Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 15, 2019

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DAY 46 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/16/2019 04:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.68°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.04°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.36°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.717 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 84 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 317 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.86 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.81 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 5 in SWE DAY: 47 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 316.81 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 1.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 126 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-16 04:00:14	OBSERVATION	2020	46	126	42.67994	32.03996	37.35995	4.7079958333333	0.86000000000001	0.86000000000001	0.95	1.81	F	F	10.67994	316.67994	47	316.80817857435	1.491531584694	0.71679338737471	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-16 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	47	127	32.54	32.54	32.54	5.0238161873838	0.0077	0.0077	0.95	0.9577	F	F	0.54	308.54	47	317.03357543457	1.5927184082123	0.29713193686324	84	2	4	2	1	4	2	16	DRY	L
2019-11-15 12:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.19	33.11	37.15	4.6295620810844	0.1636	0.1636	0.95	1.1136	F	F	9.19	315.19	47	316.75217339666	1.4664238510582	0.65939814234225	84	3	4	2	2	4	2	36	DRY	L
2019-11-15 08:00:14	FORECAST	2020	46	126	40.62	33.91	37.265	4.419932	0.4073	0.4073	0.95	1.3573	F	F	8.62	314.62	47	316.60243344901	1.3993612268792	0.63632338637846	84	3	4	2	2	4	2	36	DRY	L
2019-11-15 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	40.54	31.83	36.185	4.3625439344105	0.6533	0.6533	0.95	1.6033	F	F	8.54	314.54	47	316.56142692749	1.3810131329108	0.63304257398305	84	3	4	2	3	4	2	54	DRY	MH
2019-11-15 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.37	35.25	39.31	4.0653684869863	0.7684	0.7684	0.95	1.7184	F	F	11.37	297.37	47	316.34898519186	1.2860751952891	0.74170729223954	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 20:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.09	37.18	40.135	5.0028253333333	0.7545	0.7745	0.95	1.7245	F	F	11.09	314.09	47	317.018600145	1.5859886839433	0.73173646006713	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.65	37.48	40.565	4.8668693333333	0.7415	0.7615	0.95	1.7115	F	F	11.65	314.65	47	316.92158711583	1.5424159534054	0.75148280921939	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.31	37.69	40.5	3.9452986666667	0.7337	0.7537	0.95	1.7037	F	F	11.31	314.31	47	316.26310541624	1.2477524081146	0.73958694561864	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 08:00:15	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.28	37.73	41.005	3.628396	0.7481	0.7781	0.95	1.7281	F	F	12.28	316.28	47	316.03631538649	1.1467049026031	0.77273804087727	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.68	36.99	40.335	3.45146375	0.7928	0.8228	0.95	1.7728	F	F	11.68	309.68	47	315.90961514777	1.090350584959	0.75251838552141	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-14 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.51	37.08	40.295	2.3085413333333	0.8161	0.8461	0.95	1.7961	F	F	11.51	304.51	47	315.08980119855	0.72739782977864	0.74661979385673	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.02	36.07	40.045	3.3802093333333	0.797	0.837	0.95	1.787	F	F	12.02	314.02	47	315.85857415569	1.0676681003744	0.76409231536764	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	45.15	36.21	40.68	3.331064	0.8866	0.9266	0.95	1.8766	F	F	13.15	315.15	47	315.82336496765	1.0520278414026	0.80033515365954	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.36	37.08	40.72	2.3543346666667	0.9194	0.9494	0.95	1.8994	F	F	12.36	314.36	47	315.12269437266	0.74190428361495	0.77536195646718	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 08:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.44	36.57	40.505	2.2630413333333	0.9068	0.9368	0.95	1.8868	F	F	12.44	315.44	47	315.05711493514	0.71298727345897	0.77796863165555	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.21	37.13	39.67	2.01312025	0.9037	0.9437	0.95	1.8937	F	F	10.21	313.21	47	314.87750939778	0.63388629043824	0.69919273538212	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.25	37.31	39.78	0.89207333333333	0.8782	0.8982	0.7	1.5982	F	F	10.25	300.25	47	314.07046594573	0.28017388745776	0.70070989831647	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-12 20:00:14	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.87	38.62	41.245	1.6796933333333	0.9749	0.9949	0.82	1.8149	F	F	11.87	310.87	47	314.63771488698	0.52849487211089	0.75902322546385	84	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.15	38.17	41.16	1.7201466666667	1.0136	1.0436	0.82	1.8636	F	F	12.15	311.15	47	314.66681900695	0.54127307982541	0.76843763162612	84	4	4	2	4	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2019-11-12 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	46.5	38.91	