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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 4, 2019

[ Tuesday, December 3, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 5, 2019 ]

DAY 65 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.677
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 43

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 13 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 302.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 21.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-05 04:00:11OBSERVATION20206514536.9534.5500635.7500313.4628995833330.170000000000020.250000000000024.224.47TF4.9542.9528302.40736074674 4.07127993099420.6769103464701192 33123221WETM
2019-12-05 00:00:12FORECAST20206614633.0533.0533.0513.994260.00170.08174.224.3017TF1.0539.0528302.8059049914.23754456397930.48740035650428922311329WETM
2019-12-04 12:00:11FORECAST20206514544.7433.2939.01514.3825946666670.10120.18124.224.4012TF12.7450.7428303.096833464084.3593189004640.925060789828819253123227WETM
2019-12-04 08:00:11FORECAST20206514544.8131.8338.3214.1812026666670.16250.24254.224.4625TF12.8150.8128302.945992548854.29613851738970.926301809694369253123227WETM
2019-12-04 04:00:11FORECAST20206514542.3633.7338.04513.8167910833330.2030.2834.224.503TF10.3648.3628302.672855131174.18196760594340.872857230073479253123227WETM
2019-12-04 00:00:12FORECAST20206514544.3232.2138.26512.8951320.25770.25774.224.4777TF12.3244.3228301.980914625473.89408375557620.917278866463929253123227WETM
2019-12-03 20:00:10FORECAST20206514542.4337.0539.7413.9378266666670.48770.52774.224.7477TF10.4356.4328302.763602974964.21986661924050.874684696184379253133240.5WETM
2019-12-03 16:00:10FORECAST20206514544.4836.9240.713.8707506666670.51630.55634.224.7763TF12.4858.4828302.713315406094.19886092147780.920311955707299253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-03 12:00:11FORECAST20206514544.0937.0640.57513.1901506666670.48380.52384.224.7438TF12.0958.0928302.202577764933.98609753257450.912768251551019253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-03 08:00:11FORECAST20206514544.5237.1540.83512.9915777273420.82040.92044.225.1404TF12.5258.5228302.053397680763.92415019377740.921056961325349253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-03 04:00:12FORECAST20206514544.4136.9840.69513.1214605998250.78010.90014.225.1201TF12.4160.4128302.150982115773.96466220703050.918995459477929253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-03 00:00:12FORECAST20206514544.5936.9440.7659.93231305957420.58830.70834.224.9283TF12.5952.5928299.745557152442.97716671185450.922348051188529253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 20:00:10FORECAST20206514544.0937.0140.5510.8226266666670.58590.72594.224.9459TF12.0966.0928300.419040790643.25132312203520.912768251551019253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 16:00:11FORECAST20206514544.1336.7440.43510.7936533333330.54190.69194.224.9119TF12.1367.1328300.397147686993.24238267445550.913565583270319253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 12:00:11FORECAST20206514542.9438.1740.5559.93634581999520.77240.94244.225.1624TF10.9466.9428299.74861119582.97840585990480.887447920842339253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 08:00:11FORECAST20206514544.2236.5240.3710.0302153459620.80110.99114.225.2111TF12.2268.2228299.819690538813.00725606106390.91533970326059253143254WETMH
2019-12-02 04:00:12FORECAST20206514544.536.1740.33510.7162790926720.75010.94014.225.1601TF12.563.528300.338673535683.21851304793130.920685118429119253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-02 00:00:13FORECAST20206514542.336.439.3510.1470544916180.59080.78083.74.4808TF10.361.328299.908139133333.04318423026560.871276182887439253133240.5WETM
2019-12-01 20:00:11FORECAST20206514543.6336.4640.04510.0816442958940.67690.73693.844.5769TF11.6376.6328299.858626087263.02306800726710.903202342935869253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-01 16:00:11FORECAST20206514543.4736.6240.0459.86934933333330.67220.73223.844.5722TF11.4776.4728299.697870135922.95782297482730.89970132598339253133240.5WETMH
2019-12-01 12:00:11FORECAST20206514541.8337.8439.8359.41678405110830.64610.71613.844.5561TF9.8373.8328299.354884975352.81896030645730.858420814539649253133240.5WETM
