Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 23, 2019

[ Friday, November 22, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 24, 2019 ]

DAY 54 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.83°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.10°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.96°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.520 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 253 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.45 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 39 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.80 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.74 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 18.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-24 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	54	134	36.82994	31.1	33.96497	5.6217079166667	0.0099999999999909	0.0099999999999909	4.45	4.46	T	F	4.82994	252.82994	39	308.80349667732	1.7360030619652	0.52041474216691	88	3	4	2	1	4	2	18	WET	M
2019-11-24 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	55	135	32.57	32.57	32.57	4.996884	0.0213	0.0213	4.45	4.4713	T	F	0.57	248.57	39	308.34432100556	1.5407608041235	0.33152856461371	88	2	4	2	1	4	2	16	WET	M
2019-11-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.05	35.93	40.99	5.2900404856888	0.0551	0.0551	4.45	4.5051	T	F	14.05	262.05	39	308.55984897083	1.6322940933137	0.86547506737081	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	47.54	30.05	38.795	5.139164	0.0471	0.0471	4.45	4.4971	T	F	15.54	263.54	39	308.44894497363	1.5851697138465	0.89898408708996	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	M
2019-11-23 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	42.54	29.8	36.17	4.7692200833333	0.0476	0.0476	4.45	4.4976	T	F	10.54	258.54	39	308.17683227855	1.4697631377209	0.75923805260661	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	M
2019-11-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	48.01	34.47	41.24	3.87168	0.0404	0.0404	4.45	4.4904	T	F	16.01	254.01	39	307.51558190508	1.1906019281502	0.90817490489721	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-22 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	48.3	33.33	40.815	4.9092906666667	0.0578	0.0678	4.45	4.5178	T	F	16.3	264.3	39	308.2798914448	1.513435593791	0.91352902633698	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-22 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.64	36.95	41.295	4.900872	0.0596	0.0696	4.45	4.5196	T	F	13.64	261.64	39	308.27369831209	1.5108099363942	0.85505120635689	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.31	37.54	41.425	4.26652	0.0678	0.0778	4.45	4.5278	T	F	13.31	261.31	39	307.80666059465	1.3132632735603	0.84627722095263	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.88	37.56	41.72	4.2023987881294	0.0357	0.0457	4.45	4.4957	T	F	13.88	262.88	39	307.75940986028	1.2933277710323	0.86121696658446	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.11	37.76	41.935	3.8822183333333	0.0615	0.0715	4.45	4.5215	T	F	14.11	258.11	39	307.52335462724	1.193872805262	0.86695634919981	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-22 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.93	37.42	41.675	2.0096413333333	0.0513	0.0513	4.45	4.5013	T	F	13.93	239.93	39	306.13893317001	0.61522945384102	0.86247874249252	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.16	37.99	41.575	3.066768	0.1374	0.1474	4.45	4.5974	T	F	13.16	261.16	39	306.92129049172	0.94125639219871	0.84217547216479	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	MH
2019-11-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.66	37.56	41.61	2.9410893333333	0.1295	0.1395	4.45	4.5895	T	F	13.66	261.66	39	306.82838833097	0.90240970008407	0.85557193536228	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.26	37.39	41.325	2.1827533333333	0.1356	0.1456	4.45	4.5956	T	F	13.26	261.26	39	306.26719361777	0.66850573775983	0.84491786360743	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	MH
2019-11-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.06	37.66	41.86	1.9818533333333	0.0526	0.0626	4.45	4.5126	T	F	14.06	264.06	39	306.11833950368	0.60668165153982	0.86572272843368	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	47.17	37.18	42.175	1.8808264166667	0.0046	0.0146	4.45	4.4646	T	F	15.17	260.17	39	306.04345628045	0.57561461722023	0.89129180256751	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.24	36.52	41.38	0.835784	0.0041	0.0141	4.43	4.4441	T	F	14.24	256.24	39	305.26772090881	0.25513787685204	0.87012727925462	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.12	34.53	40.325	1.798556	0.0836	0.0936	4.44	4.5336	T	F	14.12	267.12	39	305.98246156271	0.55032659213837	0.86720213695306	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.68	35.68	40.68	2.058496	0.1055	0.1055	4.44	4.5455	T	F	13.68	267.68	39	306.1751358035	0.63026029235097	0.85609140576366	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	46.19	35.22	40.705	1.5560338789427	0.1295	0.1395	4.44	4.5795	T	F	14.19	266.19	39	305.80258315537	0.47583917965795	0.86891392063074	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	40.02	33.74	36.88	1.8054986666667	0.2327	0.2327	4.44	4.6727	T	F	8.02	259.02	39	305.98760930017	0.55246022060798	0.66122301278419	88	3	4	2	2	4	2	36	WET	M
