Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 19, 2019

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DAY 50 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.72°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.383 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 306 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.43 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.23 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.43 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 43 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 312.43 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 80.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-20 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	50	130	33.72008	30.38	32.05004	4.61121125	0.43000000000001	2.23	2.2	4.43	T	F	1.72008	305.72008	43	312.43277741765	1.440693538097	0.38323819695724	87	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	M
2019-11-20 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	51	131	29.71	29.71	29.71	4.0016663639828	0.0004	1.8004	2.2	4.0004	T	F	-2.29	276.71	43	311.9904621825	1.2484817383992	0.22853107872263	87	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	L
2019-11-19 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.61	33.4	37.005	3.668520973486	0.0372	1.8372	2.2	4.0372	T	F	8.61	312.61	43	311.74842620347	1.1436556399787	0.68098613559941	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-19 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	36.43	31.7	34.065	3.9157912493551	0.0847	1.8847	2.2	4.0847	T	F	4.43	308.43	43	311.92809199416	1.2214452930587	0.50193904298066	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-19 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	37.41	33.54	35.475	3.8215421788593	0.3033	2.1033	2.2	4.3033	T	F	5.41	309.41	43	311.85962422939	1.1917847078758	0.5453885320387	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.05	33.04	36.545	1.7238509628987	0.4928	1.6028	2.2	3.8028	T	F	8.05	298.05	43	310.33149486977	0.53496524624904	0.65839247126226	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	37.57	32.52	35.045	2.8356702306669	0.5832	2.2632	2.2	4.4632	T	F	5.57	306.57	43	311.14244873568	0.88229737937655	0.55244477538143	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-18 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	37.63	33.39	35.51	2.6189007404538	0.64	2.32	2.2	4.52	T	F	5.63	306.63	43	310.98451812977	0.81443758479974	0.55508671567476	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.66	33.61	36.135	1.9597212545059	0.587	2.267	2.2	4.467	T	F	6.66	307.66	43	310.50372859369	0.60850075652838	0.59996302985076	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.02	32.61	35.815	1.9790942334554	0.5922	2.2122	2.2	4.4122	T	F	7.02	309.02	43	310.51787025942	0.61454412641526	0.61537290130725	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.09	33.09	36.09	1.6083118188513	0.5419	2.2719	2.2	4.4719	T	F	7.09	309.09	43	310.24708992114	0.49897406148438	0.61834904806839	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.67	33.27	35.97	2.3546329663397	0.5532	1.2332	2.2	3.4332	T	F	6.67	298.67	43	310.7918642885	0.73180076932387	0.60039331261013	87	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.85	32.93	35.89	3.4937201434491	0.5762	1.2662	2.2	3.4662	T	F	6.85	313.85	43	311.62134838181	1.0887177819703	0.60811708203739	87	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.64	33.25	35.945	3.3821470374529	0.4832	1.2232	2.2	3.4232	T	F	6.64	312.64	43	311.54020674897	1.0536747873035	0.59910210073583	87	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.8	33.41	36.105	2.3202112408707	0.4881	1.4781	2.2	3.6781	T	F	6.8	313.8	43	310.76676098724	0.72104453213156	0.60597571776877	87	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.05	32.88	35.465	2.1385031820443	0.3695	1.9895	2.2	4.1895	T	F	6.05	313.05	43	310.63420736464	0.6642922409011	0.57350540840283	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.22	32.87	35.545	2.1962198945886	0.4309	2.3409	2.2	4.5409	T	F	6.22	309.22	43	310.67631757231	0.68231350942985	0.58091758927158	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.46	33.13	35.795	0.78458805567948	0.5776	2.9276	1.8	4.7276	T	F	6.46	310.46	43	309.64461566958	0.24294346695981	0.59133255497558	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.21	32.75	35.98	1.6839447195861	0.5422	2.2922	1.92	4.2122	T	F	7.21	318.21	43	310.30234491446	0.5225319951939	0.62343468966778	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.22	33.47	36.345	1.3926013333333	0.5761	1.9761	1.92	3.8961	T	F	7.22	323.22	43	310.08944037443	0.43183096811802	0.62385754172553	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.28	33.48	36.88	0.49607869131296	0.6868	2.0968	1.92	4.0168	T	F	8.28	319.28	43	309.4333007324	0.15350326687598	0.66774661517756	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.07	34.82	37.945	0.31487745690437	0.3346	1.6846	1.97	3.6546	T	F	9.07	318.07	43	309.30050304874	0.097391755819232	0.69905987527179	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.73	32.84	36.785	0.19817876153395	0.6584	2.1284	1.94	4.0684	T	F	8.73	324.73	43	309.21494523974	0.061279834895399	0.68574499896268	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.88	35.52	38.2	0.28572393816991	0.8054	2.6454	1.06	3.7054	T	F	8.88	313.88	43	309.27913148274	0.088368451441017	0.69165039868316	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.2	33.56	37.38	1.2191609660027	0.5783	2.4183	1.16	3.5783	T	F	9.2	317.2	43	309.9626208003	0.37789432819963	0.70408282814982	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.46	33.66	37.06	1.2678999150333	0.4601	2.0601	1.14	3.2001	T	F	8.46	316.46	43	309.99826435771	0.3930467730396	0.67499545184848	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 12:00:14	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.48	33.66	37.07	0.7467694751733	0.4601	2.4201	1.15	3.5701	T	F	8.48	316.48	43	309.61692475959	0.23121246840749	0.67579687083114	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.4	33.88	37.64	0.52151772950176	0.3922	1.9422	1.38	3.3222	T	F	9.4	320.4	43	309.45193945129	0.16138467285255	0.71173440537031	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.45	35.04	38.245	0.052176428378062	0.5673	1.6473	1.62	3.2673	T	F	9.45	322.45	43	309.10786770981	0.016128144520657	0.71363263392323	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.46	35.08	38.27	0.060778047438098	0.5673	1.6273	1.77	3.3973	T	F	9.46	309.46	43	309.11417720386	0.018787356125885	0.71401156721412	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.14	34.02	37.58	0.11404053727295	0.8669	2.6069	1.79	4.3969	T	F	9.14	322.14	43	309.15324344918	0.035256001982619	0.70176931954918	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	WET	M
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	43.5	35.97	39.735	0	1.0061	2.3061	1.79	4.0961	T	F	11.5	326.5	43	309.06959209287	0	0.78594013928002	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	43.51	35.98	39.745	0	1.0061	2.2961	1.8	4.0961	T	F	11.51	326.51	43	309.06959209287	0	0.78626473263898	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	50	130	44.14	38.52	41.33	0	0.8657	1.4857	1.77	3.2557	T	F	12.14	327.14	43	309.06959209287	0	0.80613124785703	87	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	45.1	38.7	41.9	0	0.8732	1.6132	1.84	3.4532	T	F	13.1	325.1	43	309.06959209287	0	0.83415556222663	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	50	130	45.11	38.73	41.92	0	0.8732	1.6732	1.89	3.5632	T	F	13.11	320.11	43	309.06959209287	0	0.83443301162503	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.73	34.18	37.955	0	0.8059	3.6559	1.92	5.5759	T	T	9.73	323.73	43	309.06959209287	0	0.72415169129043	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2019-11-13 16:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.22	34.03	37.125	0.2118623895776	0.5701	3.0001	2.02	5.0201	T	F	8.22	321.22	43	309.22497872301	0.065513142909337	0.66531616029252	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.24	34.04	37.14	0.23260092537429	0.5701	3.0001	1.99	4.9901	T	F	8.24	322.24	43	309.24018453356	0.071929553085422	0.66612708758676	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	40.65	33.32	36.985	0	0.2382	1.0882	2	3.0882	F	F	8.65	319.65	43	309.06959209287	0	0.68257578901121	87	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.62	29.13	34.375	0.050072752140579	0.0583	1.6783	1.97	3.6483	T	F	7.62	314.62	43	309.10632459182	0.015477804376372	0.64064481764505	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.65	29.12	34.385	0.049634242479115	0.0583	1.6783	1.68	3.3583	T	F	7.65	303.65	43	309.10600292905	0.01534224230113	0.64189345342522	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.98	31.04	35.01	2.9631323049038	0.0275	3.1075	2.06	5.1675	T	F	6.98	306.98	43	311.23527251806	0.9222312904238	0.61366917657355	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2019-11-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	39.03	32.65	35.84	0.57178409686278	0.0577	3.5277	1.96	5.4877	T	T	7.03	313.03	43	309.48876516023	0.17696075407632	0.61579848609899	87	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2019-11-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	50	130	41.25	35.73	38.49	0	0.0591	2.5991	1.77	4.3691	T	F	9.25	317.25	43	309.06959209287	0	0.70600443949493	87	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	WET	M
2019-11-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	36.43	34.81	35.62	0	0.0786	1.8886	1.92	3.8086	T	F	4.43	306.43	43	309.06959209287	0	0.50193904298066	87	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	50	130	38.17	37.25	37.71	0	0.0762	1.3562	1.92	3.2762	T	F	6.17	314.17	43	309.06959209287	0	0.57874039162545	87	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH