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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 9, 2019

[ Friday, November 8, 2019 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 10, 2019 ]

DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2019 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.700
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 227

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.55 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 66.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-10 04:00:13OBSERVATION20204012043.6299835.3899439.509966.46324166666670.549999999999950.549999999999950.160.70999999999995FF11.62998226.6299853324.36678515038 2.09646092106670.7003055344566286 45234266DRYH
2019-11-10 00:00:13FORECAST20204112137.9137.9137.916.9676920.00930.00930.150.1593FF5.91205.9153324.717039871482.26252832097620.460621095987778625214218DRYL
2019-11-09 12:00:11FORECAST20204012043.7538.4941.127.26276533333330.10180.10180.160.2618FF11.75226.7553324.921710040062.35983013172640.704841428866568645224244DRYM
2019-11-09 08:00:11FORECAST20204012044.5338.3841.4557.051260.26370.26370.160.4237FF12.53227.5353324.77502027592.29007310947060.733520571617858645224244DRYM
2019-11-09 04:00:12FORECAST20204012044.333.7339.0156.76146950.24310.24310.160.4031FF12.3227.353324.573907746672.1945965777250.7252121001478645224244DRYM
2019-11-09 00:00:13FORECAST20204012044.4432.1238.285.69379466666670.29710.29710.160.4571FF12.44202.4453323.831670356391.8438310375730.730284598649158645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 20:00:12FORECAST20204012044.2539.0441.6456.70270533333330.29570.29570.160.4557FF12.25225.2553324.533107780532.17524979236380.723389177636888645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 16:00:11FORECAST20204012047.2839.7343.5056.53947066666670.27670.27670.160.4367FF15.28228.2853324.419741978552.12153338635630.822168107159218645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 12:00:12FORECAST20204012047.4939.3943.445.42443466666670.3220.3220.160.482FF15.49228.4953323.644095661821.75558625216990.828075400500168645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 08:00:11FORECAST20204012043.9641.0742.5155.1828080.31260.32260.160.4826FF11.96226.9653323.475724448181.67651257247580.712701004613638645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 04:00:12FORECAST2020401204442.0243.014.90800741666670.31920.31920.160.4792FF1222253323.284111228021.58668081559760.714186776130628645224244DRYM
2019-11-08 00:00:13FORECAST20204012045.0639.9242.493.33192133333330.36380.36380.160.5238FF13.06212.0653322.182549347991.07348690940030.752170624965118645224244DRYM
2019-11-07 20:00:11FORECAST20204012049.4641.1145.2854.250960.34170.34170.160.5017FF17.46226.4653322.825422004011.37231795592220.877329834562458655224248DRYM
2019-11-07 16:00:11FORECAST20204012049.5641.1145.3354.1876560.19050.19050.160.3505FF17.56226.5653322.781188612361.35169658117970.879535382937248655224248DRYM
2019-11-07 12:00:12FORECAST20204012050.4941.0745.782.80885333333330.13790.13790.160.2979FF18.49227.4953321.815989699950.903933915388680.898720694849218655224248DRYM
2019-11-07 08:00:11FORECAST20204012045.0841.743.392.75894266666670.12570.12570.160.2857FF13.08222.0853321.780987457320.887775295618140.752860518770718645224244DRYM
2019-11-07 04:00:12FORECAST20204012048.5241.745.112.92931550.11070.11070.160.2707FF16.52222.5253321.900451280060.942947981391660.855214277086128655224248DRYM
2019-11-07 00:00:14FORECAST20204012048.541.1944.8452.10605866666670.12750.12750.160.2875FF16.5212.553321.322712416910.676724483282470.854716343137668655224248DRYM
2019-11-06 20:00:11FORECAST20204012050.5341.9946.262.7374960.14890.14890.160.3089FF18.53242.5353321.765945593280.880832988997810.899492972715438655224248DRYM
2019-11-06 16:00:11FORECAST20204012050.5241.9846.252.82102666666670.15080.15080.160.3108FF18.52241.5253321.82452615920.907875570282470.899300305912538655224248DRYM