2019-11-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	43.43	33.47	38.45	1.4846605833333	0.2373	0.2373	4.44	4.6773	T	F	11.43	259.43	39	305.74962454873	0.45393441593646	0.7897642935196	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-20 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	43.44	32.64	38.04	0.68205011193307	0.2348	0.2348	4.01	4.2448	T	F	11.44	261.44	39	305.15343035092	0.2081299313276	0.79009387137048	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-19 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.94	34.51	39.725	0.75782933333333	0.2786	0.2786	4.05	4.3286	T	F	12.94	273.94	39	305.20977256047	0.23129691846632	0.83603107818239	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.02	33.73	39.375	0.96949866666667	0.2935	0.2935	4.05	4.3435	T	F	13.02	274.02	39	305.36709227108	0.29605298880069	0.83828308185021	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.05	33.71	39.38	0.60079164015265	0.2935	0.2935	4.04	4.3335	T	F	13.05	275.05	39	305.09300224233	0.18329732521627	0.83912237483996	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-19 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	47.32	34.83	41.075	0.95209258268841	0.003	0.003	4.08	4.083	T	F	15.32	265.32	39	305.35415868019	0.29072542957247	0.89445942971655	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	47.85	34.1	40.975	0.40853817885932	0.0143	0.0143	4.3	4.3143	T	F	15.85	273.85	39	304.94998270187	0.12458371057621	0.90511809215743	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	47.88	34.09	40.985	0	0.0143	0.0143	3.8	3.8143	T	F	15.88	262.88	39	304.64583450678	0	0.9056968646767	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2019-11-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.39	32.73	38.56	0	0.0349	0.0349	4.46	4.4949	T	F	12.39	264.39	39	304.64583450678	0	0.82000259227256	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	M
2019-11-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.79	34.84	40.315	0	0.0358	0.0358	4.52	4.5558	T	F	13.79	267.79	39	304.64583450678	0	0.85892601107048	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.83	34.84	40.335	0	0.0358	0.0358	4.47	4.5058	T	F	13.83	269.83	39	304.64583450678	0	0.85994735172419	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	45.5	34.32	39.91	0	0.0204	0.0204	4.41	4.4304	T	F	13.5	264.5	39	304.64583450678	0	0.85137083673109	88	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	M
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.62	33.54	39.08	0	0.0264	0.0264	4.47	4.4964	T	F	12.62	269.62	39	304.64583450678	0	0.8268212178993	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	M
2019-11-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.66	33.56	39.11	0	0.0264	0.0264	3.43	3.4564	F	F	12.66	259.66	39	304.64583450678	0	0.82799009345737	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.03	32.96	38.495	0.75371747678245	0.0026	0.0026	3.47	3.4726	F	F	12.03	272.03	39	305.20671565392	0.23003963561973	0.80899752541523	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	DRY	L
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.64	33.23	38.935	0.44643770411957	0.0026	0.0026	3.42	3.4226	F	F	12.64	273.64	39	304.97818211766	0.13615375943117	0.82740628507497	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	DRY	L
2019-11-17 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.7	33.4	39.05	0	0.0026	0.0026	3.68	3.6826	F	F	12.7	275.7	39	304.64583450678	0	0.8291539325399	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.14	32.24	38.19	0	0.0457	0.0457	4.19	4.2357	T	F	12.14	265.14	39	304.64583450678	0	0.81240306720609	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	M
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	43.59	32.07	37.83	0	0.2559	0.2559	4.54	4.7959	T	F	11.59	266.59	39	304.64583450678	0	0.79500106558879	88	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	54	134	43.61	32.09	37.85	0	0.2559	0.2559	4.73	4.9859	T	F	11.61	267.61	39	304.64583450678	0	0.79565017650689	88	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	M
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	43.51	30.82	37.165	0	0.0005	0.0005	4.21	4.2105	T	F	11.51	275.51	39	304.64583450678	0	0.79239241666286	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	M
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	44.84	33.76	39.3	0	0	0	3.9	3.9	T	F	12.84	283.84	39	304.64583450678	0	0.83318767343719	88	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	54	134	40.23	33.78	37.005	0	0	0	4.02	4.02	T	F	8.23	275.23	39	304.64583450678	0	0.66996113551354	88	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	M
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	54	134	40.58	38.18	39.38	0	0.0005	0.0005	3.65	3.6505	F	F	8.58	280.58	39	304.64583450678	0	0.68431895546854	88	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	54	134	38.86	37.73	38.295	0	0.0005	0.0005	4.07	4.0705	T	F	6.86	284.86	39	304.64583450678	0	0.61149575702927	88	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	M