Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 2, 2019

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DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.51°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.561 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 15 in SWE DAY: 30 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.89 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.63 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 31.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-03 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	63	143	35.51	30.97994	33.24497	15.136124583333	0	0.53	4.95	5.48	T	F	3.51	49.51	30	305.8882808403	4.6299631273805	0.561111423516	94	3	3	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	M
2019-12-03 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	64	144	30.3	30.3	30.3	12.008048183492	0.0021	0.5321	4.95	5.4821	T	F	-1.7	44.3	30	303.55891450413	3.645150071894	0.31812311737697	94	2	3	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2019-12-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.29	32.58	38.935	12.344303153329	0.0222	0.5522	4.95	5.5022	T	F	13.29	59.29	30	303.810200257	3.7503252130459	0.90838256652733	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-02 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.93	24.64	34.785	12.295383345962	0.0378	0.5678	4.95	5.5178	T	F	12.93	58.93	30	303.77365547306	3.7350135444453	0.90103560173329	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-02 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	41.67	26.65	34.16	12.820727092672	0.0349	0.5649	4.95	5.5149	T	F	9.67	55.67	30	304.16586802295	3.8996275848281	0.81457998668775	94	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	M
2019-12-02 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.09	29.55	37.32	12.254727824951	0.0663	0.0763	4.95	5.0263	T	F	13.09	56.09	30	303.74328094093	3.7222912365887	0.90435228390061	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-12-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.62	30.98	38.3	12.19483896256	0.0249	0.1749	4.95	5.1249	T	F	13.62	68.62	30	303.69853109077	3.7035546798181	0.91475611954481	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.39	34.03	39.71	12.122818666667	0.0405	0.1905	4.95	5.1405	T	F	13.39	68.39	30	303.64470743672	3.6810297273484	0.91035004077179	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.68	35.31	39.995	11.652924051108	0.0402	0.1902	4.95	5.1402	T	F	12.68	67.68	30	303.29329456408	3.5342537267656	0.89568666330723	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.27	35.22	39.745	12.034262981212	0.0424	0.3524	4.95	5.3024	T	F	12.27	66.27	30	303.57851272536	3.6533436575822	0.88646768964635	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-12-01 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.31	35.21	39.76	12.242054299239	0.1358	0.6558	4.95	5.6058	T	F	12.31	67.31	30	303.73381166155	3.7183258148755	0.88739179627402	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-12-01 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.62	35.27	39.945	11.885005389839	0.132	0.672	4.95	5.622	T	F	12.62	61.62	30	303.46691009227	3.6067058620843	0.89437240455898	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	46.58	32.04	39.31	12.081398444062	0.0061	0.2761	4.95	5.2261	T	F	14.58	81.58	30	303.61374798407	3.6680786624907	0.93141298377823	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-30 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	63	143	46.82	32.79	39.805	12.142027751966	0.0142	0.2642	4.95	5.2142	T	F	14.82	77.82	30	303.65906411901	3.6870367836691	0.93515780370551	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	47.05	34.19	40.62	11.784882341314	0.0131	0.2931	4.95	5.2431	T	F	15.05	80.05	30	303.39202254234	3.5754392889549	0.93859621362055	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-30 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	46.6	33.33	39.965	11.769953601465	0.069	0.349	4.95	5.299	T	F	14.6	80.6	30	303.38085488285	3.5707785855438	0.93173126581467	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-30 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	46.22	33.41	39.815	11.792284730196	0.0856	0.4256	4.95	5.3756	T	F	14.22	75.22	30	303.39755984923	3.5777504121887	0.92548695402036	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	47.34	34.09	40.715	12.671371480385	0.0287	0.3787	4.95	5.3287	T	F	15.34	67.34	30	304.05441494721	3.8527864420473	0.9427273038589	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	47.36	34.16	40.76	12.61330173564	0.0137	0.1737	4.96	5.1337	T	F	15.36	89.36	30	304.01107036387	3.8345833614744	0.94300396998927	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	47.51	33.86	40.685	12.678625119992	0.0007	0.1707	4.96	5.1307	T	F	15.51	88.51	30	304.05982878028	3.855060583154	0.94504566729653	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	MH
2019-11-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	47.44	32.39	39.915	12.681452105233	0.0004	0.1204	4.96	5.0804	T	F	15.44	88.44	30	304.06193870454	3.8559469127058	0.94410016009906	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	41.6	32.82	37.21	12.816568156105	0.0017	0.1317	4.96	5.0917	T	F	9.6	85.6	30	304.16276508764	3.898322809295	0.81231949350592	94	4	3	1	2	3	2	24	WET	M