42.705	1.0416786666667	0.8611	0.8911	0.82	1.7111	F	F	14.5	312.5	47	314.17829998271	0.32727283262158	0.83894936786081	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.45	37.45	40.95	0.973236	0.7589	0.8089	1.06	1.8689	F	F	12.45	311.45	47	314.12897227402	0.30572162446007	0.77829324965534	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.59	37.73	40.16	0.69680283333333	0.7142	0.8042	1.08	1.8842	F	F	10.59	309.59	47	313.92965524949	0.2187470732452	0.71346331715859	84	4	4	2	3	4	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.83	37.37	41.1	0	0.6449	0.7949	1.14	1.9349	F	F	12.83	298.83	47	313.42661701671	0	0.79042665260212	84	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.45	37.06	40.755	0	0.5417	0.5817	1.08	1.6617	F	F	12.45	313.45	47	313.42661701671	0	0.77829324965534	84	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.55	37.89	40.72	0	0.6248	0.6948	1.07	1.7648	F	F	11.55	315.55	47	313.42661701671	0	0.74801430413055	84	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.59	37.94	40.765	0	0.6248	0.6648	1.11	1.7748	F	F	11.59	316.59	47	313.42661701671	0	0.7494047598041	84	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2019-11-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	43.59	36.74	40.165	0	0.3268	0.3268	1.1	1.4268	F	F	11.59	311.59	47	313.42661701671	0	0.7494047598041	84	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-11-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.11	38.59	40.35	0	0.2637	0.2637	1.17	1.4337	F	F	10.11	308.11	47	313.42661701671	0	0.69538475135079	84	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-11-11 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.15	38.61	40.38	0	0.2637	0.2637	1.06	1.3237	F	F	10.15	306.15	47	313.42661701671	0	0.69691051634311	84	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-11-10 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.15	37.26	40.705	0	0.3451	0.3451	0.92	1.2651	F	F	12.15	320.15	47	313.42661701671	0	0.76843763162612	84	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-11-10 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.09	38.07	40.08	0	0.2798	0.2998	0.89	1.1898	F	F	10.09	318.09	47	313.42661701671	0	0.69462059114972	84	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-11-10 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.12	38.1	40.11	0	0.2798	0.2998	0.84	1.1398	F	F	10.12	316.12	47	313.42661701671	0	0.6957665125265	84	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2019-11-10 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.93	37.28	39.605	0	0.9046	0.9146	0.82	1.7346	F	F	9.93	314.93	47	313.42661701671	0	0.68847700108833	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-10 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.27	36.35	39.31	0	1.0275	1.0675	0.92	1.9875	F	F	10.27	315.27	47	313.42661701671	0	0.70146717700552	84	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.29	36.37	39.33	0	1.0275	1.0675	0.43	1.4975	F	F	10.29	311.29	47	313.42661701671	0	0.70222358371292	84	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	39.81	36.51	38.16	0	0.3555	0.6155	0.51	1.1255	F	F	7.81	318.81	47	313.42661701671	0	0.60268338602535	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-09 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	40.7	35.95	38.325	0	0.3882	0.6982	0.48	1.1782	F	F	8.7	320.7	47	313.42661701671	0	0.63959423730577	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-09 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	40.73	35.97	38.35	0	0.3882	0.6982	0.48	1.1782	F	F	8.73	321.73	47	313.42661701671	0	0.64081819370486	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	46	126	40.52	36.56	38.54	0	0.5613	0.9313	0.43	1.3613	F	F	8.52	318.52	47	313.42661701671	0	0.63222084012821	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.02	35.51	38.265	0	0.8703	1.2103	0.39	1.6003	F	F	9.02	324.02	47	313.42661701671	0	0.65257370575027	84	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.04	35.53	38.285	0	0.8703	1.2103	0.46	1.6703	F	F	9.04	301.04	47	313.42661701671	0	0.65337920343949	84	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2019-11-08 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.35	37.58	39.465	0	0.4237	0.6437	0.67	1.3137	F	F	9.35	315.35	47	313.42661701671	0	0.66577389666667	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-08 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	47.6	39.54	43.57	0	0.3887	0.5587	0.7	1.2587	F	F	15.6	326.6	47	313.42661701671	0	0.86655137172899	84	5	4	2	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-08 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	44.14	39.56	41.85	0	0.1972	0.3672	0.75	1.1172	F	F	12.14	323.14	47	313.42661701671	0	0.76810496575729	84	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2019-11-08 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	41.66	40.13	40.895	0	0.3694	0.7194	0.95	1.6694	F	F	9.66	310.66	47	313.42661701671	0	0.67799052421188	84	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2019-11-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	46	126	42.27	41.86	42.065	0	0.2236	0.5736	0.89	1.4636	F	F	10.27	317.27	47	313.42661701671	0	0.70146717700552	84	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH