Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 3, 2019

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DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.45°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.646 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.70 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 15 in SWE DAY: 29 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.43 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.47 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 31.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-04 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	64	144	36.59	32.30006	34.44503	14.673527083333	0.080000000000041	0.61000000000004	4.09	4.7	T	F	4.59	43.59	29	304.43190349061	4.4670897809003	0.64576493144365	89	3	3	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	M
2019-12-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	65	145	31.27	31.27	31.27	14	0.0019	0.5319	4.09	4.6219	T	F	-0.73	38.27	29	303.92942067354	4.2550118894296	0.3881898059094	89	2	3	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2019-12-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.97	34.85	39.91	14.310981333333	0.0421	0.5721	4.09	4.6621	T	F	12.97	51.97	29	304.16153417041	4.3528500378308	0.92088685838904	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.37	29.94	37.655	14.136625727342	0.1035	0.6335	4.09	4.7235	T	F	13.37	52.37	29	304.03141939255	4.2979783853051	0.92794451762649	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.61	30.95	38.78	14.255356599825	0.1189	0.6489	4.09	4.7389	T	F	14.61	53.61	29	304.12002986381	4.335339474858	0.94678617012049	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-03 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45	30.94	37.97	11.072769059574	0.1243	0.6543	4.09	4.7443	T	F	13	46	29	301.73555467119	3.3410481139366	0.92143364069332	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.18	35.13	39.655	11.948650666667	0.1184	0.6684	4.09	4.7584	T	F	12.18	60.18	29	302.39371096211	3.6131968160832	0.90543487402488	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.57	35.92	40.245	11.92252	0.1259	0.6759	4.09	4.7659	T	F	12.57	60.57	29	302.37409699931	3.6050612189563	0.91331962723528	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	MH
2019-12-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.83	39.4	42.615	11.044493819995	0.1464	0.6964	4.09	4.7864	T	F	13.83	61.83	29	301.71428364092	3.3322815410764	0.93545441267332	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	MH
2019-12-02 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.2	36.14	41.17	11.148859345962	0.1508	0.7208	4.09	4.8108	T	F	14.2	62.2	29	301.79278864338	3.3646453522106	0.94104311757634	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	MH
2019-12-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	43.93	34.44	39.185	11.815735092672	0.1566	0.7166	4.09	4.8066	T	F	11.93	56.93	29	302.29392955409	3.5718249917341	0.90011067957881	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-02 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.11	35.71	39.91	11.188563824951	0.1154	0.1954	4.09	4.2854	T	F	12.11	57.11	29	301.82264936532	3.3769619762397	0.90396557291041	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.32	35.37	40.345	11.147261629227	0.0442	0.2142	4.09	4.3042	T	F	13.32	71.32	29	301.79158697851	3.364149777549	0.92708956983856	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-12-01 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.09	36.14	41.115	10.947813333333	0.0203	0.2103	4.09	4.3003	T	F	14.09	71.09	29	301.64154084645	3.302315282766	0.93942262936668	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-12-01 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.97	36.59	40.78	10.489125384442	0.0337	0.2237	4.09	4.3137	T	F	12.97	69.97	29	301.29617863056	3.1603333955091	0.92088685838904	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-12-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.18	34.5	39.34	11.110396314545	0.0049	0.3549	4.09	4.4449	T	F	12.18	67.18	29	301.76385871056	3.3527160636808	0.90543487402488	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.23	34.06	39.145	11.291838299239	0.0329	0.6929	4.09	4.7829	T	F	12.23	68.23	29	301.90030535077	3.4090094305118	0.90647421652259	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-01 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.66	33.95	39.305	11.036961389839	0.0343	0.7043	4.09	4.7943	T	F	12.66	63.66	29	301.70861685123	3.3299463551686	0.91506757275029	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	47.66	34.76	41.21	11.007143777396	0.1626	0.4326	4.1	4.5326	T	F	15.66	86.66	29	301.68618343325	3.3207031967035	0.95949012505735	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-30 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	64	144	47.97	35.54	41.755	11.066679751966	0.1995	0.4495	4.1	4.5495	T	F	15.97	82.97	29	301.73097390728	3.3391600594807	0.96273113628877	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	47.08	33.73	40.405	10.830839674648	0.2487	0.5287	4.1	4.6287	T	F	15.08	84.08	29	301.55350550173	3.2660776714172	0.95281579388844	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	MH
