Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 9, 2019

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DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.63°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.51°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.700 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 227 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.55 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.16 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.71 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 6 in SWE DAY: 53 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.37 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 2.10 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 4 D5: 2 HSdry: 66.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-10 04:00:13	OBSERVATION	2020	40	120	43.62998	35.38994	39.50996	6.4632416666667	0.54999999999995	0.54999999999995	0.16	0.70999999999995	F	F	11.62998	226.62998	53	324.36678515038	2.0964609210667	0.70030553445662	86	4	5	2	3	4	2	66	DRY	H
2019-11-10 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	41	121	37.91	37.91	37.91	6.967692	0.0093	0.0093	0.15	0.1593	F	F	5.91	205.91	53	324.71703987148	2.2625283209762	0.46062109598777	86	2	5	2	1	4	2	18	DRY	L
2019-11-09 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	43.75	38.49	41.12	7.2627653333333	0.1018	0.1018	0.16	0.2618	F	F	11.75	226.75	53	324.92171004006	2.3598301317264	0.70484142886656	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-09 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	44.53	38.38	41.455	7.05126	0.2637	0.2637	0.16	0.4237	F	F	12.53	227.53	53	324.7750202759	2.2900731094706	0.73352057161785	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-09 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	44.3	33.73	39.015	6.7614695	0.2431	0.2431	0.16	0.4031	F	F	12.3	227.3	53	324.57390774667	2.194596577725	0.725212100147	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-09 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	44.44	32.12	38.28	5.6937946666667	0.2971	0.2971	0.16	0.4571	F	F	12.44	202.44	53	323.83167035639	1.843831037573	0.73028459864915	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	44.25	39.04	41.645	6.7027053333333	0.2957	0.2957	0.16	0.4557	F	F	12.25	225.25	53	324.53310778053	2.1752497923638	0.72338917763688	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	47.28	39.73	43.505	6.5394706666667	0.2767	0.2767	0.16	0.4367	F	F	15.28	228.28	53	324.41974197855	2.1215333863563	0.82216810715921	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	47.49	39.39	43.44	5.4244346666667	0.322	0.322	0.16	0.482	F	F	15.49	228.49	53	323.64409566182	1.7555862521699	0.82807540050016	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	43.96	41.07	42.515	5.182808	0.3126	0.3226	0.16	0.4826	F	F	11.96	226.96	53	323.47572444818	1.6765125724758	0.71270100461363	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	44	42.02	43.01	4.9080074166667	0.3192	0.3192	0.16	0.4792	F	F	12	222	53	323.28411122802	1.5866808155976	0.71418677613062	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-08 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	45.06	39.92	42.49	3.3319213333333	0.3638	0.3638	0.16	0.5238	F	F	13.06	212.06	53	322.18254934799	1.0734869094003	0.75217062496511	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-07 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	49.46	41.11	45.285	4.25096	0.3417	0.3417	0.16	0.5017	F	F	17.46	226.46	53	322.82542200401	1.3723179559222	0.87732983456245	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-07 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	49.56	41.11	45.335	4.187656	0.1905	0.1905	0.16	0.3505	F	F	17.56	226.56	53	322.78118861236	1.3516965811797	0.87953538293724	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-07 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	50.49	41.07	45.78	2.8088533333333	0.1379	0.1379	0.16	0.2979	F	F	18.49	227.49	53	321.81598969995	0.90393391538868	0.89872069484921	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	45.08	41.7	43.39	2.7589426666667	0.1257	0.1257	0.16	0.2857	F	F	13.08	222.08	53	321.78098745732	0.88777529561814	0.75286051877071	86	4	5	2	2	4	2	44	DRY	M
2019-11-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	48.52	41.7	45.11	2.9293155	0.1107	0.1107	0.16	0.2707	F	F	16.52	222.52	53	321.90045128006	0.94294798139166	0.85521427708612	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-07 00:00:14	FORECAST	2020	40	120	48.5	41.19	44.845	2.1060586666667	0.1275	0.1275	0.16	0.2875	F	F	16.5	212.5	53	321.32271241691	0.67672448328247	0.85471634313766	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	50.53	41.99	46.26	2.737496	0.1489	0.1489	0.16	0.3089	F	F	18.53	242.53	53	321.76594559328	0.88083298899781	0.89949297271543	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	50.52	41.98	46.25	2.8210266666667	0.1508	0.1508	0.16	0.3108	F	F	18.52	241.52	53	321.8245261592	0.90787557028247	0.89930030591253	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.97	42.23	49.6	1.4144533333333	0.1838	0.1838	0.16	0.3438	F	F	24.97	246.97	53	320.83642830876	0.45380815547609	0.97636138046154	86	5	5	2	2	4	2	48	DRY	M
