Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 15, 2019

[ Thursday, November 14, 2019 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 16, 2019 ]

DAY 46 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/16/2019 04:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.717
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 84 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 317

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.86 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 316.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-16 04:00:14OBSERVATION20204612642.6799432.0399637.359954.70799583333330.860000000000010.860000000000010.951.81FF10.67994316.6799447316.80817857435 1.4915315846940.7167933873747184 44234260DRYH
2019-11-16 00:00:16FORECAST20204712732.5432.5432.545.02381618738380.00770.00770.950.9577FF0.54308.5447317.033575434571.59271840821230.297131936863248424214216DRYL
2019-11-15 12:00:13FORECAST20204612641.1933.1137.154.62956208108440.16360.16360.951.1136FF9.19315.1947316.752173396661.46642385105820.659398142342258434224236DRYL
2019-11-15 08:00:14FORECAST20204612640.6233.9137.2654.4199320.40730.40730.951.3573FF8.62314.6247316.602433449011.39936122687920.636323386378468434224236DRYL
2019-11-15 04:00:13FORECAST20204612640.5431.8336.1854.36254393441050.65330.65330.951.6033FF8.54314.5447316.561426927491.38101313291080.633042573983058434234254DRYMH
2019-11-15 00:00:13FORECAST20204612643.3735.2539.314.06536848698630.76840.76840.951.7184FF11.37297.3747316.348985191861.28607519528910.741707292239548444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 20:00:13FORECAST20204612643.0937.1840.1355.00282533333330.75450.77450.951.7245FF11.09314.0947317.0186001451.58598868394330.731736460067138444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 16:00:11FORECAST20204612643.6537.4840.5654.86686933333330.74150.76150.951.7115FF11.65314.6547316.921587115831.54241595340540.751482809219398444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 12:00:11FORECAST20204612643.3137.6940.53.94529866666670.73370.75370.951.7037FF11.31314.3147316.263105416241.24775240811460.739586945618648444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 08:00:15FORECAST20204612644.2837.7341.0053.6283960.74810.77810.951.7281FF12.28316.2847316.036315386491.14670490260310.772738040877278444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 04:00:11FORECAST20204612643.6836.9940.3353.451463750.79280.82280.951.7728FF11.68309.6847315.909615147771.0903505849590.752518385521418444234260DRYH
2019-11-14 00:00:15FORECAST20204612643.5137.0840.2952.30854133333330.81610.84610.951.7961FF11.51304.5147315.089801198550.727397829778640.746619793856738444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 20:00:11FORECAST20204612644.0236.0740.0453.38020933333330.7970.8370.951.787FF12.02314.0247315.858574155691.06766810037440.764092315367648444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 16:00:12FORECAST20204612645.1536.2140.683.3310640.88660.92660.951.8766FF13.15315.1547315.823364967651.05202784140260.800335153659548444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 12:00:11FORECAST20204612644.3637.0840.722.35433466666670.91940.94940.951.8994FF12.36314.3647315.122694372660.741904283614950.775361956467188444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 08:00:13FORECAST20204612644.4436.5740.5052.26304133333330.90680.93680.951.8868FF12.44315.4447315.057114935140.712987273458970.777968631655558444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 04:00:13FORECAST20204612642.2137.1339.672.013120250.90370.94370.951.8937FF10.21313.2147314.877509397780.633886290438240.699192735382128444234260DRYH
2019-11-13 00:00:12FORECAST20204612642.2537.3139.780.892073333333330.87820.89820.71.5982FF10.25300.2547314.070465945730.280173887457760.700709898316478444234260DRYH
2019-11-12 20:00:14FORECAST20204612643.8738.6241.2451.67969333333330.97490.99490.821.8149FF11.87310.8747314.637714886980.528494872110890.759023225463858444244280DRYVH
