Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 17, 2019

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DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2019 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.99°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.55°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.838 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 320 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.35 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.30 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 3 in SWE DAY: 45 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 313.50 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.97 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-18 04:00:12	OBSERVATION	2020	48	128	43.98998	33.11006	38.55002	3.09546625	1.09	2.35	0.95	3.3	T	F	11.98998	319.98998	45	313.50127700744	0.97043262230842	0.83795771042144	87	4	4	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-18 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	49	129	34.92	34.92	34.92	3.9840373333333	0.0029	1.2629	0.94	2.2029	F	F	2.92	295.92	45	314.14243274319	1.251555180033	0.4525882542034	87	2	4	2	4	4	2	64	DRY	H
2019-11-17 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.23	41.54	45.885	4.0412013333333	0.1794	1.4394	0.95	2.3894	F	F	18.23	326.23	45	314.18363037488	1.2696793059825	0.95977182014415	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.56	41.03	45.795	3.7689613333333	0.7265	1.9865	0.95	2.9365	T	F	18.56	326.56	45	313.98737560969	1.1834062778277	0.96314580817831	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	46.7	39.59	43.145	3.71034825	1.0246	2.2846	0.95	3.2346	T	F	14.7	322.7	45	313.9451043376	1.1648456684751	0.90602923917715	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-17 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.73	39.08	43.405	2.392308	1.2987	2.1587	0.95	3.1087	T	F	15.73	323.73	45	312.99288077592	0.74877537262329	0.92541329651367	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.56	41.34	43.45	3.4304106666667	0.9245	1.9045	0.95	2.8545	T	F	13.56	328.56	45	313.74312883557	1.0762677757509	0.88051752929723	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	49.67	42.12	45.895	3.30014	0.6504	1.6304	0.95	2.5804	F	F	17.67	332.67	45	313.64908932336	1.0350859056396	0.95347748397842	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.24	42.84	44.04	2.593792	0.6241	1.6041	0.95	2.5541	F	F	13.24	328.24	45	313.13865020664	0.81221652579679	0.87255273217687	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.81	41.99	43.9	2.5732667902377	0.6694	1.6994	0.95	2.6494	F	F	13.81	326.81	45	313.1238040621	0.80575108622591	0.88649156880176	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 04:00:14	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.3	41.8	46.05	2.0566078333333	0.5614	1.5614	0.95	2.5114	F	F	18.3	333.3	45	312.74984302091	0.64320377703057	0.96050767104314	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.39	42.35	46.37	2.0980721274137	0.5833	0.7033	0.95	1.6533	F	F	18.39	324.39	45	312.77987325641	0.65623473409527	0.96143768613361	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-15 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.28	42.52	43.9	2.500476	0.5955	0.8155	0.95	1.7655	F	F	13.28	324.28	45	313.07114732021	0.78282689016664	0.87356798836841	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-15 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.96	42.69	44.325	2.416344	0.6479	0.8479	0.95	1.7979	F	F	13.96	324.96	45	313.01027423487	0.75634049808577	0.8899724157847	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-15 12:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.51	41.72	43.615	1.9383220810844	0.752	0.962	0.95	1.912	F	F	13.51	327.51	45	312.66415797961	0.60604384137554	0.87929665891704	87	5	4	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	48	128	49.19	41.97	45.58	1.594048	0.6636	1.1036	0.95	2.0536	F	F	17.19	331.19	45	312.41462265085	0.49800390440734	0.94747612934535	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.97	41.01	43.49	1.6392146010772	0.5875	1.2675	0.95	2.2175	F	F	13.97	327.97	45	312.44737255877	0.51216829516655	0.89020172755793	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.1	40.62	45.36	1.2458804869863	0.6355	1.4655	0.95	2.4155	F	F	18.1	315.1	45	312.16204327966	0.38891659849989	0.95837580489608	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	48	128	49.8	41.71	45.755	2.0479826666667	0.7501	1.5801	0.97	2.5501	F	F	17.8	331.8	45	312.7435959047	0.64049346352383	0.95500473579219	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	48.98	41.17	45.075	1.8749626666667	0.7617	1.5917	0.97	2.5617	F	F	16.98	331.98	45	312.61825045085	0.586147548514	0.94466498409067	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	51.27	42.75	47.01	0.81667066666667	0.7496	1.5896	0.97	2.5596	F	F	19.27	332.27	45	311.85036391107	0.25467904459549	0.96962539740896	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	48	128	46.29	41.72	44.005	0.64944533333333	0.4332	1.2332	0.98	2.2132	F	F	14.29	330.29	45	311.72883784946	0.20245083900676	0.89736001334793	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.28	41.26	45.77	0.44348508333333	0.5514	1.4214	0.98	2.4014	F	F	18.28	327.28	45	311.57909137815	0.13818067930476	0.96029855040831	87	5	4	2	4	4	2	88	DRY	VH
