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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 3, 2019

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DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.646
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 31.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-04 04:00:11OBSERVATION20206414436.5932.3000634.4450314.6735270833330.0800000000000410.610000000000044.094.7TF4.5943.5929304.43190349061 4.46708978090030.6457649314436589 33133231.5WETM
2019-12-04 00:00:12FORECAST20206514531.2731.2731.27140.00190.53194.094.6219TF-0.7338.2729303.929420673544.25501188942960.38818980590948923133227WETL
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206414444.9734.8539.9114.3109813333330.04210.57214.094.6621TF12.9751.9729304.161534170414.35285003783080.920886858389048953133240.5WETM
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206414445.3729.9437.65514.1366257273420.10350.63354.094.7235TF13.3752.3729304.031419392554.29797838530510.927944517626498953133240.5WETM
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206414446.6130.9538.7814.2553565998250.11890.64894.094.7389TF14.6153.6129304.120029863814.3353394748580.946786170120498953133240.5WETM
2019-12-03 00:00:12FORECAST2020641444530.9437.9711.0727690595740.12430.65434.094.7443TF134629301.735554671193.34104811393660.921433640693328953133240.5WETM
2019-12-02 20:00:10FORECAST20206414444.1835.1339.65511.9486506666670.11840.66844.094.7584TF12.1860.1829302.393710962113.61319681608320.905434874024888953133240.5WETM
2019-12-02 16:00:11FORECAST20206414444.5735.9240.24511.922520.12590.67594.094.7659TF12.5760.5729302.374096999313.60506121895630.913319627235288953133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206414445.8339.442.61511.0444938199950.14640.69644.094.7864TF13.8361.8329301.714283640923.33228154107640.935454412673328953133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206414446.236.1441.1711.1488593459620.15080.72084.094.8108TF14.262.229301.792788643383.36464535221060.941043117576348953133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206414443.9334.4439.18511.8157350926720.15660.71664.094.8066TF11.9356.9329302.293929554093.57182499173410.900110679578818953133240.5WETM
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206414444.1135.7139.9111.1885638249510.11540.19544.094.2854TF12.1157.1129301.822649365323.37696197623970.903965572910418953123227WETM
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206414445.3235.3740.34511.1472616292270.04420.21424.094.3042TF13.3271.3229301.791586978513.3641497775490.927089569838568953123227WETMH
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206414446.0936.1441.11510.9478133333330.02030.21034.094.3003TF14.0971.0929301.641540846453.3023152827660.939422629366688953123227WETMH
2019-12-01 12:00:11FORECAST20206414444.9736.5940.7810.4891253844420.03370.22374.094.3137TF12.9769.9729301.296178630563.16033339550910.920886858389048953123227WETMH
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206414444.1834.539.3411.1103963145450.00490.35494.094.4449TF12.1867.1829301.763858710563.35271606368080.905434874024888953123227WETM
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206414444.2334.0639.14511.2918382992390.03290.69294.094.7829TF12.2368.2329301.900305350773.40900943051180.906474216522598953133240.5WETM
2019-12-01 00:00:13FORECAST20206414444.6633.9539.30511.0369613898390.03430.70434.094.7943TF12.6663.6629301.708616851233.32994635516860.915067572750298953133240.5WETM
2019-11-30 20:00:11FORECAST20206414447.6634.7641.2111.0071437773960.16260.43264.14.5326TF15.6686.6629301.686183433253.32070319670350.959490125057358953123227WETMH
2019-11-30 16:00:10FORECAST20206414447.9735.5441.75511.0666797519660.19950.44954.14.5495TF15.9782.9729301.730973907283.33916005948070.962731136288778953123227WETMH
2019-11-30 12:00:11FORECAST20206414447.0833.7340.40510.8308396746480.24870.52874.14.6287TF15.0884.0829301.553505501733.26607767141720.952815793888448953133240.5WETMH
2019-11-30 08:00:12FORECAST20206414442.0832.3737.22510.9933042681320.0250.3654.14.465TF10.0880.0829301.675770637433.31641353694030.853850169242938953123227WETM