2019-11-30 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	42.08	32.37	37.225	10.993304268132	0.025	0.365	4.1	4.465	T	F	10.08	80.08	29	301.67577063743	3.3164135369403	0.85385016924293	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.89	33.64	40.265	10.766355396862	0.0855	0.5055	4.1	4.6055	T	F	14.89	78.89	29	301.50496291467	3.2461095846571	0.95044751820956	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	MH
2019-11-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.89	32.11	39.5	11.729191480385	0.0873	0.4573	4.1	4.5573	T	F	14.89	70.89	29	302.22894205599	3.5449011322889	0.95044751820956	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.32	33.41	39.865	11.602624402307	0.1819	0.3519	4.1	4.4519	T	F	14.32	92.32	29	302.13387433204	3.5055458630883	0.9427720522711	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.5	33.73	40.115	11.683363786659	0.1262	0.2862	4.11	4.3962	T	F	14.5	92.5	29	302.19452324919	3.5306485494561	0.94529058704845	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.5	33.72	40.11	11.685589438566	0.1262	0.2462	4.1	4.3462	T	F	14.5	91.5	29	302.19619491361	3.5313406636572	0.94529058704845	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-29 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.67	31.94	38.805	12.106776156105	0.0238	0.1538	4.1	4.2538	T	F	13.67	88.67	29	302.51237390523	3.6624495953224	0.93291420092904	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.84	32.57	39.205	11.713232668936	0.0007	0.1007	4.1	4.2007	T	F	13.84	84.84	29	302.21695667407	3.5399375300211	0.93561066894803	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.85	32.56	39.205	13.010392936279	0.0007	0.0507	4.1	4.1507	T	F	13.85	83.85	29	303.18956619422	3.9446153903668	0.93576663213161	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.41	32.62	39.015	12.951994937295	0.0582	0.1682	4.11	4.2782	T	F	13.41	101.41	29	303.14584828292	3.9263434922222	0.92862294404907	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.13	30.5	37.815	13.29932184685	0.0476	0.0876	4.11	4.1976	T	F	13.13	102.13	29	303.40576877721	4.0350909691591	0.92377008327399	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.14	30.5	37.82	13.294502118075	0.0476	0.0876	4.1	4.1876	T	F	13.14	102.14	29	303.40216352405	4.0335807055991	0.92394760304307	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.68	28.74	36.71	13.502671644028	0.0059	0.2259	4.1	4.3259	T	F	12.68	94.68	29	303.5578382704	4.0988418151363	0.91545240386535	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.79	28.97	37.38	13.060224568739	0.0022	0.1522	4.1	4.2522	T	F	13.79	94.79	29	303.22686602473	3.960210965558	0.93482645049281	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	45.52	29.1	37.31	12.304437791753	0.0022	0.1522	4.1	4.2522	T	F	13.52	95.52	29	302.66063915841	3.7240690065369	0.93046342387616	89	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	47.32	32.66	39.99	11.954534927833	0.0006	0.0806	4.12	4.2006	T	F	15.32	114.32	29	302.398127573	3.6150289781829	0.95567706108709	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	48.15	33.78	40.965	11.85406619292	0.0006	0.0606	4.11	4.1706	T	F	16.15	116.15	29	302.32270865412	3.583753400009	0.96451398070702	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	MH
2019-11-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	48.16	33.77	40.965	11.89140799226	0.0006	0.0606	4.13	4.1906	T	F	16.16	115.16	29	302.35074228991	3.595376033332	0.96461094729394	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	MH
2019-11-27 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	48.88	35.65	42.265	11.872713215377	0.0025	0.0325	4.11	4.1425	T	F	16.88	104.88	29	302.33670787903	3.5895570271289	0.97104357627889	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	MH
2019-11-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	47.66	34.27	40.965	12.084306348496	0.0025	0.0625	4.14	4.2025	T	F	15.66	107.66	29	302.49551467418	3.6554484683686	0.95949012505735	89	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	MH
2019-11-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	64	144	46.73	34.28	40.505	8.232851756578	0.1065	0.1665	4.11	4.2765	T	F	14.73	103.73	29	299.5914813161	2.466492253209	0.94838067571287	89	5	3	1	2	4	2	36	WET	MH
2019-11-26 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	43.98	32.28	38.13	9.0667678512291	0.1738	0.8238	4.15	4.9738	T	F	11.98	106.98	29	300.2226738591	2.7220492875557	0.90119260833339	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	44.35	33.06	38.705	9.0253300634715	0.0753	0.7953	4.16	4.9553	T	F	12.35	110.35	29	300.19134108196	2.7093259354609	0.90893428849163	89	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	41.31	33.06	37.185	9.4014097033477	0.0206	0.7406	4.16	4.9006	T	F	9.31	105.31	29	300.47558919713	2.8248941198971	0.83091502894321	89	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	M
2019-11-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	38.26	36.77	37.515	9.3095074579651	0.0167	0.0767	4.18	4.2567	T	F	6.26	97.26	29	300.40615280631	2.796633319969	0.71919745506961	89	4	3	1	1	3	2	12	WET	M
2019-11-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	64	144	36.61	35.9	36.255	9.7154201171471	0.0171	0.1871	4.24	4.4271	T	F	4.61	99.61	29	300.71271630015	2.9215503734244	0.64668467916278	89	3	3	1	2	3	2	21	WET	M