Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 22, 2019

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DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.88°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.810 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 273 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.43 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 40 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 309.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.72 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-23 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	53	133	45.10004	32.66006	38.88005	5.5593720833333	0	0.02	4.43	4.45	T	F	13.10004	273.10004	40	309.85437523222	1.7225957635647	0.81038240866493	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-23 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	34.54	34.54	34.54	4.9861146666667	0.0025	0.0225	4.43	4.4525	T	F	2.54	262.54	40	309.43465403538	1.5428766668607	0.42523393509057	88	2	4	2	1	4	2	16	WET	M
2019-11-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	44.95	38.64	41.795	5.3683266666667	0.0071	0.0271	4.43	4.4571	T	F	12.95	272.95	40	309.71456563043	1.6626489617289	0.8062413851778	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.57	27.89	36.73	5.3039321214628	0.0098	0.0298	4.43	4.4598	T	F	13.57	273.57	40	309.66742554761	1.6424550053327	0.82299767129808	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	40.76	27.75	34.255	4.9911863333333	0.0112	0.0312	4.43	4.4612	T	F	8.76	268.76	40	309.43837003165	1.5444645635109	0.67017408256033	88	3	4	2	1	4	2	18	WET	M
2019-11-22 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.29	28.66	36.975	3.116204	0.0036	0.0236	4.43	4.4536	T	F	13.29	251.29	40	308.06130796778	0.95998188013442	0.81554659936071	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-21 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.59	32.94	39.265	4.2187586666667	0.0028	0.0328	4.43	4.4628	T	F	13.59	272.59	40	308.87186248988	1.3030558467686	0.82352252999283	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.79	34.91	40.35	4.059132	0.0018	0.0318	4.43	4.4618	T	F	13.79	272.79	40	308.7546517705	1.2532758871505	0.82871699668555	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.77	35.17	40.47	3.2853253333333	0.0013	0.0313	4.43	4.4613	T	F	13.77	272.77	40	308.18578671117	1.0124905724555	0.82820198190227	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.51	37.46	41.985	3.0073453333333	0.0014	0.0314	4.43	4.4614	T	F	14.51	274.51	40	307.98115619521	0.92620569283828	0.84659998268027	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.71	37.53	42.12	2.9908330833333	0.0012	0.0312	4.43	4.4612	T	F	14.71	269.71	40	307.96899642065	0.92108386313584	0.85134023788166	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.3	37.01	41.655	1.9026586666667	0.0009	0.0109	4.43	4.4409	T	F	14.3	267.3	40	307.16652936513	0.58443305920648	0.84151638911725	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.44	37.19	41.315	2.78682	0.0004	0.0204	4.43	4.4504	T	F	13.44	278.44	40	307.81871720347	0.85783535747698	0.81956214630257	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.54	35.81	40.675	2.9715933333333	0	0.01	4.43	4.44	T	F	13.54	278.54	40	307.95482744637	0.91511651220746	0.82220854045136	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	44.31	36.23	40.27	2.466507212276	0.0053	0.0153	4.43	4.4453	T	F	12.31	277.31	40	307.58261263914	0.75865473244513	0.78796848149478	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	44.37	35.42	39.895	2.4737986666667	0.0027	0.0127	4.43	4.4427	T	F	12.37	276.37	40	307.58798935276	0.76091075794354	0.78972313018936	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	44.78	35.27	40.025	2.2324459166667	0.0039	0.0139	4.43	4.4439	T	F	12.78	272.78	40	307.40996308067	0.6862761168221	0.80148357390692	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-20 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.11	35.9	41.005	1.4367234452664	0.0006	0.0106	4	4.0106	T	F	14.11	275.11	40	306.82224975349	0.44081871975022	0.83682305510553	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.12	34.94	41.03	1.555252	0.0007	0.0107	4.04	4.0507	T	F	15.12	286.12	40	306.909869167	0.47732218784171	0.86074950819519	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.63	34.84	41.235	1.6773773333333	0	0.01	4.04	4.05	T	F	15.63	285.63	40	307.00011982595	0.51495504232667	0.87187832810864	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	48.09	34.74	41.415	1.311348973486	0.0006	0.0006	4.04	4.0406	T	F	16.09	287.09	40	306.72954094593	