2019-12-01 08:00:11FORECAST20206514541.2137.2339.2210.1500123145450.73990.779944.7799TF9.2170.2128299.910377899113.04409402893590.840176341757559243133236WETM
2019-12-01 04:00:11FORECAST20206514543.0435.0839.0610.3972046130140.58460.75464.214.9646TF11.0473.0428300.097417453453.12017425310060.889837918011629253133240.5WETM
2019-12-01 00:00:13FORECAST20206514543.0435.2339.13510.1007947231720.62210.78214.235.0121TF11.0469.0428299.87312308863.02895685931440.889837918011629253133240.5WETM
2019-11-30 20:00:11FORECAST20206514542.4238.2640.3410.0237997773960.9041.0743.965.034TF10.4291.4228299.814833118393.0052838574720.874424754852599253143254WETMH
2019-11-30 16:00:11FORECAST20206514540.9735.6138.2910.2138797519661.1091.3193.945.259TF8.9785.9728299.958714835513.06374224388420.832719394954079243143248WETM
2019-11-30 12:00:11FORECAST20206514540.9735.6138.299.97656367464771.1091.3693.975.339TF8.9786.9728299.779066803622.99076494829280.832719394954079243143248WETM
2019-11-30 08:00:12FORECAST20206514540.236.9738.58510.1121869347980.15880.25883.974.2288TF8.282.228299.881746734373.03246028131180.807313666951159243123224WETM
2019-11-30 04:00:12FORECAST20206514541.2537.5739.419.85500739686230.57270.75274.034.7827TF9.2582.2528299.687006876212.95341766950850.841397748057929243133236WETM
2019-11-30 00:00:13FORECAST20206514541.2437.5839.4110.8162034803850.57270.69274.044.7327TF9.2474.2428300.414187380983.24934097910720.84109297032979243133236WETM
2019-11-29 20:00:11FORECAST20206514538.8831.9335.40511.168625735640.64270.83273.864.6927TF6.8892.8828300.680363406453.35818644494280.758634466125969243133236WETM
2019-11-29 16:00:11FORECAST20206514539.1134.1136.6111.0263251199920.62370.75373.874.6237TF7.1194.1128300.572915864843.31421469258970.767567554524329243133236WETM
2019-11-29 12:00:11FORECAST20206514539.1434.1136.62511.0269107718990.62370.75373.824.5737TF7.1493.1428300.573358155163.3143956007870.768719052039469243133236WETM
2019-11-29 08:00:11FORECAST20206514545.0234.7839.911.2210121561050.19420.21423.834.0442TF13.0296.0228300.719909268423.37438175748370.92993097431789253123227WETM
2019-11-29 04:00:12FORECAST20206514545.5234.484010.8146220022690.04010.04013.83.8401TF13.5292.5228300.412992391633.24885295728610.938019361227519253113213.5DRYL
2019-11-29 00:00:13FORECAST20206514545.5334.4840.00512.1106342696130.04010.04013.753.7901TF13.5391.5328301.390671212943.65003219133290.938173387629259253113213.5DRYL
2019-11-28 20:00:11FORECAST20206514544.7535.840.27512.0340322706280.02010.09013.813.9001TF12.75107.7528301.332974053533.62625073396450.925239044697159253123227DRYL
2019-11-28 16:00:11FORECAST20206514544.7336.1540.4412.382561846850.05440.10443.753.8544TF12.73108.7328301.595398323753.73452367246910.924882212053729253123227DRYL
2019-11-28 12:00:12FORECAST20206514544.7436.1740.45512.3763207847420.05440.10443.743.8444TF12.74108.7428301.590701177743.7325832634710.925060789828819253123227DRYL
2019-11-28 08:00:12FORECAST20206514545.3835.3540.36512.5157743106950.08910.09913.924.0191TF13.38102.3828301.695638887843.77595452684120.93583152499269253123227WETMH
2019-11-28 04:00:11FORECAST20206514545.334.5439.9212.0900552354060.02890.02893.853.8789TF13.3102.328301.375172043793.64364247658940.934554739968069253113213.5DRYL
2019-11-28 00:00:13FORECAST20206514545.1935.2340.2111.293924458420.02890.02893.853.8789TF13.19103.1928300.774941107323.39692946385180.93276720845099253113213.5DRYL
2019-11-27 20:00:11FORECAST20206514543.7133.3838.54511.3251029278330.13650.13653.83.9365TF11.71119.7128300.798470493213.40657363887040.904918932312029253123227DRYL
2019-11-27 16:00:11FORECAST20206514539.8137.8438.82511.247758192920.18480.18483.773.9548TF7.81117.8128300.740097492383.38265189550960.793593507873649243123224DRYL
2019-11-27 12:00:12FORECAST20206514539.8137.8538.8311.4537466589270.07150.07153.793.8615TF7.81116.8128300.895534067483.44638121801140.793593507873649243113212DRYL
2019-11-27 08:00:12FORECAST20206514540.8537.153911.5672358820440.02060.02063.743.7606TF8.85107.8528300.981137016323.48151980791350.828908374151589243113212DRYL
2019-11-27 04:00:12FORECAST20206514537.9937.737.84511.9573703484960.00050.00053.83.8005TF5.99107.9928301.275220519243.60245938857320.722380661074829243113212DRYL