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.31	41.65	45.98	0	0.6054	1.5254	0.98	2.5054	F	F	18.31	322.31	45	311.2563828623	0	0.96061189590146	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	49.55	41.88	45.715	0.317072	1.1434	2.0834	0.99	3.0734	T	F	17.55	331.55	45	311.48714205642	0.098763851106112	0.9520311681777	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 16:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	48.93	42.27	45.6	0.271808	0.9317	1.9717	0.99	2.9617	T	F	16.93	330.93	45	311.45421111674	0.084655746215218	0.9439785132529	87	5	4	2	5	4	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	48.97	42.29	45.63	0	0.9317	1.9517	0.98	2.9317	T	F	16.97	331.97	45	311.2563828623	0	0.94452822219531	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	49.37	42.55	45.96	0	0.2997	1.3297	0.98	2.3097	F	F	17.37	331.37	45	311.2563828623	0	0.94979467992086	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.47	42.1	44.785	0	0.8188	1.8088	0.99	2.7988	F	F	15.47	326.47	45	311.2563828623	0	0.92083403977582	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.5	42.14	44.82	0	0.8188	1.7888	0.72	2.5088	F	F	15.5	314.5	45	311.2563828623	0	0.92137299593944	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	48	128	45.76	41.3	43.53	0	1.8517	3.0817	0.84	3.9217	T	F	13.76	323.76	45	311.2563828623	0	0.88531407522254	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.13	42.03	44.58	0	1.728	2.848	0.85	3.698	T	F	15.13	325.13	45	311.2563828623	0	0.91452968731492	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.37	42.33	44.85	0	1.0855	2.0155	0.85	2.8655	T	F	15.37	327.37	45	311.2563828623	0	0.91901737945365	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.09	43.23	45.16	0	0.6641	1.4841	1.11	2.5941	F	F	15.09	323.09	45	311.2563828623	0	0.91376403171161	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.24	42.55	46.395	0	0.5199	1.2799	1.17	2.4499	F	F	18.24	328.24	45	311.2563828623	0	0.9598776164734	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.26	42.59	46.425	0	0.5199	1.2099	1.29	2.4999	F	F	18.26	317.26	45	311.2563828623	0	0.96008853307487	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	48.45	39.64	44.045	0	1.1511	3.2811	1.12	4.4011	T	F	16.45	328.45	45	311.2563828623	0	0.93704308992757	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.39	37.83	42.61	0	1.6961	4.0361	1.14	5.1761	T	T	15.39	330.39	45	311.2563828623	0	0.9193831978811	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2019-11-11 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.4	37.84	42.62	0	1.6961	4.0361	1.15	5.1861	T	T	15.4	331.4	45	311.2563828623	0	0.91956563999655	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2019-11-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	46.07	37.57	41.82	0	2.0079	3.3079	1.1	4.4079	T	F	14.07	325.07	45	311.2563828623	0	0.89247605588364	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2019-11-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.93	40.44	44.185	0	3.2128	4.2228	1.17	5.3928	T	T	15.93	323.93	45	311.2563828623	0	0.92879650947627	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2019-11-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	47.95	40.47	44.21	0	3.2128	4.2228	1.06	5.2828	T	T	15.95	321.95	45	311.2563828623	0	0.92912826563542	87	5	4	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2019-11-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.14	43.07	46.605	0	0.9783	1.4283	0.92	2.3483	F	F	18.14	337.14	45	311.2563828623	0	0.95880945450432	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	48	128	50.37	44.03	47.2	0	0.8058	1.2058	0.91	2.1158	F	F	18.37	336.37	45	311.2563828623	0	0.96123256885341	87	5	4	2	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	48.58	44.05	46.315	0	0.3822	0.7822	0.86	1.6422	F	F	16.58	332.58	45	311.2563828623	0	0.93898411797195	87	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	48	128	41.03	39.41	40.22	0	0.3452	1.3052	0.83	2.1352	F	F	9.03	321.03	45	311.2563828623	0	0.73412121337065	87	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	48	128	40.05	39.41	39.73	0	0.0466	1.1766	0.96	2.1366	F	F	8.05	320.05	45	311.2563828623	0	0.69354097308283	87	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH