Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 21, 2019

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DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.99°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.898 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 284 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 311.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.75 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 44.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-22 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	52	132	49.98992	30.97994	40.48493	5.6364716666667	0	0.45	4	4.45	T	F	17.98992	283.98992	41	311.00306092192	1.752959941133	0.8979862177764	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-22 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	53	133	27.7	27.7	27.7	4	0	0.45	4	4.45	T	F	-4.3	261.7	41	309.80805230475	1.239232209219	0.19754845594383	88	1	4	2	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.14	37.67	43.405	4.2894426666667	0.005	0.455	4	4.455	T	F	17.14	283.14	41	310.01977516557	1.3298120511056	0.88281983600801	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.52	32.71	41.115	4.110464	0.0083	0.4583	4	4.4583	T	F	17.52	283.52	41	309.88887338972	1.273787058069	0.88978680738677	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	44.8	31.89	38.345	4.1072904166667	0.0134	0.4634	4	4.4634	T	F	12.8	278.8	41	309.88655175099	1.2727940642607	0.7811584940454	88	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	WET	M
2019-11-21 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.54	32.3	40.42	2.943676	0.0149	0.4449	4	4.4449	T	F	16.54	276.54	41	309.03404558075	0.90969610315897	0.87119620042257	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.01	38.32	43.665	3.7899533333333	0.0079	0.4479	4	4.4479	T	F	17.01	289.01	41	309.65430890252	1.1735753802061	0.88036647926476	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.65	37.74	43.195	3.837076	0.0043	0.4443	4	4.4443	T	F	16.65	288.65	41	309.68880741816	1.1882994904128	0.87338481962566	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.9	35.85	42.375	3.3541845456093	0.0035	0.4435	4	4.4435	T	F	16.9	288.9	41	309.33508674169	1.0375669673637	0.87826253229448	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.33	36.69	42.51	3.323264	0	0.44	4	4.44	T	F	16.33	288.33	41	309.31242248691	1.0279268384036	0.8669455992325	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.93	36.63	42.78	3.09371925	0.0013	0.4413	4	4.4413	T	F	16.93	283.93	41	309.1441142673	0.95640509733293	0.87883888960169	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-20 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.29	36.2	42.745	2.3148341119331	0.0004	0.0104	4	4.0104	T	F	17.29	285.29	41	308.57228333119	0.71429364745211	0.88560622354171	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.05	34.83	41.44	2.46168	0.0002	0.0502	4	4.0502	T	F	16.05	295.05	41	308.68017913515	0.75987182337341	0.86112984250802	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.16	34.8	40.98	2.6351373333333	0.001	0.051	4	4.051	T	F	15.16	294.16	41	308.80757600787	0.8137503723545	0.84151092192669	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.57	34.83	41.2	2.218924973486	0.0011	0.0411	4	4.0411	T	F	15.57	294.57	41	308.50179184838	0.68454233029755	0.85076358522513	88	5	4	2	1	4	2	22	WET	MH
2019-11-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.13	34.13	40.63	2.5942792493551	0.0002	0.0802	4	4.0802	T	F	15.13	288.13	41	308.77757257418	0.80105524919542	0.84081947051064	88	4	4	2	1	4	2	20	WET	MH
2019-11-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.78	34.11	40.945	2.2940461788593	0.0008	0.3008	4	4.3008	T	F	15.78	289.78	41	308.55700603382	0.70784402065217	0.85536058300208	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.89	33.91	40.9	0.26354029623201	0.0016	0.4916	3.31	3.8016	T	F	15.89	278.89	41	307.06086906385	0.080922912394345	0.85773016933411	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	46.77	34.53	40.65	1.4552822306669	0.0019	0.5819	3.88	4.4619	T	F	14.77	286.77	41	307.93991512447	0.4481394865937	0.83236860519387	88	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	MH
2019-11-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.26	34.39	40.825	1.1989887404538	0.0017	0.6417	3.88	4.5217	T	F	15.26	288.26	41	307.75109387047	0.36899009641304	0.84380154827043	88	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	MH
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.81	34.24	41.525	0.55741192117254	0.002	0.592	3.88	4.472	T	F	16.81	289.81	41	307.27788025625	0.17128035356746	0.87652194687486	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	WET	MH
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	41.41	34.71	38.06	0.77779423345538	0.0008	0.5908	3.82	4.4108	T	F	9.41	283.41	41	307.44051658831	0.23912546093293	0.67495610175556	88	3	4	2	3	4	2	54	WET	M
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.58	32.79	40.185	0.29292248551796	0.0016	0.5416	3.93	4.4716	T	F	15.58	289.58	41	307.08257379953	0.08995139077661	0.85098467183851	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	WET	MH
2019-11-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.59	32.24	39.915	1.0945116330064	0.0012	0.5512	2.88	3.4312	F	F	15.59	279.59	41	307.67408630026	0.33675286663023	0.85120554014301	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.95	33.73	40.84	2.1115828101158	0.0021	0.5821	2.89	3.4721	T	F	15.95	294.95	41	308.42287693129	0.65126044517457	0.85901156941909	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.99	32.44	40.215	2.0195803707862	0.0023	0.4823	2.94	3.4223	F	F	15.99	293.99	41	308.35522221893	0.62274815402277	0.85986148649912	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.23	32.54	40.385	0.870560574204	0.0023	0.4923	3.19	3.6823	T	F	16.23	296.23	41	307.50894847888	0.26770516676064	0.86488803660708	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.93	33.34	40.635	0.9714791820443	0.001	0.371	3.82	4.191	T	F	15.93	288.93	41	307.58337582541	0.2988108463573	0.85858530622015	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.56	33.19	40.375	1.0354278945886	0.001	0.431	4.11	4.541	T	F	15.56	289.56	41	307.63052804669	0.31852922996657	0.85054228028705	88	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	WET	MH
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.58	33.19	40.385	0	0.001	0.581	4.15	4.731	T	F	15.58	290.58	41	306.86611839879	0	0.85098467183851	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.75	31.71	39.73	0.39435805291945	0.0006	0.5406	3.67	4.2106	T	F	15.75	298.75	41	307.15749219371	0.12113003056113	0.85470975735691	88	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	WET	M
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.12	34.27	41.195	0	0.0006	0.5806	3.32	3.9006	T	F	16.12	305.12	41	306.86611839879	0	0.86259971146035	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.16	34.31	41.235	0	0.0006	0.6906	3.33	4.0206	T	F	16.16	301.16	41	306.86611839879	0	0.86343486383726	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	50.46	36.22	43.34	0	0.0021	0.3321	3.32	3.6521	T	F	18.46	302.46	41	306.86611839879	0	0.90573645720446	88	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.79	33.7	41.745	0	0.0021	0.6621	3.41	4.0721	T	F	17.79	307.79	41	306.86611839879	0	0.89455367079404	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	52	132	49.82	33.68	41.75	0	0.0021	0.8121	2.9	3.7121	T	F	17.82	296.82	41	306.86611839879	0	0.89507400265876	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	51.12	37.27	44.195	0	0.0011	0.5811	3	3.5811	T	F	19.12	303.12	41	306.86611839879	0	0.91587485349773	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	51.8	37.83	44.815	0	0.0011	0.4611	2.74	3.2011	F	F	19.8	303.8	41	306.86611839879	0	0.92544355416738	88	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-15 12:00:14	FORECAST	2020	52	132	51.82	37.84	44.83	0	0.0011	0.4611	3.11	3.5711	T	F	19.82	303.82	41	306.86611839879	0	0.92571189826842	88	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	52	132	52.45	37.83	45.14	0	0	0.39	2.93	3.32	F	F	20.45	308.45	41	306.86611839879	0	0.93379368415557	88	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	53.32	38.3	45.81	0	0	0.57	2.7	3.27	F	F	21.32	312.32	41	306.86611839879	0	0.94381717110697	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	52	132	53.33	38.3	45.815	0	0	0.57	2.83	3.4	F	F	21.33	299.33	41	306.86611839879	0	0.94392502976569	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	52	132	47.58	33.62	40.6	0	0.0028	0.8728	3.53	4.4028	T	F	15.58	304.58	41	306.86611839879	0	0.85098467183851	88	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	WET	MH
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	48.18	32.21	40.195	0	0.0029	1.0229	3.09	4.1129	T	F	16.18	311.18	41	306.86611839879	0	0.86385113930408	88	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	WET	MH
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	52	132	43.41	32.23	37.82	0	0.0016	1.0216	3.09	4.1116	T	F	11.41	306.41	41	306.86611839879	0	0.74017287667119	88	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	52	132	35.71	33.77	34.74	0	0.0018	0.9618	2.39	3.3518	T	F	3.71	296.71	41	306.86611839879	0	0.46474124618694	88	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	36.45	35.08	35.765	0	0.0009	0.9209	2.58	3.5009	T	F	4.45	295.45	41	306.86611839879	0	0.492774021053	88	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H