2019-11-06 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.31	40.88	48.595	1.2713906666667	0.0472	0.0472	0.17	0.2172	F	F	24.31	247.31	53	320.73573088255	0.40778041471059	0.97202481944595	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 04:00:16	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.32	42.03	49.175	0.59519358333333	0.03	0.03	0.17	0.2	F	F	24.32	249.32	53	320.25928095586	0.19061626902788	0.97209514820139	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.4	41.37	48.885	0.065679999999999	0.0805	0.0805	0.17	0.2505	F	F	24.4	220.4	53	319.88561281567	0.021010087049733	0.97265250679453	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.43	41.08	48.755	0.99510533333333	0.0807	0.0807	0.17	0.2507	F	F	24.43	248.43	53	320.54115850542	0.31897221638159	0.97285911478998	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.76	41.65	49.205	1.13538	0.0812	0.0812	0.17	0.2512	F	F	24.76	247.76	53	320.63996320679	0.36404820142572	0.97504726608313	86	5	5	2	1	4	2	24	DRY	L
2019-11-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.79	41.65	49.22	0	0.0812	0.0812	0.17	0.2512	F	F	24.79	249.79	53	319.83922858493	0	0.97523865721621	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-05 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	54.45	43.17	48.81	0	0.0116	0.0116	0.17	0.1816	F	F	22.45	247.45	53	319.83922858493	0	0.95614209447792	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	54.46	43.16	48.81	0	0.0116	0.0116	0.17	0.1816	F	F	22.46	241.46	53	319.83922858493	0	0.95624369752404	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-05 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.14	44.68	50.41	0	0.0163	0.0163	0.17	0.1863	F	F	24.14	227.14	53	319.83922858493	0	0.97080653248269	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	56.96	46.38	51.67	0	0.0164	0.0164	0.17	0.1864	F	F	24.96	250.96	53	319.83922858493	0	0.97630014714598	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	54.32	44.95	49.635	0	0.0341	0.0341	0.17	0.2041	F	F	22.32	247.32	53	319.83922858493	0	0.95480391641775	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	54.34	44.98	49.66	0	0.0341	0.0341	0.17	0.2041	F	F	22.34	249.34	53	319.83922858493	0	0.95501189595257	86	5	5	2	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2019-11-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	53.87	43.85	48.86	0	0.0936	0.0936	0.17	0.2636	F	F	21.87	245.87	53	319.83922858493	0	0.94991722022003	86	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.3	43.22	47.76	0	0.1256	0.1256	0.18	0.3056	F	F	20.3	244.3	53	319.83922858493	0	0.92951880799048	86	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.29	43.23	47.76	0	0.1256	0.1256	0.17	0.2956	F	F	20.29	234.29	53	319.83922858493	0	0.9293710241374	86	5	5	2	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2019-11-03 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	54.15	44.68	49.415	0	0.6724	1.2024	0.18	1.3824	F	F	22.15	244.15	53	319.83922858493	0	0.95300479929612	86	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	51.68	44.18	47.93	0	0.7285	1.2585	0.18	1.4385	F	F	19.68	242.68	53	319.83922858493	0	0.91990010027996	86	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	51.71	44.2	47.955	0	0.7285	1.2585	0.17	1.4285	F	F	19.71	242.71	53	319.83922858493	0	0.92038720168798	86	5	5	2	4	5	2	120	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.71	43.86	48.285	0	2.242	2.952	0.17	3.122	T	F	20.71	233.71	53	319.83922858493	0	0.93537623023025	86	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.95	45.95	49.45	0	2.4249	3.1749	0.17	3.3449	T	F	20.95	231.95	53	319.83922858493	0	0.93862580881922	86	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.53	44.39	48.46	0	2.5776	3.4276	0.17	3.5976	T	F	20.53	210.53	53	319.83922858493	0	0.93285283303819	86	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	40	120	52.56	44.41	48.485	0	2.0507	2.9007	0.17	3.0707	T	F	20.56	233.56	53	319.83922858493	0	0.9332785928022	86	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 16:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	50.76	45.04	47.9	0	1.7743	2.1243	0.16	2.2843	F	F	18.76	230.76	53	319.83922858493	0	0.90385058045317	86	5	5	2	5	5	2	150	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	48.2	45.44	46.82	0	2.1568	3.8168	0.16	3.9768	T	F	16.2	225.2	53	319.83922858493	0	0.84710949060283	86	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	48.22	45.8	47.01	0	1.4477	3.1077	0.16	3.2677	T	F	16.22	226.22	53	319.83922858493	0	0.84762466187578	86	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH
2019-11-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	40	120	46.33	45.6	45.965	0	0.4923	2.2423	0.17	2.4123	F	F	14.33	222.33	53	319.83922858493	0	0.79387796605471	86	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	DRY	VH