Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 20, 2019

[ Tuesday, November 19, 2019 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 21, 2019 ]

DAY 51 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/21/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.73°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.64°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.570 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 287 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.16 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.29 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 311.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.57 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 131 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 72.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-21 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	51	131	37.54994	25.73006	31.64	5.0278770833333	0.020000000000039	1.16	3.29	4.45	T	F	5.54994	286.54994	42	311.64904697111	1.5669331013087	0.56960127961154	86	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	L
2019-11-21 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	52	132	31.53	31.53	31.53	4	0.0023	1.1423	3.29	4.4323	T	F	-0.47	280.53	42	310.90072431432	1.2436028972573	0.31344246865109	86	2	4	2	4	4	2	64	WET	L
2019-11-20 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	44.34	35.39	39.865	4.4193645456093	0.0067	1.1467	3.29	4.4367	T	F	12.34	293.34	42	311.20626914933	1.3753339522499	0.82162099330342	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-20 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	44.24	31.46	37.85	4.3660853333333	0.012	1.152	3.29	4.442	T	F	12.24	293.24	42	311.16746849095	1.3585837203888	0.81873800278712	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-20 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	39.22	30.36	34.79	4.1437565833333	0.0091	1.1491	3.29	4.4391	T	F	7.22	288.22	42	311.0055005937	1.288731090538	0.64015239506375	86	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	M
2019-11-20 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.99	29.66	36.825	3.3689167785997	0.0109	0.7209	3.29	4.0109	T	F	11.99	288.99	42	310.44030951594	1.045847567482	0.81140406648532	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-11-19 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.5	32.42	37.96	3.4069213333333	0.0103	0.7603	3.29	4.0503	T	F	11.5	299.5	42	310.46805711162	1.0577402470921	0.79650940591004	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-11-19 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.6	31.78	37.69	3.4754186666667	0.0052	0.7552	3.29	4.0452	T	F	11.6	299.6	42	310.51806109843	1.0791802658786	0.79960469839664	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-11-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.51	31.07	37.29	3.1841196401526	0.002	0.752	3.29	4.042	T	F	11.51	299.51	42	310.30534865446	0.98804935509507	0.79682020986392	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-11-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.11	32.05	37.58	3.4369659160217	0.0011	0.7911	3.29	4.0811	T	F	11.11	294.11	42	310.48999113753	1.0671435168056	0.78416866455569	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	WET	M
2019-11-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.16	33.07	38.115	3.274492845526	0.0022	1.0122	3.29	4.3022	T	F	11.16	295.16	42	310.37135783828	1.0163087906976	0.78577458827918	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.18	31.24	37.21	1.257708296232	0.0014	0.5114	3.29	3.8014	T	F	11.18	284.18	42	308.89467517557	0.38849939563021	0.78641500991946	86	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.49	32.86	38.175	2.2642942306669	0	1.17	3.29	4.46	T	F	11.49	293.49	42	309.63263947164	0.7010993991818	0.79619831911037	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.51	32.77	38.14	2.0563260737872	0.0004	1.2304	3.29	4.5204	T	F	11.51	293.51	42	309.48032514958	0.63639246192922	0.79682020986392	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.9	32.83	37.865	1.4164439211725	0.0002	1.1802	3.29	4.4702	T	F	10.9	293.9	42	309.01117530799	0.43769700083938	0.77734820028579	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.9	31.65	37.275	1.5113662334554	0.0005	1.1205	3.29	4.4105	T	F	10.9	294.9	42	309.08081877993	0.46713431291272	0.77734820028579	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.2	31.83	37.515	1.109478485518	0.0004	1.1804	3.29	4.4704	T	F	11.2	295.2	42	308.78584310935	0.34259124956234	0.78705431677807	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-18 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.04	30.96	37	1.8949409663397	0.0008	1.2308	2.2	3.4308	T	F	11.04	285.04	42	309.36207244813	0.5862228645137	0.781908713047	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.78	32.04	37.41	3.0243521434491	0.003	1.093	2.38	3.473	T	F	10.78	299.78	42	310.18861634565	0.93811960671847	0.77339636798632	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.18	32.33	37.755	2.8828217041196	0.0035	1.0435	2.38	3.4235	T	F	11.18	299.18	42	310.08516915972	0.89392025577923	0.78641500991946	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.6	32.71	38.155	1.7680779075373	0.0032	1.3032	2.38	3.6832	T	F	11.6	300.6	42	309.26908126422	0.54681183006763	0.79960469839664	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	37.77	31.51	34.64	1.8119791820443	0.0013	1.2613	2.93	4.1913	T	F	5.77	293.77	42	309.30126448342	0.56044745222393	0.57907956037726	86	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	M
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.96	30.04	36.5	1.7895545612553	0.0016	1.3216	3.22	4.5416	T	F	10.96	294.96	42	309.28482585356	0.55348207083329	0.77930931713852	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.96	29.88	36.42	0.35135472234615	0.0016	1.6316	3.1	4.7316	T	F	10.96	295.96	42	308.22857858366	0.10829756664741	0.77930931713852	86	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	WET	M
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	42.96	31.17	37.065	1.2559047195861	0.003	1.373	2.84	4.213	T	F	10.96	303.96	42	308.89335121467	0.38794061763928	0.77930931713852	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.61	31.41	37.51	0.86331866666667	0.0018	1.3318	2.57	3.9018	T	F	11.61	309.61	42	308.60501913275	0.26642447364433	0.79991266760522	86	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.65	31.41	37.53	0	0.0018	1.4818	2.54	4.0218	T	F	11.65	305.65	42	307.96994854332	0	0.80114170250281	86	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	WET	M
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.9	32.67	38.285	0	0.0004	1.0104	2.64	3.6504	T	F	11.9	304.9	42	307.96994854332	0	0.80871977995426	86	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.23	32.79	38.01	0	0.0009	1.5709	2.5	4.0709	T	F	11.23	311.23	42	307.96994854332	0	0.78801118437638	86	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.28	32.81	38.045	0	0.0009	2.0709	1.64	3.7109	T	F	11.28	300.28	42	307.96994854332	0	0.78960037393531	86	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.33	32.55	38.94	0.52079429933604	0	1.82	1.76	3.58	T	F	13.33	305.33	42	308.35321954037	0.16058859891854	0.84859276613753	86	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.92	32.65	39.285	0.5162332483666	0	1.41	1.79	3.2	T	F	13.92	304.92	42	308.34986510137	0.15918045249469	0.86330868770626	86	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 12:00:14	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.96	32.66	39.31	0	0	1.67	1.9	3.57	T	F	13.96	304.96	42	307.96994854332	0	0.86426981130941	86	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	51	131	46.32	33.03	39.675	0	0.0013	1.2813	2.04	3.3213	T	F	14.32	309.32	42	307.96994854332	0	0.87271226723474	86	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	46.62	33.25	39.935	0	0.0015	1.0615	2.21	3.2715	T	F	14.62	311.62	42	307.96994854332	0	0.87946383304695	86	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	46.65	33.28	39.965	0	0.0015	0.9915	2.41	3.4015	T	F	14.65	298.65	42	307.96994854332	0	0.88012489559014	86	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.13	32.97	39.05	0	0.0025	1.8625	2.54	4.4025	T	F	13.13	310.13	42	307.96994854332	0	0.8433742842312	86	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.66	33.89	39.775	0	0.0085	1.5585	2.55	4.1085	T	F	13.66	315.66	42	307.96994854332	0	0.85694839233882	86	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	M
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	45.68	33.91	39.795	0	0.0085	1.5585	2.55	4.1085	T	F	13.68	315.68	42	307.96994854332	0	0.85744461028549	86	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	M
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.94	33.71	38.825	0	0.0888	1.1488	2.2	3.3488	T	F	11.94	313.94	42	307.96994854332	0	0.80991566885925	86	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	44.28	34.81	39.545	0	0.047	1.107	2.39	3.497	T	F	12.28	312.28	42	307.96994854332	0	0.81989467480834	86	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	51	131	44.31	34.83	39.57	0	0.047	1.107	2.5	3.607	T	F	12.31	307.31	42	307.96994854332	0	0.82075913807448	86	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	41.11	32.81	36.96	0.10849142602416	0.1213	2.6413	3.06	5.7013	T	T	9.11	308.11	42	308.04983304481	0.033420765673537	0.71448954499159	86	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	WET	H
2019-11-13 16:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	43.11	33.51	38.31	0	0.0109	2.0809	2.95	5.0309	T	F	11.11	307.11	42	307.96994854332	0	0.78416866455569	86	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	51	131	38.37	33.53	35.95	0.067535096350128	0.0079	2.0779	2.92	4.9979	T	F	6.37	303.37	42	308.01967863093	0.020802138674075	0.60467530123677	86	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	35.17	33.13	34.15	0	0.0054	0.7954	2.3	3.0954	F	F	3.17	298.17	42	307.96994854332	0	0.46567425429975	86	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	51	131	31.1	30.81	30.955	0.060703917584094	0.0014	0.8614	2.79	3.6514	T	F	-0.9	289.1	42	308.01464881758	0.018697695856516	0.29688970546816	86	2	4	2	3	4	2	48	DRY	M