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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 14, 2019

[ Wednesday, November 13, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, November 15, 2019 ]

DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2019 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.955
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 293

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 318.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 44.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-15 04:00:13OBSERVATION20204512554.4899240.7899447.639934.968822083333300.250.70.95FF22.48992293.4899248318.05975579718 1.58038233842470.954884458578287 54224244DRYM
2019-11-15 00:00:13FORECAST20204612633.8733.8733.875.00005915365290.00310.25310.70.9531FF1.87285.8748318.081958045431.59042860593690.356242182322858724224232DRYL
2019-11-14 12:00:11FORECAST20204512550.8541.1746.015.10215466666670.02270.27270.70.9727FF18.85289.8548318.154511780631.62327352700260.908128911134018754224244DRYM
2019-11-14 08:00:15FORECAST20204512551.736.9444.324.821660.02560.27560.70.9756FF19.7290.748317.95513428681.53307155278530.92138707749218754224244DRYM
2019-11-14 04:00:11FORECAST20204512545.735.6140.6554.44273441666670.03410.28410.70.9841FF13.7284.748317.685565771961.41139259673330.792184043231358744224240DRYM
2019-11-14 00:00:15FORECAST20204512551.3938.7245.0553.30691866666670.0290.2790.70.979FF19.39280.3948316.875987730331.04788311884390.916730031584128754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 20:00:11FORECAST20204512552.0940.6746.384.37333866666670.03410.29410.70.9941FF20.09289.0948317.636169363961.38913054141130.926963141092998754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 16:00:12FORECAST20204512551.9741.5246.7454.34944933333330.02960.28960.70.9896FF19.97288.9748317.619162745171.38146845565590.925280532060048754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 12:00:11FORECAST20204512552.0341.3346.683.4217560.02350.28350.70.9835FF20.03289.0348316.957946778921.08455275613850.926125484941558754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 08:00:13FORECAST20204512552.0741.6246.8453.31176666666670.02470.28470.70.9847FF20.07290.0748316.879448216231.04943079395420.92668473109848754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 04:00:13FORECAST20204512551.9241.846.862.97377758333330.02920.28920.70.9892FF19.92289.9248316.638090657370.941611256026360.924570807206428754224244DRYM
2019-11-13 00:00:12FORECAST20204512552.2642.3647.311.8728480.010.020.70.72FF20.26277.2648315.850480074880.591539939907270.929297163565758754214222DRYL
2019-11-12 20:00:14FORECAST20204512553.0341.7247.3752.85803333333330.00670.13670.70.8367FF21.03286.0348316.555390201570.904725857042430.939159694264288754224244DRYM
2019-11-12 16:00:10FORECAST20204512552.8541.5647.2052.92079066666670.02690.14690.70.8469FF20.85285.8548316.600233978490.924723008468860.936956070806068754224244DRYM
2019-11-12 12:00:11FORECAST20204512552.4841.4246.952.31256933333330.03020.15020.70.8502FF20.48285.4848316.165323124330.731154230520760.932232341320718754224244DRYM
2019-11-12 08:00:11FORECAST20204512552.0142.2447.1252.01698666666670.04870.40870.71.1087FF20.01286.0148315.953722948490.637274446470810.925844646346068754224244DRYM
2019-11-12 04:00:11FORECAST20204512552.3142.4147.361.69386816666670.09240.47240.71.1724FF20.31286.3148315.722228737780.534791832767980.929972653381488754224244DRYM
2019-11-12 00:00:12FORECAST20204512552.842.5447.6700.15260.59260.71.2926FF20.8272.848314.5055645733600.93633308709828754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-11 20:00:11FORECAST20204512553.4541.6147.530.592718666666670.04140.41140.711.1214FF21.45288.4548314.931895427770.186666013148750.94406792376828754224244DRYM
2019-11-11 16:00:11FORECAST20204512553.4941.7847.6350.4813080.07490.43490.711.1449FF21.49291.4948314.851808907190.15154069444150.944518651555648754224244DRYM
2019-11-11 12:00:12FORECAST20204512553.2442.3547.79500.03820.43820.711.1482FF21.24292.2448314.5055645733600.941654200424638754225255DRYH