2019-11-29 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.47	31.11	38.29	12.547227335603	0.0006	0.1006	4.96	5.0606	T	F	13.47	82.47	30	303.96174314657	3.8138770925861	0.91190134019486	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-29 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.48	30.4	37.94	13.844715602946	0.0008	0.0508	4.96	5.0108	T	F	13.48	81.48	30	304.92885750699	4.2216533113155	0.91209384153517	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.69	31.75	38.22	13.762264270628	0.0129	0.1129	4.97	5.0829	T	F	12.69	98.69	30	304.86749519476	4.1956670363947	0.89590455292054	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.73	29.08	36.905	13.989488513517	0.0008	0.0408	4.97	5.0108	T	F	12.73	99.73	30	305.03656998552	4.267305592015	0.89677282225294	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.75	29.07	36.91	13.985488784742	0.0008	0.0408	4.96	5.0008	T	F	12.75	99.75	30	305.03359467972	4.2660439173627	0.89720498600706	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.22	30.95	38.085	14.236735644028	0.0031	0.2231	4.96	5.1831	T	F	13.22	93.22	30	305.22043273833	4.3453426140516	0.90698648231634	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.4	30.96	38.18	13.797896568739	0.003	0.153	4.96	5.113	T	F	13.4	92.4	30	304.89401520541	4.2068960862319	0.91054505282556	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.15	31.54	38.345	13.050255125087	0.003	0.153	4.96	5.113	T	F	13.15	93.15	30	304.33706546605	3.9716763483522	0.90557478771311	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.25	32.51	38.88	12.811872261167	0.002	0.082	4.98	5.062	T	F	13.25	110.25	30	304.15926149439	3.8968496053169	0.90758671129981	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.84	29.98	37.91	12.901260859587	0.002	0.062	4.97	5.032	T	F	13.84	110.84	30	304.22594688895	3.9248983010692	0.91881736822025	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.84	29.97	37.905	12.939805325593	0.002	0.072	4.98	5.052	T	F	13.84	109.84	30	304.25469703584	3.9369965490411	0.91881736822025	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	45.47	30.9	38.185	13.092873215377	0.0007	0.0307	4.97	5.0007	T	F	13.47	99.47	30	304.36884191891	3.9850626579555	0.91190134019486	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.96	30.72	37.84	13.148502348496	0.0007	0.0607	5	5.0607	T	F	12.96	102.96	30	304.41031435388	4.0025397331883	0.90166378375071	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-27 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.96	30.71	37.835	9.2821784232447	0.0007	0.0607	4.97	5.0307	T	F	12.96	99.96	30	301.51391109012	2.7987059198288	0.90166378375071	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	40.54	30.91	35.725	9.6801825178957	0.1891	0.6591	5	5.6591	T	F	8.54	105.54	30	301.81338539831	2.9216086569996	0.77604840871284	94	4	3	1	3	3	2	36	WET	M
2019-11-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	43.15	33.84	38.495	9.4814140634715	0.3681	0.7381	5	5.7381	T	F	11.15	109.15	30	301.66386185232	2.8601999822077	0.85837909550568	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	43.15	33.85	38.5	9.606519036681	0.3681	0.7381	5	5.7381	T	F	11.15	107.15	30	301.75798085747	2.8988437875777	0.85837909550568	94	5	3	1	3	3	2	40.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.3	31.07	37.685	9.5623407912984	0.0005	0.0605	5.04	5.1005	T	F	12.3	102.3	30	301.72474808457	2.8851948663533	0.88716127322981	94	5	3	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	M
2019-11-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	43.72	31.3	37.51	9.8078067838138	0.0703	0.1803	5.09	5.2703	T	F	11.72	105.72	30	301.90935094867	2.9610685803311	0.87321201464802	94	5	3	1	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2019-11-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	63	143	43.73	31.32	37.525	5.9436730372504	0.0703	0.1803	4.34	4.5203	T	F	11.73	103.73	30	298.98992893027	1.7770983789923	0.87346223484164	94	5	3	1	2	4	2	36	WET	M
2019-11-25 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	44.57	30.23	37.4	5.9181065615907	0.1053	0.1953	4.51	4.7053	T	F	12.57	115.57	30	298.97051742428	1.7693393808908	0.89326810605189	94	5	3	1	2	4	2	36	WET	M
2019-11-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	63	143	42.64	27.9	35.27	6.1248053511497	0.0403	0.0703	4.51	4.5803	T	F	10.64	112.64	30	299.12741867294	1.8320972145636	0.84415005661292	94	4	3	1	1	4	2	16	WET	M
2019-11-25 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	38.45	27.91	33.18	6.5164297558551	0.0252	0.0552	4.51	4.5652	T	F	6.45	108.45	30	299.42446775836	1.9511785113316	0.69408435670996	94	3	3	1	1	4	2	14	WET	M
2019-11-25 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	31	28.09	29.545	6.665210298228	0.0002	0.0002	4.55	4.5502	T	F	-1	95	30	299.53724112134	1.9964787042247	0.34873259901935	94	2	3	1	1	4	2	12	WET	L
2019-11-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	63	143	30.93	30.44	30.685	6.8193370191949	0.0007	0.0007	4.7	4.7007	T	F	-1.07	104.93	30	299.65402187223	2.043441764304	0.34562278990634	94	2	3	1	1	4	2	12	WET	L