2019-11-12 16:00:11FORECAST20204612644.1538.1741.161.72014666666671.01361.04360.821.8636FF12.15311.1547314.666819006950.541273079825410.768437631626128444244280DRYVH
2019-11-12 12:00:11FORECAST20204612646.538.9142.7051.04167866666670.86110.89110.821.7111FF14.5312.547314.178299982710.327272832621580.838949367860818444234260DRYH
2019-11-12 08:00:11FORECAST20204612644.4537.4540.950.9732360.75890.80891.061.8689FF12.45311.4547314.128972274020.305721624460070.778293249655348444234260DRYH
2019-11-12 04:00:11FORECAST20204612642.5937.7340.160.696802833333330.71420.80421.081.8842FF10.59309.5947313.929655249490.21874707324520.713463317158598444234260DRYH
2019-11-12 00:00:12FORECAST20204612644.8337.3741.100.64490.79491.141.9349FF12.83298.8347313.4266170167100.790426652602128444235275DRYVH
2019-11-11 20:00:11FORECAST20204612644.4537.0640.75500.54170.58171.081.6617FF12.45313.4547313.4266170167100.778293249655348444235275DRYVH
2019-11-11 16:00:11FORECAST20204612643.5537.8940.7200.62480.69481.071.7648FF11.55315.5547313.4266170167100.748014304130558444235275DRYVH
2019-11-11 12:00:12FORECAST20204612643.5937.9440.76500.62480.66481.111.7748FF11.59316.5947313.4266170167100.74940475980418444235275DRYVH
2019-11-11 08:00:11FORECAST20204612643.5936.7440.16500.32680.32681.11.4268FF11.59311.5947313.4266170167100.74940475980418444225250DRYMH
2019-11-11 04:00:11FORECAST20204612642.1138.5940.3500.26370.26371.171.4337FF10.11308.1147313.4266170167100.695384751350798434225245DRYM
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204612642.1538.6140.3800.26370.26371.061.3237FF10.15306.1547313.4266170167100.696910516343118434225245DRYM
2019-11-10 20:00:11FORECAST20204612644.1537.2640.70500.34510.34510.921.2651FF12.15320.1547313.4266170167100.768437631626128444225250DRYMH
2019-11-10 16:00:11FORECAST20204612642.0938.0740.0800.27980.29980.891.1898FF10.09318.0947313.4266170167100.694620591149728434225245DRYM
2019-11-10 12:00:12FORECAST20204612642.1238.140.1100.27980.29980.841.1398FF10.12316.1247313.4266170167100.69576651252658434225245DRYM
2019-11-10 08:00:12FORECAST20204612641.9337.2839.60500.90460.91460.821.7346FF9.93314.9347313.4266170167100.688477001088338434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204612642.2736.3539.3101.02751.06750.921.9875FF10.27315.2747313.4266170167100.7014671770055284442452100DRYVH
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204612642.2936.3739.3301.02751.06750.431.4975FF10.29311.2947313.4266170167100.7022235837129284442452100DRYVH
2019-11-09 20:00:12FORECAST20204612639.8136.5138.1600.35550.61550.511.1255FF7.81318.8147313.4266170167100.602683386025358434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-09 16:00:12FORECAST20204612640.735.9538.32500.38820.69820.481.1782FF8.7320.747313.4266170167100.639594237305778434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204612640.7335.9738.3500.38820.69820.481.1782FF8.73321.7347313.4266170167100.640818193704868434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204612640.5236.5638.5400.56130.93130.431.3613FF8.52318.5247313.4266170167100.632220840128218434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204612641.0235.5138.26500.87031.21030.391.6003FF9.02324.0247313.4266170167100.652573705750278434245290DRYVH
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204612641.0435.5338.28500.87031.21030.461.6703FF9.04301.0447313.4266170167100.653379203439498434245290DRYVH
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204612641.3537.5839.46500.42370.64370.671.3137FF9.35315.3547313.4266170167100.665773896666678434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-08 16:00:12FORECAST20204612647.639.5443.5700.38870.55870.71.2587FF15.6326.647313.4266170167100.866551371728998454235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204612644.1439.5641.8500.19720.36720.751.1172FF12.14323.1447313.4266170167100.768104965757298444225250DRYMH
2019-11-08 08:00:12FORECAST20204612641.6640.1340.89500.36940.71940.951.6694FF9.66310.6647313.4266170167100.677990524211888434235267.5DRYH
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204612642.2741.8642.06500.22360.57360.891.4636FF10.27317.2747313.4266170167100.701467177005528444235275DRYVH