2019-11-11 08:00:11FORECAST20204512547.4241.5144.46500.00060.38060.721.1006FF15.42287.4248314.5055645733600.837942641321928744225250DRYMH
2019-11-11 04:00:11FORECAST20204512553.1341.0447.08500.00090.45090.721.1709FF21.13285.1348314.5055645733600.940357728252858754225255DRYH
2019-11-11 00:00:13FORECAST20204512553.1741.0947.1300.00090.47090.591.0609FF21.17283.1748314.5055645733600.94083175142948754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 20:00:11FORECAST20204512552.7541.547.12500.00280.33280.590.9228FF20.75294.7548314.5055645733600.935705340602948754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 16:00:11FORECAST20204512552.2640.2446.2500.01780.32780.580.9078FF20.26295.2648314.5055645733600.929297163565758754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 12:00:12FORECAST20204512552.3140.2646.28500.01780.27780.580.8578FF20.31293.3148314.5055645733600.929972653381488754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 08:00:11FORECAST20204512552.5342.3547.4400.00380.26380.570.8338FF20.53291.5348314.5055645733600.932886157901088754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 04:00:13FORECAST20204512551.941.8646.8800.02680.37680.580.9568FF19.9291.948314.5055645733600.924285487899768754225255DRYH
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204512551.9341.8946.9100.02680.40680.060.4668FF19.93287.9348314.5055645733600.924713160267568754225255DRYH
2019-11-09 20:00:11FORECAST20204512551.5740.5446.0550.200433333333330.2380.6280.140.768FF19.57297.5748314.649804150010.0630663090784680.919458656699568754234266DRYH
2019-11-09 16:00:11FORECAST20204512550.7340.8845.80500.29560.64560.140.7856FF18.73298.7348314.5055645733600.906131498062098754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-09 12:00:12FORECAST20204512550.7640.9145.83500.29560.65560.130.7856FF18.76299.7648314.5055645733600.906633820976198754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204512548.4640.2944.37500.37350.51350.290.8035FF16.46297.4648314.5055645733600.862161291043168754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204512547.7240.3244.0200.33940.45940.270.7294FF15.72301.7248314.5055645733600.845196488194678744225250DRYMH
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204512547.7540.3444.04500.33940.45940.340.7994FF15.75278.7548314.5055645733600.845909920305568744225250DRYMH
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204512551.9742.034700.21660.50660.380.8866FF19.97292.9748314.5055645733600.925280532060048754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204512551.9842.0547.01500.17160.51160.360.8716FF19.98297.9848314.5055645733600.925421865646198754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST2020451255242.0947.04500.17160.51160.410.9216FF2029848314.5055645733600.925703922638248754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204512548.7539.0443.89500.32370.84370.461.3037FF16.75287.7548314.5055645733600.868451058313218754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST20204512550.2141.1545.6800.32290.70290.541.2429FF18.21294.2148314.5055645733600.897106375515938754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204512550.2341.1645.69500.32290.70290.621.3229FF18.23285.2348314.5055645733600.897464722321518754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-07 20:00:12FORECAST20204512553.0139.5546.2800.00260.39260.721.1126FF21.01297.0148314.5055645733600.938917852293078754225255DRYH
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204512551.3239.4945.40500.00230.50230.851.3523FF19.32297.3248314.5055645733600.915650395520648754235282.5DRYVH
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204512546.6839.5143.09500.00120.50120.841.3412FF14.68292.6848314.5055645733600.819121847868138744235275DRYVH
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204512540.5339.1139.8200.0010.4210.591.011FF8.53276.5348314.5055645733600.616838645960568734225245DRYM
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204512541.8241.0141.41500.00020.29020.210.5002FF9.82287.8248314.5055645733600.664994906446868734225245DRYM