Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 16, 2019

[ Friday, November 15, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 17, 2019 ]

DAY 47 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.15°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.26°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.21°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.571 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 325 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.40 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.26 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.21 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 46 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.95 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.58 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 72.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-17 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	47	127	38.15006	30.25994	34.205	4.9983495833333	0.39999999999998	1.26	0.95	2.21	F	F	6.15006	325.15006	46	315.94601494177	1.57920863214	0.57108350337993	87	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2019-11-17 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	37.52	37.52	37.52	3.969824	0.003	0.863	0.95	1.813	F	F	5.52	307.52	46	315.20845985365	1.2513221089301	0.54048793620379	87	3	4	2	3	4	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.28	37.73	41.505	4.19476	0.1219	0.9819	0.95	1.9319	F	F	13.28	332.28	46	315.36992598429	1.3229011507219	0.85451979667904	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	43.47	29.24	36.355	4.188120123571	0.1689	1.0289	0.95	1.9789	F	F	11.47	330.47	46	315.36516099357	1.3207871770304	0.79766943249382	87	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.44	33.43	39.435	3.7198411666667	0.1383	0.9983	0.95	1.9483	F	F	13.44	332.44	46	315.02890605357	1.171857493428	0.85897120720416	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.1	32.84	39.47	3.7819147940804	0.1147	0.1247	0.95	1.0747	F	F	14.1	323.1	46	315.07350197845	1.191581138355	0.87635345487289	87	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-15 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	47	127	43.07	34.67	38.87	4.098984	0.0616	0.2216	0.95	1.1716	F	F	11.07	328.07	46	315.3011862385	1.2924145175726	0.78351676739911	87	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	DRY	M
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	43.4	35.01	39.205	4.0358986666667	0.0409	0.2009	0.95	1.1509	F	F	11.4	328.4	46	315.2558998958	1.2723408660483	0.7952333736824	87	4	4	2	2	4	2	40	DRY	M
2019-11-15 12:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.87	35.43	40.65	3.4774620810844	0.0461	0.2061	0.95	1.1561	F	F	13.87	330.87	46	314.854704862	1.0948952972086	0.8704742171108	87	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.29	36.77	41.53	3.2250826666667	0.0274	0.4374	0.95	1.3874	F	F	14.29	331.29	46	314.67320228584	1.0148470903566	0.88106767050462	87	5	4	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.15	36.96	41.555	3.1520599344105	0.0341	0.6841	0.95	1.6341	F	F	14.15	331.15	46	314.62066514743	0.99170319314881	0.87760650056956	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.63	37.15	41.89	2.8577818203196	0.0551	0.8251	0.95	1.7751	F	F	14.63	313.63	46	314.40884420538	0.89851187911784	0.88918487721469	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.6	38.31	42.455	3.7127466666667	0.0824	0.8524	0.95	1.8024	F	F	14.6	330.6	46	315.02380866204	1.1696035955306	0.88848498556723	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.88	38.63	42.755	3.5318	0.0932	0.8532	0.95	1.8032	F	F	14.88	331.88	46	314.89376760069	1.1121418084121	0.89489553634372	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.71	38.29	42	2.590276	0.1063	0.8563	0.95	1.8063	F	F	13.71	329.71	46	314.21615649371	0.8139065689779	0.86627214367595	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.58	37.99	42.285	2.2628226666667	0.0477	0.8277	0.95	1.7777	F	F	14.58	332.58	46	313.98010956426	0.71048130880449	0.88801664282094	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.26	38.51	42.385	2.10354775	0.0761	0.8961	0.95	1.8461	F	F	14.26	326.26	46	313.86522418201	0.66023048613132	0.88033185456317	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.76	36.35	41.055	1.0447573333333	0.0984	0.9484	0.95	1.8984	F	F	13.76	320.76	46	313.10033354371	0.3271138695389	0.86759521090303	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.91	38.26	42.585	1.99594	0.1382	0.9682	0.96	1.9282	F	F	14.91	330.91	46	313.78758013992	0.62630118270448	0.89556628139215	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-13 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.01	39.37	42.69	2.0168226666667	0.152	1.072	0.96	2.032	F	F	14.01	331.01	46	313.80264962366	0.63288429662105	0.87407546351481	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	48.25	39.02	43.635	0.99001866666667	0.1049	1.0449	0.96	2.0049	F	F	16.25	332.25	46	313.06073332365	0.30993596979077	0.9224539673622	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.1	38.43	42.265	1.020304	0.1201	1.0501	0.96	2.0101	F	F	14.1	331.1	46	313.08264366935	0.31943947366641	0.87635345487289	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.48	38.63	42.055	0.73288158333333	0.0901	1.0201	0.96	1.9801	F	F	13.48	328.48	46	312.87463600241	0.22930005861828	0.86006951241088	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.5	38.64	42.07	0	0.0901	0.9801	0.71	1.6901	F	F	13.5	315.5	46	312.34356165947	0	0.86061648564272	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.53	37.36	41.445	0.385952	0.2551	1.2351	0.83	2.0651	F	F	13.53	326.53	46	312.62336063044	0.12065761128204	0.86143422281967	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.89	37.92	41.905	0.40995066666667	0.1122	1.1522	0.82	1.9722	F	F	13.89	326.89	46	312.64074959824	0.12816728372497	0.87099299144679	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.68	38.1	41.89	0	0.0745	0.9645	0.82	1.7845	F	F	13.68	328.68	46	312.34356165947	0	0.86547396772962	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	44.07	37.3	40.685	0	0.0568	0.8668	1.06	1.9268	F	F	12.07	325.07	46	312.34356165947	0	0.8178319369764	87	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.15	37.17	42.16	0	0.0483	0.8483	1.08	1.9283	F	F	15.15	327.15	46	312.34356165947	0	0.9008211958719	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.19	37.22	42.205	0	0.0483	0.8383	1.14	1.9783	F	F	15.19	316.19	46	312.34356165947	0	0.90167793838133	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.36	36.9	41.63	0	1.5858	2.1658	1.08	3.2458	T	F	14.36	329.36	46	312.34356165947	0	0.8827721715466	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.06	37.41	41.735	0	1.717	2.407	1.07	3.477	T	F	14.06	332.06	46	312.34356165947	0	0.87534459088573	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.07	37.45	41.76	0	1.717	2.377	1.11	3.487	T	F	14.07	333.07	46	312.34356165947	0	0.87559734300608	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	46.18	37.09	41.635	0	0.9711	1.3011	1.1	2.4011	F	F	14.18	328.18	46	312.34356165947	0	0.87835404920472	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.07	38.04	42.555	0	0.7498	1.0098	1.17	2.1798	F	F	15.07	325.07	46	312.34356165947	0	0.89909141193172	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.1	38.07	42.585	0	0.7498	1.0098	1.06	2.0698	F	F	15.1	323.1	46	312.34356165947	0	0.89974263229838	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	45.53	38.39	41.96	0	0.0998	0.4498	0.92	1.3698	F	F	13.53	335.53	46	312.34356165947	0	0.86143422281967	87	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.12	38.68	42.9	0	0.1183	0.4183	0.89	1.3083	F	F	15.12	335.12	46	312.34356165947	0	0.9001750772489	87	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.13	38.7	42.915	0	0.1183	0.4183	0.84	1.2583	F	F	15.13	333.13	46	312.34356165947	0	0.90039078975566	87	5	4	2	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2019-11-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	44.3	36.55	40.425	0	0.0574	0.9574	0.83	1.7874	F	F	12.3	329.3	46	312.34356165947	0	0.82521654162738	87	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	47	127	43.63	35.37	39.5	0	0.0963	1.1563	0.93	2.0863	F	F	11.63	328.63	46	312.34356165947	0	0.80317221423463	87	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	47	127	43.65	35.39	39.52	0	0.0963	1.1563	0.44	1.5963	F	F	11.65	324.65	46	312.34356165947	0	0.80385364600986	87	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.56	35.96	41.76	0	0.0148	0.6148	0.53	1.1448	F	F	15.56	336.56	46	312.34356165947	0	0.90934792423521	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	47.73	35.7	41.715	0	0.0026	0.6926	0.49	1.1826	F	F	15.73	338.73	46	312.34356165947	0	0.91271974275477	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	42.11	35.71	38.91	0	0.0026	0.6926	0.49	1.1826	F	F	10.11	334.11	46	312.34356165947	0	0.74731327474944	87	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	47	127	37.38	36.25	36.815	0	0.0289	0.9589	0.43	1.3889	F	F	5.38	326.38	46	312.34356165947	0	0.5336503065058	87	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	47	127	35.38	35.18	35.28	0	0.0165	1.2265	0.39	1.6165	F	F	3.38	329.38	46	312.34356165947	0	0.4358636387372	87	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH