Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 18, 2019

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DAY 49 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/19/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.02°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.16°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.59°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.927 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 17 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 322 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.71 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.20 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 4 in SWE DAY: 44 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 313.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.22 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 129 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 110.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-19 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	49	129	49.02008	32.16002	40.59005	3.9041916666667	0.70999999999998	2.2	1.8	4	T	F	17.02008	322.02008	44	313.00432939983	1.2220288944734	0.92695689649174	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-19 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	50	130	34.5	34.5	34.5	2.0479533461452	0.0191	1.5091	1.8	3.3091	T	F	2.5	289.5	44	311.65791881194	0.63826087768357	0.43081664873217	89	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.05	38.82	42.435	2.2535813333333	0.5926	2.0826	1.8	3.8826	T	F	14.05	319.05	44	311.80738260927	0.70268329704378	0.86866874597634	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.68	33.25	39.965	2.1231466666667	0.5348	2.0248	1.8	3.8248	T	F	14.68	319.68	44	311.71258326266	0.66181153211218	0.88313330778528	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	47.39	34.21	40.8	2.0118635833333	0.6392	2.1292	1.8	3.9292	T	F	15.39	320.39	44	311.63167837086	0.62696042512738	0.89804143212331	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.99	35.46	40.725	2.753764	0.6815	1.0815	1.8	2.8815	F	F	13.99	309.99	44	312.17062218245	0.85964422122363	0.86722953466733	89	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.7	38.89	42.295	3.756224	0.5113	1.0913	1.8	2.8913	F	F	13.7	324.7	44	312.897234693	1.1753121024875	0.86012093957615	89	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.05	38.49	41.77	3.8109453333333	0.5574	1.1374	1.8	2.9374	F	F	13.05	324.05	44	312.93684509773	1.1925852094532	0.84326522630086	89	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.74	39.04	42.39	2.7575733333333	0.8087	1.3887	1.8	3.1887	T	F	13.74	324.74	44	312.17338680272	0.86084100682353	0.86111648349411	89	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	44.97	38.55	41.76	2.506216	0.8912	2.0212	1.8	3.8212	T	F	12.97	324.97	44	311.99090707897	0.78191660317583	0.84110216936027	89	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	44.96	38.68	41.82	2.3887269166667	0.8866	2.3066	1.8	4.1066	T	F	12.96	320.96	44	311.90557270577	0.7450572369806	0.84083042175746	89	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	WET	MH
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.41	38.77	42.09	1.0195186666667	1.0455	2.3455	1.8	4.1455	T	F	13.41	322.41	44	310.90921288499	0.31697774617489	0.85275875408704	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	WET	MH
2019-11-16 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	47.21	39.22	43.215	2.055052	0.8321	1.8721	1.8	3.6721	T	F	15.21	329.21	44	311.66307987639	0.64048383562613	0.89439935598989	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	47.56	39.41	43.485	1.95288	0.748	1.518	1.8	3.318	T	F	15.56	333.56	44	311.58878692421	0.60849551020856	0.9013966906087	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	48.07	40.16	44.115	1.0683733333333	0.79	1.53	1.8	3.33	T	F	16.07	329.07	44	310.94482360713	0.3322051576799	0.91097801180335	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	47.44	40.27	43.855	1.095080123571	0.6815	1.5215	1.8	3.3215	T	F	15.44	327.44	44	310.96428862225	0.34053081161063	0.89903675681541	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	49	129	48.22	40.69	44.455	0.52348116666667	0.9098	1.6098	1.8	3.4098	T	F	16.22	334.22	44	310.54739519031	0.16256571273952	0.91366009743527	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.44	41.6	44.02	0.52394546074703	1.2639	1.9539	0.95	2.9039	T	F	14.44	323.44	44	310.54773406704	0.1627100756097	0.87776171175385	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	49.12	40.45	44.785	0.951496	1.2361	1.8961	1.1	2.9961	T	F	17.12	326.12	44	310.85962302934	0.29578168787392	0.9285013016856	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	48.23	39.81	44.02	0.92306933333333	0.9518	1.6418	1.1	2.7418	F	F	16.23	326.23	44	310.83889689426	0.28692585333026	0.91383673818241	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 12:00:14	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.25	