2019-11-06 12:00:12FORECAST20204012056.9742.2349.61.41445333333330.18380.18380.160.3438FF24.97246.9753320.836428308760.453808155476090.976361380461548655224248DRYM
2019-11-06 08:00:12FORECAST20204012056.3140.8848.5951.27139066666670.04720.04720.170.2172FF24.31247.3153320.735730882550.407780414710590.972024819445958655214224DRYL
2019-11-06 04:00:16FORECAST20204012056.3242.0349.1750.595193583333330.030.030.170.2FF24.32249.3253320.259280955860.190616269027880.972095148201398655214224DRYL
2019-11-06 00:00:13FORECAST20204012056.441.3748.8850.0656799999999990.08050.08050.170.2505FF24.4220.453319.885612815670.0210100870497330.972652506794538655214224DRYL
2019-11-05 20:00:11FORECAST20204012056.4341.0848.7550.995105333333330.08070.08070.170.2507FF24.43248.4353320.541158505420.318972216381590.972859114789988655214224DRYL
2019-11-05 16:00:11FORECAST20204012056.7641.6549.2051.135380.08120.08120.170.2512FF24.76247.7653320.639963206790.364048201425720.975047266083138655214224DRYL
2019-11-05 12:00:11FORECAST20204012056.7941.6549.2200.08120.08120.170.2512FF24.79249.7953319.8392285849300.975238657216218655215230DRYL
2019-11-05 08:00:11FORECAST20204012054.4543.1748.8100.01160.01160.170.1816FF22.45247.4553319.8392285849300.956142094477928655215230DRYL
2019-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20204012054.4643.1648.8100.01160.01160.170.1816FF22.46241.4653319.8392285849300.956243697524048655215230DRYL
2019-11-05 00:00:13FORECAST20204012056.1444.6850.4100.01630.01630.170.1863FF24.14227.1453319.8392285849300.970806532482698655215230DRYL
2019-11-04 20:00:12FORECAST20204012056.9646.3851.6700.01640.01640.170.1864FF24.96250.9653319.8392285849300.976300147145988655215230DRYL
2019-11-04 16:00:12FORECAST20204012054.3244.9549.63500.03410.03410.170.2041FF22.32247.3253319.8392285849300.954803916417758655215230DRYL
2019-11-04 12:00:12FORECAST20204012054.3444.9849.6600.03410.03410.170.2041FF22.34249.3453319.8392285849300.955011895952578655215230DRYL
2019-11-04 08:00:11FORECAST20204012053.8743.8548.8600.09360.09360.170.2636FF21.87245.8753319.8392285849300.949917220220038655225260DRYH
2019-11-04 04:00:12FORECAST20204012052.343.2247.7600.12560.12560.180.3056FF20.3244.353319.8392285849300.929518807990488655225260DRYH
2019-11-04 00:00:13FORECAST20204012052.2943.2347.7600.12560.12560.170.2956FF20.29234.2953319.8392285849300.92937102413748655225260DRYH
2019-11-03 20:00:12FORECAST20204012054.1544.6849.41500.67241.20240.181.3824FF22.15244.1553319.8392285849300.9530047992961286552452120DRYVH
2019-11-03 16:00:12FORECAST20204012051.6844.1847.9300.72851.25850.181.4385FF19.68242.6853319.8392285849300.9199001002799686552452120DRYVH
2019-11-03 12:00:11FORECAST20204012051.7144.247.95500.72851.25850.171.4285FF19.71242.7153319.8392285849300.9203872016879886552452120DRYVH
2019-11-03 08:00:12FORECAST20204012052.7143.8648.28502.2422.9520.173.122TF20.71233.7153319.8392285849300.9353762302302586552552150DRYVH
2019-11-03 04:00:12FORECAST20204012052.9545.9549.4502.42493.17490.173.3449TF20.95231.9553319.8392285849300.9386258088192286552552150DRYVH
2019-11-03 00:00:13FORECAST20204012052.5344.3948.4602.57763.42760.173.5976TF20.53210.5353319.8392285849300.9328528330381986552552150DRYVH
2019-11-02 20:00:11FORECAST20204012052.5644.4148.48502.05072.90070.173.0707TF20.56233.5653319.8392285849300.933278592802286552552150DRYVH
2019-11-02 16:00:12FORECAST20204012050.7645.0447.901.77432.12430.162.2843FF18.76230.7653319.8392285849300.9038505804531786552552150DRYVH
2019-11-02 12:00:12FORECAST20204012048.245.4446.8202.15683.81680.163.9768TF16.2225.253319.8392285849300.8471094906028386452552137.5DRYVH
2019-11-02 08:00:12FORECAST20204012048.2245.847.0101.44773.10770.163.2677TF16.22226.2253319.8392285849300.8476246618757886452552137.5DRYVH
2019-11-02 04:00:12FORECAST20204012046.3345.645.96500.49232.24230.172.4123FF14.33222.3353319.8392285849300.7938779660547186452552137.5DRYVH