26013.133.3901FF10.3741.3727300.694123231583.81367818135060.833039856768158943123224DRYL
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20206614645.6133.5939.612.8599266666670.0070.0873.133.217FF13.6140.6127300.827719381293.8686224105440.907032572368518953113213.5DRYL
2019-12-04 20:00:10FORECAST20206614646.4234.6940.55513.8993413333330.0130.1933.133.323FF14.4253.4227301.610989430774.19219409198260.921009168985448953123227DRYL
2019-12-04 16:00:11FORECAST20206614646.2836.441.3413.8308986666670.01340.19343.133.3234FF14.2853.2827301.559476775944.1708385652610.918714081920458953123227DRYL
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20206614646.1237.5841.8513.2612173333330.0270.2073.133.337FF14.1253.1227301.13036444253.99335520853790.916030142608328953123227DRYL
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20206614646.4337.0241.72513.0579666666670.0340.2743.133.404FF14.4353.4327300.977115577293.93014914263780.921171212701878953123227DRYL
2019-12-04 04:00:11FORECAST20206614646.4335.8141.1212.736085750.03690.31693.133.4469FF14.4350.4327300.734258835763.8301773084950.921171212701878953123227DRYL
2019-12-04 00:00:12FORECAST20206614646.7937.942.34511.6901693333330.03680.29683.133.4268FF14.7946.7927299.943750518573.50639323403720.926839055538298953123227DRYL
2019-12-03 20:00:11FORECAST20206614646.7834.8940.83512.8746693333330.05310.58313.133.7131TF14.7858.7827300.838843452543.87320063207380.926685928743588953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 16:00:10FORECAST20206614646.5636.7741.66512.7425946666670.05960.61963.133.7496TF14.5660.5627300.739171731853.8321973657680.923254999295428953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206614646.2737.2741.7712.0206666666670.07880.59883.133.7288TF14.2760.2727300.193768877883.60852923109130.918548248454898953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206614646.3137.3841.84511.8320977273420.10891.02893.134.1589TF14.3161.3127300.051143827883.55023445697230.919210059217128953143254WETMH
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206614646.0535.2140.6312.0574285998250.10861.00863.134.1386TF14.0562.0527300.221565991763.61990009607320.91483528014798953143254WETMH
2019-12-03 00:00:13FORECAST20206614646.536.9941.7458.77365305957420.10940.81943.133.9494TF14.555.527297.728309313562.61216489193080.922298498095288953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-02 20:00:11FORECAST20206614645.9235.6440.789.75848533333330.02250.73253.153.8825TF13.9267.9227298.478242625572.91269555298070.912582636605238953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-02 16:00:11FORECAST20206614646.0337.7541.899.60968266666670.0360.7063.153.856TF14.0369.0327298.365052156122.86719347004380.914491569720618953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206614645.6238.1241.878.77413248666190.04050.96053.154.1105TF13.6268.6227297.728674845852.61231083817580.907215566667658953133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206614641.7836.1738.9759.04648867929510.06711.01713.174.1871TF9.7865.7827297.936256975412.69527697587960.816306506071738943143248WETM
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206614641.8535.338.5759.78202575933910.06930.97933.164.1393TF9.8561.8527298.496145320282.91989698258640.818344613044818943133236WETM
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206614641.8736.3139.099.08816115828430.07590.78592.683.4659TF9.8758.8727297.968005886362.70798125750790.818924326449638943133236DRYL