41.22	43.235	0.39256741441776	1.2104	2.0104	1.1	3.1104	T	F	13.25	326.25	44	310.45182854664	0.12187327163382	0.84858791916058	89	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.3	41.08	43.19	0.073713333333333	0.8881	1.5781	1.35	2.9281	F	F	13.3	329.3	44	310.21893303225	0.022867271616917	0.84989963835971	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	50	41.22	45.61	0	0.4918	1.1118	1.59	2.7018	F	F	18	331	44	310.16506492632	0	0.94104413832458	89	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	50.02	41.06	45.54	0	0.4192	1.1192	1.71	2.8292	F	F	18.02	318.02	44	310.16506492632	0	0.94130778574082	89	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.45	40.18	43.315	0.58269733333333	0.9857	1.8157	1.71	3.5257	T	F	14.45	331.45	44	310.59061237624	0.18098032159	0.87798892188071	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	48.19	40.14	44.165	0.262296	0.5363	1.3863	1.7	3.0863	T	F	16.19	333.19	44	310.35669925801	0.081405320788579	0.91312855595356	89	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	48.23	40.15	44.19	0	0.5363	1.3963	1.69	3.0863	T	F	16.23	333.23	44	310.16506492632	0	0.91383673818241	89	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	49	129	50.18	39.92	45.05	0	0.1873	0.6673	1.72	2.3873	F	F	18.18	333.18	44	310.16506492632	0	0.94338388865792	89	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	50.02	40.21	45.115	0	0.1879	0.8179	1.76	2.5779	F	F	18.02	330.02	44	310.16506492632	0	0.94130778574082	89	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	49	129	50.06	40.23	45.145	0	0.1879	0.8979	1.79	2.6879	F	F	18.06	325.06	44	310.16506492632	0	0.94183231276702	89	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	47.39	41.59	44.49	0	1.7068	2.9868	1.78	4.7668	T	F	15.39	332.39	44	310.16506492632	0	0.89804143212331	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-13 16:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.89	40.34	43.615	0	1.4977	2.5777	1.87	4.4477	T	F	14.89	330.89	44	310.16506492632	0	0.88769478255408	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.92	40.37	43.645	0	1.4977	2.5277	1.89	4.4177	T	F	14.92	331.92	44	310.16506492632	0	0.88833592359915	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.06	37.89	41.475	0	0.5531	0.9731	1.88	2.8531	F	F	13.06	329.06	44	310.16506492632	0	0.84353424295751	89	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.66	34.16	39.91	0	0.8036	1.7136	1.88	3.5936	T	F	13.66	324.66	44	310.16506492632	0	0.85912057035048	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.68	34.18	39.93	0	0.8036	1.7136	1.59	3.3036	T	F	13.68	313.68	44	310.16506492632	0	0.85962135833136	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	49	129	41.46	31.99	36.725	3.0712118289853	1.232	3.342	1.8	5.142	T	T	9.46	318.46	44	312.40091791772	0.95944939449477	0.72759874339153	89	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	WET	H
2019-11-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	45.71	34.78	40.245	0.56818978680279	1.7376	3.5776	1.85	5.4276	T	T	13.71	323.71	44	310.58002506922	0.17646839822929	0.86037027779908	89	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	WET	H
2019-11-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	46.12	36.37	41.245	0	1.4529	2.6129	1.7	4.3129	T	F	14.12	326.12	44	310.16506492632	0	0.87033420593247	89	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	44.17	36.51	40.34	0	1.147	1.867	1.86	3.727	T	F	12.17	320.17	44	310.16506492632	0	0.81840492114644	89	4	4	2	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	44.97	38.44	41.705	0	0.763	1.333	1.87	3.203	T	F	12.97	325.97	44	310.16506492632	0	0.84110216936027	89	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	44.98	38.46	41.72	0	0.763	1.333	1.92	3.253	T	F	12.98	314.98	44	310.16506492632	0	0.84137361352167	89	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	40.13	35.59	37.86	0	0.6627	3.4027	1.65	5.0527	T	T	8.13	321.13	44	310.16506492632	0	0.67599666761063	89	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-11-11 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	37.92	32.82	35.37	1.1047958521351	0.404	3.824	1.75	5.574	T	T	5.92	320.92	44	310.97136952017	0.34355987917867	0.58273901473723	89	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2019-11-11 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	37.92	32.84	35.38	0.0085639313984384	0.1459	3.5659	1.76	5.3259	T	T	5.92	321.92	44	310.17132377955	0.0026562859386109	0.58273901473723	89	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2019-11-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	49	129	36.59	34.36	35.475	0	0.0498	3.0298	1.42	4.4498	T	F	4.59	314.59	44	310.16506492632	0	0.523875556907	89	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2019-11-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	39.76	37.67	38.715	0	0.1314	4.0914	1.42	5.5114	T	T	7.76	316.76	44	310.16506492632	0	0.66095625390387	89	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H