0.40222946865728	0.88137412119231	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	42.68	35.9	39.29	1.7519752493551	0.0002	0.0002	4.08	4.0802	T	F	10.68	274.68	40	307.05523393739	0.53795317004323	0.7371367426966	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	49.27	36.07	42.67	1.2410021788593	0.0002	0.0002	4.3	4.3002	T	F	17.27	283.27	40	306.67750971003	0.3805874577573	0.90343595779948	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	49.29	35.53	42.41	0	0.0004	0.0004	3.8	3.8004	T	F	17.29	272.29	40	305.75808571994	0	0.9037820500221	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.75	34.06	39.905	0.72345956400021	0.0025	0.0025	4.46	4.4625	T	F	13.75	276.75	40	306.29442904948	0.22159163409583	0.82768598161915	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.4	35.29	41.345	0.35526340712051	0.0022	0.0022	4.52	4.5222	T	F	15.4	279.4	40	306.02158663737	0.10871827152122	0.86693810329162	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.42	35.28	41.35	0	0.0022	0.0022	4.47	4.4722	T	F	15.42	281.42	40	305.75808571994	0	0.86737280695068	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	48.59	36.76	42.675	0	0.0014	0.0014	4.41	4.4114	T	F	16.59	275.59	40	305.75808571994	0	0.89112093290022	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.66	35.96	41.81	0	0.0014	0.0014	4.47	4.4714	T	F	15.66	281.66	40	305.75808571994	0	0.87251321656853	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.69	35.98	41.835	0.1171809663397	0.0014	0.0014	3.43	3.4314	F	F	15.69	271.69	40	305.84502579933	0.035839215673356	0.87314592055165	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	DRY	L
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.18	34.06	40.12	1.2939334767825	0.0008	0.0008	3.47	3.4708	F	F	14.18	285.18	40	306.7166606305	0.39687095507673	0.8385625550543	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	DRY	L
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.55	34.88	41.215	1.0510510374529	0.0008	0.0008	3.42	3.4208	F	F	15.55	285.55	40	306.53696797589	0.32218599820873	0.87017459990169	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	DRY	L
2019-11-17 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	47.94	34.5	41.22	0	0.0008	0.0008	3.68	3.6808	F	F	15.94	287.94	40	305.75808571994	0	0.87833373941731	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	44.55	34.64	39.595	0.1964151820443	0	0	4.19	4.19	T	F	12.55	277.55	40	305.90379738203	0.060084150050832	0.79493575208555	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.91	34.36	40.135	0.30054389458864	0	0	4.54	4.54	T	F	13.91	279.91	40	305.98101634903	0.091960726323728	0.83178637841522	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	45.93	34.36	40.145	0	0	0	4.73	4.73	T	F	13.93	280.93	40	305.75808571994	0	0.83229448913896	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.15	31.8	38.975	0	0.0004	0.0004	4.21	4.2104	T	F	14.15	289.15	40	305.75808571994	0	0.8378185373098	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	M
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.97	34.12	40.545	0	0.0004	0.0004	3.9	3.9004	T	F	14.97	295.97	40	305.75808571994	0	0.85735508417972	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.99	34.13	40.56	0	0.0004	0.0004	4.02	4.0204	T	F	14.99	291.99	40	305.75808571994	0	0.85781086973164	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	51.16	38.45	44.805	0	0.0011	0.0011	3.65	3.6511	F	F	19.16	297.16	40	305.75808571994	0	0.93226961866601	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	53	133	50.99	38.33	44.66	0	0.0011	0.0011	4.07	4.0711	T	F	18.99	302.99	40	305.75808571994	0	0.92998444630227	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	53	133	51	38.33	44.665	0	0.0011	0.0011	3.71	3.7111	F	F	19	292	40	305.75808571994	0	0.93012048412622	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	48.73	38.88	43.805	0	0.0008	0.0008	3.58	3.5808	F	F	16.73	295.73	40	305.75808571994	0	0.89374418505913	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	53	133	50.11	39.5	44.805	0	0	0	3.2	3.2	F	F	18.11	298.11	40	305.75808571994	0	0.91720035308832	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-15 12:00:14	FORECAST	2020	53	133	46.26	39.51	42.885	0	0	0	3.57	3.57	F	F	14.26	294.26	40	305.75808571994	0	0.84053573123196	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	53	133	41.81	39.82	40.815	0	0	0	3.32	3.32	F	F	9.81	293.81	40	305.75808571994	0	0.70766174331725	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	42.71	42.17	42.44	0	0	0	3.27	3.27	F	F	10.71	298.71	40	305.75808571994	0	0.73812538958769	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L