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206614645.1536.1940.678.99465229589370.12260.84262.773.6126TF13.1578.1527297.896759824892.67947777469820.898324956434198953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206614645.0336.1440.5858.76885466666670.18190.87192.793.6619TF13.0377.0327297.724650823322.61070419375380.895959040110248953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-01 12:00:11FORECAST20206614644.5535.640.0758.38281871777490.18190.86192.793.6519TF12.5574.5527297.430175147192.49330323945490.886097739724628953134254DRYMH
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206614645.0535.3940.229.06870564787870.10040.84042.953.7904TF13.0571.0527297.953183781852.70204972056590.89635609846998953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206614645.0435.140.079.32513661301420.06910.67913.263.9391TF13.0474.0427298.148485926412.78027536222710.896157706495568953133240.5DRYM
2019-12-01 00:00:13FORECAST20206614645.0535.1140.089.02736005650520.06910.71913.273.9891TF13.0570.0527297.921682372392.68944629541540.89635609846998953133240.5DRYM
2019-11-30 20:00:11FORECAST20206614645.0335.340.1658.96042377739550.34191.40192.884.2819TF13.0392.0327297.870676278252.66904749031250.895959040110248953143254WETMH
2019-11-30 16:00:11FORECAST20206614645.1836.8641.029.01881175196620.25051.56052.864.4205TF13.1887.1827297.91516896442.68684082694520.898910286645528953153267.5WETMH
2019-11-30 12:00:11FORECAST20206614645.1836.8741.0258.78007434131440.25051.61052.894.5005TF13.1888.1827297.733205090612.61411967457330.898910286645528953153267.5WETMH
2019-11-30 08:00:12FORECAST20206614645.7835.2840.539.10085360146490.04640.23642.953.1864FF13.7883.7827297.977675179772.7118511983160.910107464883198953123227DRYL
2019-11-30 04:00:12FORECAST20206614644.913539.9558.89030473019560.05070.71073.033.7407TF12.9182.9127297.817235582842.64768597823590.893553589448748953133240.5DRYM
2019-11-30 00:00:13FORECAST20206614644.9234.9839.959.85095414705180.05070.71072.983.6907TF12.9274.9227298.548559791272.94098817317220.893755559442358953133240.5DRYM
2019-11-29 20:00:11FORECAST20206614642.3629.7536.05510.5961564023070.12280.94282.783.7228TF10.3691.3627299.114640395323.16946551184850.832764674150638943133236DRYL
2019-11-29 16:00:11FORECAST20206614644.883238.4410.2168211199920.20580.95582.783.7358TF12.8894.8827298.826618496393.05305810706960.892946021882448953133240.5DRYM
2019-11-29 12:00:11FORECAST20206614644.93238.4510.2155481052330.20580.95582.733.6858TF12.993.927298.825651453763.05266781750330.89335134327918953133240.5DRYM
2019-11-29 08:00:11FORECAST20206614645.2534.6939.9710.1521148227710.06050.27052.743.0105FF13.2597.2527298.777460551823.03322308597810.900266529191158953123227DRYL
2019-11-29 04:00:12FORECAST20206614645.3135.4740.399.74845800226930.04610.08612.712.7961FF13.3194.3127298.470616429682.90962826917620.901418436553648953113213.5DRYL
2019-11-29 00:00:13FORECAST20206614645.3335.4740.411.0431582696130.04610.08612.662.7461FF13.3393.3327299.453684225023.30691442931550.901800240102258953113213.5DRYL
2019-11-28 20:00:11FORECAST20206614644.2632.3738.31511.4364162706280.05030.13032.732.8603FF12.26108.2627299.751646046833.42808460199750.879827439355668953123227DRYL
2019-11-28 16:00:11FORECAST20206614645.1735.840.48511.7378231801830.01690.11692.662.7769FF13.17110.1727299.979813190163.52111000485060.898715449190398953123227DRYL
2019-11-28 12:00:12FORECAST20206614641.4935.838.64511.9931621180750.01510.11512.652.7651FF9.49106.4927300.172969931593.60002309185370.8077124080818943123224DRYL
2019-11-28 08:00:12FORECAST20206614637.7136.4137.0612.2908209773620.21710.31712.833.1471FF5.7195.7127300.397982424033.69213782393440.675107822097628933123221DRYL
2019-11-28 04:00:11FORECAST20206614637.5437.0637.311.9737792354060.1130.1432.762.903FF5.5495.5427300.158311718213.5940293601860.668357093911498933123221DRYL