2019-11-30 04:00:12FORECAST20206414446.8933.6440.26510.7663553968620.08550.50554.14.6055TF14.8978.8929301.504962914673.24610958465710.950447518209568953133240.5WETMH
2019-11-30 00:00:13FORECAST20206414446.8932.1139.511.7291914803850.08730.45734.14.5573TF14.8970.8929302.228942055993.54490113228890.950447518209568953123227WETM
2019-11-29 20:00:11FORECAST20206414446.3233.4139.86511.6026244023070.18190.35194.14.4519TF14.3292.3229302.133874332043.50554586308830.94277205227118953123227WETM
2019-11-29 16:00:11FORECAST20206414446.533.7340.11511.6833637866590.12620.28624.114.3962TF14.592.529302.194523249193.53064854945610.945290587048458953123227WETMH
2019-11-29 12:00:11FORECAST20206414446.533.7240.1111.6855894385660.12620.24624.14.3462TF14.591.529302.196194913613.53134066365720.945290587048458953123227WETMH
2019-11-29 08:00:11FORECAST20206414445.6731.9438.80512.1067761561050.02380.15384.14.2538TF13.6788.6729302.512373905233.66244959532240.932914200929048953123227WETM
2019-11-29 04:00:12FORECAST20206414445.8432.5739.20511.7132326689360.00070.10074.14.2007TF13.8484.8429302.216956674073.53993753002110.935610668948038953123227WETM
2019-11-29 00:00:13FORECAST20206414445.8532.5639.20513.0103929362790.00070.05074.14.1507TF13.8583.8529303.189566194223.94461539036680.935766632131618953113213.5WETM
2019-11-28 20:00:11FORECAST20206414445.4132.6239.01512.9519949372950.05820.16824.114.2782TF13.41101.4129303.145848282923.92634349222220.928622944049078953123227WETM
2019-11-28 16:00:11FORECAST20206414445.1330.537.81513.299321846850.04760.08764.114.1976TF13.13102.1329303.405768777214.03509096915910.923770083273998953113213.5WETM
2019-11-28 12:00:12FORECAST20206414445.1430.537.8213.2945021180750.04760.08764.14.1876TF13.14102.1429303.402163524054.03358070559910.923947603043078953113213.5WETM
2019-11-28 08:00:11FORECAST20206414444.6828.7436.7113.5026716440280.00590.22594.14.3259TF12.6894.6829303.55783827044.09884181513630.915452403865358953123227WETM
2019-11-28 04:00:11FORECAST20206414445.7928.9737.3813.0602245687390.00220.15224.14.2522TF13.7994.7929303.226866024733.9602109655580.934826450492818953123227WETM
2019-11-28 00:00:13FORECAST20206414445.5229.137.3112.3044377917530.00220.15224.14.2522TF13.5295.5229302.660639158413.72406900653690.930463423876168953123227WETM
2019-11-27 20:00:11FORECAST20206414447.3232.6639.9911.9545349278330.00060.08064.124.2006TF15.32114.3229302.3981275733.61502897818290.955677061087098953113213.5WETM
2019-11-27 16:00:11FORECAST20206414448.1533.7840.96511.854066192920.00060.06064.114.1706TF16.15116.1529302.322708654123.5837534000090.964513980707028953113213.5WETMH
2019-11-27 12:00:11FORECAST20206414448.1633.7740.96511.891407992260.00060.06064.134.1906TF16.16115.1629302.350742289913.5953760333320.964610947293948953113213.5WETMH
2019-11-27 08:00:12FORECAST20206414448.8835.6542.26511.8727132153770.00250.03254.114.1425TF16.88104.8829302.336707879033.58955702712890.971043576278898953113213.5WETMH
2019-11-27 04:00:12FORECAST20206414447.6634.2740.96512.0843063484960.00250.06254.144.2025TF15.66107.6629302.495514674183.65544846836860.959490125057358953113213.5WETMH
2019-11-27 00:00:13FORECAST20206414446.7334.2840.5058.2328517565780.10650.16654.114.2765TF14.73103.7329299.59148131612.4664922532090.948380675712878953124236WETMH
2019-11-26 20:00:12FORECAST20206414443.9832.2838.139.06676785122910.17380.82384.154.9738TF11.98106.9829300.22267385912.72204928755570.901192608333398953133240.5WETM
2019-11-26 16:00:12FORECAST20206414444.3533.0638.7059.02533006347150.07530.79534.164.9553TF12.35110.3529300.191341081962.70932593546090.908934288491638953133240.5WETM
2019-11-26 12:00:12FORECAST20206414441.3133.0637.1859.40140970334770.02060.74064.164.9006TF9.31105.3129300.475589197132.82489411989710.830915028943218943133236WETM
2019-11-26 08:00:11FORECAST20206414438.2636.7737.5159.30950745796510.01670.07674.184.2567TF6.2697.2629300.406152806312.7966333199690.719197455069618943113212WETM
2019-11-26 04:00:11FORECAST20206414436.6135.936.2559.71542011714710.01710.18714.244.4271TF4.6199.6129300.712716300152.92155037342440.646684679162788933123221WETM